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goldminingXpert (28.83)

Proof of the Dangers of Bottom-Fishing



March 17, 2009 – Comments (19) | RELATED TICKERS: C , F

I, your humble GMX, am not the sharpest tool in the shed so to speak. That said, I was shocked, absolutely shocked in fact to learn that I was the score leader for Citigroup (C) with roughly 150 points. This is a stock I've never traded with real money and have only picked 4 or 5 times here on CAPS. The bulk of my points came from two lucky green thumbs, the first in the fall market crash and the second just last week. I got in at 1.65 and here we sit at 2.50 now. Am I an expert on the stock? Most definitely not. I wouldn't buy shares of this under any circumstance no matter how bullish my technical indicators looked (and they looked very bullish--hence the green thumbs.) Now, the question is, of all the people who profess to be geniuses who always buy the bottom tick on a stock--why aren't YOU the score leader on C? Just over the past year, the stock has gone from 27 to 14 to 22 to 13 to 24 to 12 to 19 to 3 (!) to 9 to .97 to 2.50. It's shameful that the score leader only has 150 points on this stock with all this volatility. Where are all the gurus who always go posting, I bought xxxxx # of shares at 2.90 and unloaded at 9 the next week, why aren't you scoring better than oblivous old GMX on C--a stock that I don't even have on my quote board most days?

I'm on spring break so expect part 2 of my gold series and the next part of my retrospective shortly, but for now as I've finally recovered from some grueling classwork, let's talk about C for a bit.

19 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 17, 2009 at 4:40 PM, goldminingXpert (28.83) wrote:

Oops, meant to explain the title of my post. The people who claim it is so easy to call bottom--well, where's the proof. I don't see it on CAPS. So many of these bank stocks should have scoreleaders with 300+ points if these bottom-buyers were such geniuses. I'm guessing they get washed out pretty quickly since every double you get is probably matched by three 0's (LEH, FRE, FNM, ACAS, ENE, and IMB all come to mind--so many geniuses were buying those cheap for the inevitable turnaround. Oops.)

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#2) On March 17, 2009 at 5:09 PM, RVAspeculator (28.28) wrote:

Busy buying it and selling it and not busy putting a silly green thumb on it in CAPS.  You can't even green thumb at $1 anyway, right??

CAPS is a game...   Start paying folks for CAPS performance and you would see something MUCH different.  People would be playing the close 5% winners and re-open, shoot for mega long shots, red thumb scam penny stocks game all day long...  

Besides, I think there are only like 100 active players out here and 66,000 ghost accounts.  :)

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#3) On March 17, 2009 at 5:12 PM, RVAspeculator (28.28) wrote:

But don't listen to me, I green thumbed it at $3!  :)

Of course if I were really gaming this thing I would have closed that pick and re-opened it when it got to exactly $1.50 (where the game lets you pick it)

It may be a game but its still fun to play, which is why I am out here.

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#4) On March 17, 2009 at 5:15 PM, portefeuille (98.91) wrote:

same here!
I am currently score leader for ENZN, CX, SNO, CS, ACGY, DB, KLAC, CIEN and I am/have been one of the "Top Members" in the following tags:
Large Cap Stocks
Mid Cap Stocks
Nasdaq 100 Stocks
Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment Stocks
Information Technology Stocks
Farm Products Stocks
Foreign Regional Banks Stocks
Beverages - Brewers Stocks
Business Development Companies Stocks
Construction Materials Stocks
Spain Stocks
Switzerland Stocks
Mexico Stocks
Stockholm Stocks
Connecticut Stocks
Detroit Stocks
Business Week 50

(some of these tags feature quite a few stocks).

And I am a caps player since last november and almost exclusively make outperform calls (no short ETFs).

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#5) On March 17, 2009 at 5:17 PM, goldminingXpert (28.83) wrote:

C--139 new picks since Monday morning. This community is actually quite active--it just isn't that good at bottom fishing. (and that is for a good reason--if bottom-fishing were so easy everyone would be doing it.)

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#6) On March 17, 2009 at 5:19 PM, RVAspeculator (28.28) wrote:

Last post out here and I will leave your blog be GMX...  :)

Another huge thing is the fact that the CAPS game does not let you have a stop.

I bottom fish this junk crap all the time but get stopped out for pennies and when I am right make 200%+.   Out in CAPS you are stuck with taking a 50% beating over the next 7 day game holding period when in real life you were stopped out so long ago you forgot about the trade already.

