Profiting from my own ignorance.
Demand for steel can be expected to continue to soar for the next decade or more. Just travel the world a little and you'll see why- huge construction projects everywhere you look.
So I looked at steel stocks, thinking I'd add a few to my CAPS picks. I have a little exposure here, but not much. But as I looked at the 8 or so major players I just couldn't figure out if they were priced high or low or which (if any) would outperform.
So I walked away simply because I knew what I didn't know. I could have made some guesses, but I only like to make guesses when I feel at least 60% that I'm right. I like to base my guesses on sufficient data, not on how my bunions are feeling.
Maybe I missed an opportunity. But I don't understand enough about the sector, especially about the factors that will affect supply during the next decade. Historically I've done a lot better with guesses I didn't make than I have with guesses I did make.