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HarryCaraysGhost (99.61)

Profit taking.

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14

January 31, 2013 – Comments (11) | RELATED TICKERS: BUD

What up, my fellow Fools.

Recently I had to make a difficult decision, to sell the BUD shares that I bought from 08-09 or hold.

PROS for selling-

1. My original thesis that new management would cut costs was complete, not much more they could cut.

2. Everyone knows about the stock now, I was buying while still on the pinks after merge.

3. No one ever went broke taking profits.

4. It's a two bagger + some.

CONS for selling-

1. It's my beverage of choice.

2. Really dug the lump sum dividend payment, but at (1.4%) yield pretty sure I could find another ADR that pays better.

3.History, this was one of the first stocks that I purchased. (those of you that have been around long enough might remember my drunken ramblings about the stock and why it will go higher)

4. Breaking up is hard to do.

Wish I could say I was smart enough that I saw this coming-

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/01/31/us-challenges-anheuser-busch-merger.aspx

But that was just dumb luck.

So as you can see my main motivation for holding was only sentimental at best, and thats a pretty piss poor investment thesis. 

Cheers.

11 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 01, 2013 at 12:20 AM, blesto (31.06) wrote:

Con #5

That 25% Belgium tax on the divi really blows too.

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#2) On February 01, 2013 at 10:09 AM, Teacherman1 (33.71) wrote:

Sell, Harry, Sell.:)

You can still support them by sipping.:)

Good call.

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#3) On February 01, 2013 at 3:36 PM, EnigmaDude (77.07) wrote:

My stocks usually take off right after I sell them!  But there is nothing wrong with locking in a profit!  Nice call.

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#4) On February 01, 2013 at 3:56 PM, JohnCLeven (73.75) wrote:

I have a good friend who does the pricing for Miller, and I previously worked in a beer store while in college. the basic storyline we've both seen is that BUD and MillerCoors are really being hammered by both craft beer, and moreso by liquor. This is the case in the Northeast specifically, but probably applies to the whole industry.

Bud's competitive advantaged has really been weakened with this craft beer craze. When you can get a decent case of craft for $30 vs $22 for a case of Bud, alot of people are jumping to craft.

Couple that with a macro shift to liquor (baby boomers) and Bud simply dosen't have the pricing power it did in the 1990s and early 2000s.

Just two guys experiences, but I hope that helps.

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#5) On February 01, 2013 at 9:20 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.61) wrote:

Hey blesto, I didn't have Bud in an IRA so I was able to write off the foreign tax-

http://www.ehow.com/info_8768548_foreign-security-withholding-stock-dividends.html

I really liked the lump sum as I could use that along with my other dividends from the year to either purchase a new stock (recently MTGE) or add to existing posistions.

Roundabout way of doing a DRIP.

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#6) On February 01, 2013 at 9:26 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.61) wrote:

Thanx Teacherman, enjoying an ice cold Bud as I type :)

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#7) On February 01, 2013 at 9:42 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.61) wrote:

EnigmaDude, Ha,ha,ha I feel your pain my brother. Been there done that many times.

Welp buds up $3.68 today closing in on a new 52 week high.

And theres this-

http://www.businessinsider.com/shares-of-anheuser-busch-do-shockingly-well-in-the-days-after-the-super-bowl-2013-2?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+clusterstock+%28ClusterStock%29

But I really wanted to dump my shares before years end, it made sense for tax puposes.

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#8) On February 01, 2013 at 9:57 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.61) wrote:

Thanks John, I completly agree. Margins in the booze biz are razor thin,and I no longer saw a catalyst for Bud to go higher.

Bud  had been making inroads to the craft beer industry.

From memory I believe they bought Chicagos own Goose Island but that was at least a year ago so I believe that would already be factored into the share price.

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#9) On February 01, 2013 at 10:17 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.61) wrote:

Thanks John, I completly agree. Margins in the booze biz are razor thin,and I no longer saw a catalyst for Bud to go higher.

Bud  had been making inroads to the craft beer industry.

From memory I believe they bought Chicagos own Goose Island but that was at least a year ago so I believe that would already be factored into the share price.

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#10) On February 01, 2013 at 10:42 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.61) wrote:

Almost forgot Con #6-

If I owned both Bud and KO, how would I ever win at Jim Cramers "Am I diversified" ?.....;)

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#11) On February 02, 2013 at 12:57 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.61) wrote:

Found a link for the Goose island story-

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2011-03-28/business/ct-biz-0329-goose-ab-20110328_1_chicago-s-goose-island-craft-beer-craft-brewers

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