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#7) On March 17, 2009 at 5:22 PM, goldminingXpert (28.83) wrote:

The vast majority of retail traders buying a C under 2 bucks aren't using stops--they're buying and praying it goes back to 5 or 10 or more. I know several people who got multiple "this stock is worthless, here's your proof for a tax write-off" statements last year.

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#8) On March 17, 2009 at 5:24 PM, goldminingXpert (28.83) wrote:

C also has 13,000+ picks here, so it is fruitless to argue that people aren't trying to score big points off this stock--they just aren't succeeding despite the numerous 50-100%+ swing in the stock just within the past year.

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#9) On March 17, 2009 at 5:39 PM, portefeuille (98.91) wrote:

zzlangerhans is the score leader for 8 stocks for a reason - he has some knowledge of the biotech sector. Here is what wrote on the topic here

" #3) On March 06, 2009 at 8:50 PM, zzlangerhans (99.72) wrote: Thanks for the fixes. I was totally disgusted with the new page so these are improvements, although I still prefer the old page for my purposes. One really huge improvement would be for those of us that operate with a fixed "harem" of stocks we know and love and obsessively want to possess on MF. The quest for score leadership is what keeps us coming back every day. We need an option on the ticker page in addition to Active, Ended, All which shows the cumulative score rankings so we don't have to keep adding up our scores to see how close we are to score leader. I think you would be very surprised how important this is to many of your top contributors in terms of pitching and blogging. Those of us who don't play ultrashort ETF's and .OB bid/ask spreads have no chance at cracking the top 10, so it's nice to have the chance to compete for something on a smaller scale. Also, it would be nice for the score comparison box to go back further than 3 months - say back to the beginning. Hopefully someone is listening here. I'm not asking for the world."

I agree.

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#10) On March 17, 2009 at 5:54 PM, brwn8484 (< 20) wrote:

Here are my picks for a stock.  No Im not score leader but I have been playing ranges quite well.  I would expect that the buy and hold strategy would have yielded a much lower return.  Someone several posts back mentioned the non-real holding period of 7 days on MF picks.  This prevents a true comparison of a real strategy of swing trading that capitalizes on troughs (and Peaks).

In addition, I use seasonality to improve the odds of my picks.  I am not the highest scoring MF menber... but I do ok with my personal portfolio.  I have outperformed a buy and hold strategy every year in my real portfolio every year for the last 5 years.

Doesnt mean that it will work for everyone... but it's fun!

01/08/09 AOB 3M $6.30$4.16
( +4.79%)-26.19%-4.95%+21.24 1/16/2009 @ $4.65 12/10/08 AOB 1Y $5.98$4.16
( +4.79%)+6.86%+1.72%+5.14 12/17/2008 @ $6.39 06/05/08 AOB 3W $11.46$4.16
( +4.79%)-16.14%-6.50%+9.64 6/24/2008 @ $9.61 08/09/07 AOB 1Y $8.75$4.16
( +4.79%)+2.40%-1.49%+3.89 8/21/2007 @ $8.96 06/25/08 AOB 3W $9.98$4.16
( +4.79%)-4.51%-6.31%+1.80 7/28/2008 @ $9.53 08/24/07 AOB 3W $9.06$4.16
( +4.79%)+3.20%+1.30%+1.90 8/31/2007 @ $9.35 11/03/08 AOB 1Y $6.14$4.16
( +4.79%)+5.05%-4.38%+9.43 11/10/2008 @ $6.45 10/07/08 AOB 3M $5.19$4.16
( +4.79%)+8.86%-6.54%+15.40 10/15/2008 @ $5.65 05/01/07 AOB 3W $9.64$4.16
( +4.79%)-18.58%+0.32%+18.90 8/8/2007 @ $7.85 12/19/08 AOB 1Y $6.05$4.16
( +4.79%)+7.60%-2.04%+9.65 12/29/2008 @ $6.51 11/21/08 AOB 1Y $4.43$4.16
( +4.79%)+32.96%+13.57%+19.39 12/1/2008 @ $5.89 10/20/08 AOB NS $5.50$4.16
( +4.79%)+5.64%-0.64%+6.28 10/31/2008 @ $5.81 03/28/08 AOB 3W $8.54$4.16
( +4.79%)+0.12%+0.09%+0.03 4/15/2008 @ $8.55 02/18/09 AOB 1Y $4.43$4.16
( +4.79%)-8.58%-10.74%+2.16 3/10/2009 @ $4.05 Report this comment
#11) On March 17, 2009 at 6:38 PM, RVAspeculator (28.28) wrote:

My best point was the no stops issue.

