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JakilaTheHun (99.93)

Prove Your Worth CAPS: Give Me 3 Stock Pitches

Recs

28

January 09, 2014 – Comments (42)

Hey all,

Haven't posted a blog here in awhile.  Activity in CAPS-land has certainly died down over the past few years, but I need some input for a new project and this seems like the perfect forum (so long as people are still reading).  

I've been slacking off on my investment writing over the past year and I want to start writing and researching more.  I've decided to try out a new concept "15 Minute Analysis."  I take three stock pitches, and then I analyze the companies myself for 15 minutes, and give my opinion based on that. The goal is to find out as much as I can about the company and provide some sort of basic "guesstimate" of valuation in that short timeframe. 

What I need from you all:  investment ideas.  If you want to participate, here be the rules:

Pick a company and ticker symbol.  Then, give me maybe 2-5 sentences worth ("a pitch" in CAPS terminology) about why the company is a good / bad / interesting / etc investment.  I'll read over the pitches and pick out three companies that I find interesting for the column. 

This can be a stock you want to invest in.  It can be a stock you hate.  Or it could be one that you find fascinating.  Doesn't really matter.  For the record, I'm probably more likely to pick companies out of sectors that are more amenable to a quick and dirty analysis, which likely means no biotech start-ups, complex insurance investments, etc.

The goal here isn't to write a thorough research report.  It's merely to help start the research process for others doing their own due diligence.  If this idea is successful, then the articles will be posted over at Seeking Alpha. 

Give me some pitches, peoples!

42 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 09, 2014 at 3:58 PM, Mega (99.96) wrote:

Samsung Electronics - SSNLF

Samsung is the world's largest mobile device and semiconductor manufacturing company. Over the past few years they have earned a huge amount of profits while many competitors have stumbled (most as a result of poor design strategy). Like Apple their competitive advantages include vertical integration, scale, financial strength, technological expertise and brand. As Android continues to grow Samsung is in good position to continue growing along with it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samsung_Electronics

Some financial metrics can be found here. They trade at 7x trailing earnings and 1.2x tangible book. http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Financials?s=A005930:KSC

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#2) On January 09, 2014 at 4:11 PM, Teacherman1 (55.51) wrote:

Fuel Tech -FTEK In the business of offering materials and services to improve efficiency and clean up pollution.

Have a great market opportunity as more electric utilities are being "strongly encouraged" to switch from coal to gas, but find the conversion too expensive.

Have a strong balance sheet, little debt other than accounts payable, and making money.

Lots of room to grow, but will take some time.

Recently got "run up" a little to quickly, but kind of "rocking in the cradle" in the $7 range.

I own them and think they will pay off over time, but that is JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it.

Only have time for one now.

Good to see you back.

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#3) On January 09, 2014 at 4:52 PM, lemoneater (80.26) wrote:

Staples (SPLS) The polyglot e-commerce stock. I did not know that they had a web presence in such countries as Germany and the Netherlands. Now I'm regarding them as an international stock more than just one's local office store.

CubeSmart (CUBE) Store smarter, not harder. Besides having a 20% discount for military customers--a constantly mobile part of our population, they have storage with wifi so one can keep an eye on one's belongings.

Whitewave (WWAV) invest in spinach, not weed. It is a food company ranging from coffee creamer to salads. I'm hoping the acquisition of Earthbound will add organic growth to the company.

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#4) On January 09, 2014 at 4:55 PM, lemoneater (80.26) wrote:

P.S. I just added these three stocks to my real life portfolio.

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#5) On January 09, 2014 at 8:07 PM, rd80 (98.31) wrote:

GE - If the talking heads are correct and we see economic activity pick up a little steam, the combination of a wide range of industrial products plus finance should do very well.  A forward PE of 16 isn't bargain territory, but it's reasonable and a dividend yield over 3% looks pretty good and it gets there with a reasonable payout ratio.

However, it certainly isn't very "amenable to a quick and dirty analysis."

