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ChrisGraley (30.21)

Prepare for the dip.

Recs

26

October 08, 2010 – Comments (16)

In my opinion the biggest market turning earnings reports come out next week.

 

CSX will start off Tuesday on a downer and Intel will pile on. I expect a very big reaction and have just unloaded a bunch of my green thumbs and added a bunch of red thumbs.

Wednesday, JP Morgan will surprise with disappointing earnings as well. ANOTHER DOWN DAY ON THE MARKET.

Thursday, Google will surprise with better than expected earnings, but I think the market reaction will be weak.

Friday GE will give the market even more bad news and the double dip will go into motion.

This is a very, very, very, speculative post, and people shouldn't try to time the market, but I'm timing the market. 

The fundamentals of the market are non-existent and the market has been propped by inflation and accounting tricks for way to long. We are finally going to see a catalyst to take us back to reality. It won't last long because our government has been preparing for it and is ready to announce QE2.

My advice is to stay away from green thumbs (other than maybe Google) and short crap this week. 

 

16 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 09, 2010 at 12:15 AM, dragonLZ (99.70) wrote:

Chris, Have you noticed that Media was HOT today?

LEE was up 12%, GCI and MEG 8%, ETM 6.5%, SSP and SBGI 4%,...

Don't forget to short some of them... :)

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#2) On October 09, 2010 at 12:52 AM, ChrisGraley (30.21) wrote:

I did short a few.

Honestly dragon we should get together on this.

You seem to consistently make money on the upside and I seem to do the same on the downside.

together maybe we could pull off a hostile takeover of Time Warner or something. 

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#3) On October 09, 2010 at 2:34 AM, dragonLZ (99.70) wrote:

I like your idea, Chris. I hope you are a team player.

Btw., I'm not buying your double dip. You were on top long enough. Now it's time for these lines to cross again... :)

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#4) On October 09, 2010 at 2:49 AM, portefeuille (99.57) wrote:

#3 really pretty. a similar one is here ...

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#5) On October 09, 2010 at 10:58 AM, kdakota630 (29.74) wrote:

The fundamentals of the market are non-existent and the market has been propped by inflation and accounting tricks for way to long.

Agreed, although a person I follow closely has a slightly different prediction:  

Oct 3 - I noted in my September 23rd post that despite poor fundamentals, the technical picture of the market was much brighter. A run to the upper end of the trading range was possible and even more likely now that we’ve broke above the previously mentioned neckline. The trading range I've spoken about continues and it appears we can now test the top of it. If this occurs, it may offer speculators a chance to implement some bearish call spreads. Stay tuned.

Oct 7 - While tomorrow’s jobs (or lack there of) report is a potential market mover, I continue to believe barring a significant negative surprise, the market is going to continually grope towards the top of the trading range I’ve spoken about for months.

Also, regarding gold on Oct 3:

A day, a week or even a little longer sideways to somewhat lower would actually be a good thing IMHO. If we just shoot up again this week, we could set ourselves up for a far sharper correction then is needed at this time.

I'm no different from most people in my belief that we're going to have a double-dip.  I'm just trying my best to continue being patient.

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#6) On October 09, 2010 at 1:07 PM, FT21 (72.92) wrote:

If banks report bad earnings we go higher if they report good earnings we go lower banks are expected to underperform so any banks that beat we may see a big drop.

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#7) On October 09, 2010 at 1:14 PM, cbwang888 (25.91) wrote:

The dip will be on USD index to 75 and probably 72 by the year end. Overall equity market will keep on going up as QE2 will soon becomes reality and bigger than QE1.

I'm going to add steel makers in my portfolios next week. Maybe Dec SMN puts. CORN zoomed 14% last Friday. What is wrong with inflation? US gov is hiding the fact and keep on telling us deflation is the devil.

Double dip will be for USD.

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#8) On October 09, 2010 at 1:48 PM, dwot (97.29) wrote:

I am still just watching... 

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#9) On October 09, 2010 at 10:19 PM, walt373 (99.76) wrote:

Hmm quite a detailed prediction :)

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#10) On October 15, 2010 at 9:35 PM, dragonLZ (99.70) wrote:

Nice call on GOOG, Chris.

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#11) On October 16, 2010 at 12:45 AM, walt373 (99.76) wrote:

Google will surprise with better than expected earnings, but I think the market reaction will be weak.

Well, he got half of it right...

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#12) On October 19, 2010 at 8:45 PM, ChrisGraley (30.21) wrote:

Bah!

I can't believe that JPM can still hide losses so well. 

I still think that dip is coming and there is more bad news to come in the banking center.

GOOG was the easiest pick. Android is blowing away the competition on phones and I think that they'll do the same with tablets later. 

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#13) On October 19, 2010 at 9:50 PM, dragonLZ (99.70) wrote:

I still think that dip is coming and there is more bad news to come in the banking center.

You can't be serious...

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#14) On October 20, 2010 at 8:02 PM, ChrisGraley (30.21) wrote:

Can you honestly tell me book value for any bank right now dragon?

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#15) On October 22, 2010 at 9:11 PM, dragonLZ (99.70) wrote:

Chris, I commented on the dip part...

p.s.

Btw., I honestly don't know what book value is.

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#16) On December 20, 2010 at 12:19 PM, dragonLZ (99.70) wrote:

I told you these lines are gonna cross soon... :)

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