Predict the Future With Your Eyes, Not With Numbers!
The world is changing. I didn't need to tell you that. Can you see it? Do you look around and see the differences? Do you see what it was when you were growing up to now? Can you then predict what it will be in the future? It shouldn't be too hard if you just look around with your EYES!
A lot of buys today could be done by just understanding where the world is heading, by predicting where products are moving towards, where technology is taking us. Let's get to the point as I talk about stocks and their past, present, and futures. Disregard stock price for now. Short term fluctuations are clear. Long term fluctuations generally follow macro economic and technological trends.
NFLX: What can I say? I could talk about the stock price but let's disregard that. Let's see where it was. It is a distributor of software. That is what it is. It distributes games and different video to you. Now, how they do that might change. In fact, it has. It went from mailing the actual software to sending it to you electronically. Can you see how a company like this would decline? I don't. If the current trends continue, Netflix should be around a long time. Friends use it. The business model seems simple. Although there is some fishy things going on in the financial world of Netflix, it is clearly the leader in this market.
WEN: A namebrand and fast food chain that is going down. You drive past them and they are empty. Buildings are falling apart, parking lots are damaged, insides seem dirty. How does Wendy's come back like a McDonald's of 2002-03 era? You do what I've been saying for years. You renovate, you renew, you clean, you improve. These are things Wendy's refuses to do. It is probably because they lack the leadership or the willpower. All I know is that if I generally don't like a food place, others don't. This company will continue to be below mediocre until something changes.
MSFT: A company that was destined for world takeover is now slowly losing to itself, open source software, and to other competitors. The company that sees the way to deliver software that works for less money and is most reliable will win. Microsoft doesn't appear to be that company. I'd like for someone to tell me why I'm using half a gig of ram just to run the OS I'm using here to type this out. Makes no sense when you figure the OS has changed very little from a system's standpoint since Windows 2000. It must be the graphics! Yes, that is it! All those extras that do nothing but slow the computer down. Vista doesn't help either. Also Sony is keeping the XBOX at bay as well. Bill Gates is getting older and the company seems to have surrendered itself to creating new breakthrough products. This is only true if you don't think they can team with Nokia to create something great.
SRZ: Retirement home company that is on the way up. Do you believe it though? After selling off a bunch of properties, they produced a great quarter this morning. I used to own SRZ at around $3. Sold for a decent profit. Will have to see what it does. But let's look bigtime. Retirees will increase greatly the next 10 years. Where will they stay? If SRZ can get out of debt, the future share price could be very unfamiliar when compared to today's price.
TSLA: Now do you really believe gas will last forever? What better company to invest in than the front runner of electric cars? They could be to the electric automobile what Ford was to the gasoline automobile. The future dividends of a buy order today is uncertain. The stock could very well drop gradually the next few years until the first cars hit the road for the typical middle class consumer. But when it does, who will be there to compete? This could be a monopoly in the making. Only time will tell.
Doing some brainstorming, here are ideas I came up with that could completely change the game for their own markets:
1) How about fast food in the grocery store - the frozen food section? You see PF Changs doing it. You see TGIFridays doing it. How about having something call McDonald's Breakfast to Go that requires about 1 min of heating time in the microwave? This could be a market that would work.
2) Speaking of cell phones, how about we really flip the script. People want cool. People want reliability. People want durability. People want something that is trendsetting. How about the Watch Phone. Watches these days are getting bigger and bigger on the face. In fact, you will see watches will faces that are nearly the width of the wrist. How about a watch (maybe from Nokia/Microsoft), that is actually a phone but also tells time. It can be touch screen, about the size of a iPod Shuffle, and you can do call like that?