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TMFDeej (99.47)

Preliminary Estimate: U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Down 25% Y-O-Y

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October 01, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: F , TM , HMC

The automakers have slowly started to announce their sales results.  After speaking with a few people and looking at a few press releases it looks like U.S. light vehicle sales were down around 25% year-over-year in September.  If so, that would put the total at over the 700,000 level, say 710,000 to 725,000 or so.

That's a far cry from the 1.26 million Cash for Clunkers stimulated sales level that we saw in August, but it definitely is a heck of an improvement over the 500,000 to 600,000 pace that the industry was experiencing during the first half of the month.  Business definitely seemed to pick up as September progressed.  It will be very interesting to see where sales settle after all of the clunkers dust clears, i.e. inventory levels normalize and the pulled forward sales have been worked through.

This is a very preliminary number.  I'll report back with more detailed information.

Deej

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 01, 2009 at 1:31 PM, brickcityman (< 20) wrote:

Question are there any time considerations that need to be taken into account?

 

Your talking about extrapolating sales from portions of months, but yet isn't there a pronounced trend in sales patterns over the course of a given month (e.g. backloaded due to better deals to meet quotas at end of each month).   Also are there any seasonalities associated with the fall?  (e.g. new car lines displacing older models off lots or pickup in sales to people who want the newer designs)?

 

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#2) On October 01, 2009 at 2:35 PM, russiangambit (29.94) wrote:

I don't know, 50% down at GM seems pretty bad. And now they are going to shut down Saturn

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