I got stopped out of the thing 4 times but recently rode it for a 130% gain which made me many times the money I lost on the small stop outs. 

Get stopped out for pennies and sell for dollars is the only way to make money fishing junk.

Since CAPS allows no stops your fishing attempt is "frozen in time" for 7 days.  I believe this is the real reason doing that in CAPS is so hard.   You have to nail the real bottom while in real life you can try a million times with little penalty at all.

As for your comment about "Most people are buying it without a stop"...    I want to call those people aside and talk to them... Maybe get them committed.  Buying Citi without a stop?!?    People really do that? 

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#12) On March 17, 2009 at 7:16 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

I wanted to pick it at $1 to go up but that is not allowed.

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#13) On March 17, 2009 at 8:14 PM, goldminingXpert (28.83) wrote:

As for your comment about "Most people are buying it without a stop"...    I want to call those people aside and talk to them... Maybe get them committed.  Buying Citi without a stop?!?    People really do that?

Those were the type of people this post was aimed at. Not you.

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#14) On March 18, 2009 at 3:46 PM, KamranatUCLA (29.46) wrote:

My hat's off to the master! I did recomend BLTU last year and their stock went down from 2.90 to 1 dollar as of now. But the things I love about their products haven't changed.

God forbid if you have to do a filling, you know how painfull it can get. These guys use laser to make the hole in your tooth for the filling...without any harmful navokain, without any pain.

I've heard from sooooo many people that great prodcuts don't neccessary make great stocks, many give me Select Comfort as an example. This is correct

But what can I say, I am just in love with this product and just can't wait until more people try it. If you ever go to a dentist who uses waterlase, there is NO WAY you go back to old ways of drilling.

Laser drilling is painless, makes a smoother hole for the bonding agent to bond, doesn't damage the nerves in your tooth, it's 100% hygenic (no need to wash the drills, and god knows what kind of disease you can get from those drills, remember poeple getting aids from those?). Like I said if anyone ever tries this they will never, ever go back.

That said I believe this is very much like low radiation X-rays. Would you want to go to a dentis who uses world war 2 x-ray machines that can boil your nuts and make you impotenet?  So i think more and more dentists HAVE to have this. They really don't have much competition right now and they have already established a good brand don't know man...i just love what they are doing. 

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#15) On March 18, 2009 at 3:48 PM, KamranatUCLA (29.46) wrote:


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#16) On March 18, 2009 at 4:02 PM, goldminingXpert (28.83) wrote:

okay fine--you still sound like a pumper--but at least you have your reasons for owning it.

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#17) On March 18, 2009 at 6:07 PM, portefeuille (98.91) wrote:

Here is the best outperform call for each of the "top 10 players":

everydayinvestor NED 52.71%, specbear RNO.DL 130,76%, goldminingxpert C 82.48%,  dwot RZ 183,93%, tenmiles EBS 198.06%, nicvo FCX 135.42%, JRJC 216.23%, bravobevo FSLR 547.09%, tdrh GTU 71.11%, chk999 ACH 105.66%.

Combined they have made some 5000 outperform calls.



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#18) On March 18, 2009 at 6:14 PM, portefeuille (98.91) wrote:

Noah Education Holdings, Ltd. (NED)
Rio Narcea Gold Mines (USA) (RNO.DL)
Citigroup, Inc. (C)
Raser Technologies, Inc. (RZ)
Emergent BioSolutions, Inc. (EBS)
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX)
China Finance Online Co. Ltd. (JRJC)
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)
Central GoldTrust (GTU)
Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. (ACH)

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#19) On March 18, 2009 at 6:23 PM, goldminingXpert (28.83) wrote:

It's tough to find big winners when the market is crashing, so, if your list was posted as an effort to shame us bears (you are a yesman after all in CAPSpeak), wait until a bull market starts. I'm happy I found any 80%+ gainers (well, two--I hooked up with C twice. ;) ) I, and most of my top 10 fellow fools have found lots of 100% losers--and in real companies too, not just .OBS

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