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Predictions for retail earnings based on Google data

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August 13, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: ANF , URBN , JWN

See yesterday's post regarding unemployment insurance claims for background.

Here's what Google search volume suggests about revenues for the upcoming quarter. ANF and URBN report tomorrow morning, Nordstrom reports next week.

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)

20% decline in year-over-year search volume for "abercrombie" and "hollister" for the quarter.

The correlation with Google data is fairly consistent, so we will likely see a sizable decline in revenue (which is more or less what analysts are predicting).

 

Urban Foutfitters (URBN)

16% decline in year-over-year search volume for "urban outfitters" for the quarter.

The correlation between search volume and reported revenue for the last two quarters is not very good for this one, so I wouldn't put too much faith in this prediction.

Nordstrom (JWN)

8% increase in year-over-year search volume for "nordstrom" for the quarter.

As with URBN, I wouldn't put too much trust in this prediction; search volume in the previous quarter grew 11% but revenue shrank by 8%. 

1 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 14, 2009 at 9:15 AM, gunark (84.20) wrote:

The ANF and URBN numbers proved right on point. 20% predicted vs 24% actual decline in revenue for ANF and 16% predicted vs 14% actual decline in revenue for URBN.

However, as expected, the search volume increase in Nordstrom was not accurate in predicting the decline in reported revenue. If I had bet money on this though I would have still come out on top since Nordstrom raised it's 2Q outlook yesterday morning.

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