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reddingrunner (92.11)

Profiting from my own ignorance.



May 27, 2008 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: MT , X

Demand for steel can be expected to continue to soar for the next decade or more.  Just travel the world a little and you'll see why- huge construction projects everywhere you look.

So I looked at steel stocks, thinking I'd add a few to my CAPS picks. I have a little exposure here, but not much.  But as I looked at the 8 or so major players I just couldn't figure out if they were priced high or low or which (if any) would outperform.  

So I walked away simply because I knew what I didn't know.  I could have made some guesses, but I only like to make guesses when I feel at least 60% that I'm right.  I like to base my guesses on sufficient data, not on how my bunions are feeling.

Maybe I missed an opportunity.  But I don't understand enough about the sector, especially about the factors that will affect supply during the next decade.  Historically I've done a lot better with guesses I didn't make than I have with guesses I did make. 

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 27, 2008 at 10:22 PM, Varchild2008 (84.12) wrote:

Take a look at SID (Brazillian Steel)....  But, I am predicting SID's current correction (fall) continues for a few more days. 

I'd try to get into SID around $45 a share.  It hit a 52 week high not too long ago but it is overbought and should continue to slip until it reaches a more real share price.  Hold off until it starts trading up in after hours trading if SID is a guess you want or don't want to make.

But ultimately.  Look at any Steal Stock and you'll see a good investment.  U.S. Steel, Nuevor (did I spell that correctly?) is Jim Cramer's current favorite pick.  Lots to choose from.

Steal is a Commodity like all other commodity Stocks that simply benefit when inflation goes up.  All Steal Stocks are essentially LONG LONG LONG term investments.

I'm trying to find some extra cash to buy more Steal Shares as price corrections bring some of the stocks to a more reasonable share price.

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#2) On May 28, 2008 at 12:30 AM, DarkToast (32.08) wrote:



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