Disclosure:  Long GE

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#6) On January 09, 2014 at 8:33 PM, valunvesthere (< 20) wrote:

UPCOMING SMARTPHONE ALL OUT BATTLE OR WAR ON THE HORIZON!

Alliance Blackberry plus Foxconn, team Google plus Motorola, and team Microsoft plus Nokia are all positioning for a all out battle which will involve Apple and Samsung. If not soon than the inevitable all out battle that is brewing is postponed and bound to happen. (Maybe battle may become war.)

SMARTPHONE ALLIANCE:

BlackBerry Limited(Nasdaq:BBRY) and Foxconn Technology Co., Ltd.(Taiwan:2354.TW)

read:

BlackBerry Enlists Foxconn to Make Phones as Sales Plunge

By Hugo Miller Dec 23, 2013 5:19 AM PT

SMARTPHONE STRATEGY:

Google Inc.(Nasdaq:GOOG) and Motorola Solutions, Inc. (NYSE:MSI)

read:

The Moto G: Why Google Inc’s Motorola is betting on the ‘Volkswagen Strategy’

Matt Hartley, Financial Post · Nov. 13, 2013 | Last Updated: Nov. 13, 2013 1:27 PM ET

MOST RECENT SMARTPHONE ACQUISITION:

Microsoft Corporation(Nasdaq:MSFT) and Nokia Corporation(NYSE:NOK)

read:

Microsoft takeover of Nokia’s smartphone business a bid to catch up to iPhone and Android

Matti Huuhtanen, Published: September 3, 2013, 10:16 am

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#7) On January 09, 2014 at 8:46 PM, awallejr (81.58) wrote:

XON - this stock really has a chance to become explosive.  They are constantly announcing joint ventures with other companies.  They design gene programs applicable in many fields such as food, energy, healthcare, environmental services.  Ground floor opportunity.

XRX -  The company is doing a massive stock buyback, it pays a decent dividend.  It transformed its business away from stodgy printing into more lucrative IT and it sells at a low P/E.  While Europe will still be a small drag, Xerox gives you valuation, transformation, pays a better yield than any bank, and you have a future catalyst in innovation. Chiplets look interesting.

KKR - they are in the asset management business.  They buy, sell, IPO companies. It generates a decent yield.  It allows a retailer to actually participate in equity investment.

 

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#8) On January 09, 2014 at 9:11 PM, Jacabardo (67.32) wrote:

AFOP - Alliance Fibre Optic Products - a small cap passive fibre optic play, its incredibly profitable off a small revenue base and revenues have been growing substantially over the past few quarters.  Its trading at 12 times 2014 earnings estimates and will grow revenue 65% in 2013 over 2012.  The current fiber optic spending cycle has plenty of runway left.

 

ASM - Avino Mines - A micro cap silver miner thats profitable with a current PE ratio of 12 and a market cap of a little over $30 million.  ASM is restarting the legendary Avino Mine after years of inactivity.  Great leverage to silver AND a profitable miner at current depressed prices with growth prospects.

 

CRZO - Carrizo Oil and Gas - a fracking play in the Eagleford Shale.  Growing quickly and inexpensive by many metrics, paying down debt and using new cash from a stock offering to further grow the (very lucrative) business. 

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#9) On January 09, 2014 at 9:19 PM, amassafortune (29.49) wrote:

UBNT, SCTY

Time will tell if you deserve a third. 

 OK, I'm easy, ATML that just had a breakout this week.

Careful, though, look at a 5-yr S&P chart and the Shiller P/E index at over 26. Buying here is not the value it was a few years ago, but these suggestions are technically sound and could do better than average, even though the market is a little rich at this time. 

 

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#10) On January 09, 2014 at 10:51 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.69) wrote:

MCZ

Mad Catz Interactive, Inc. (USA)

Hold on to your pantaloons people, this stock moves more than Michael J. Fox after a triple expresso frapachino from Starbucks.

They make mice, keyboards, joysticks and many more interactive games and devices. Which will no doubt ultimately lead to carpel tunnel syndrome and morbid obesity for todays youth.

 

Bamm, hows that for a pitch ;)

Fool disclousure, Madcatz shareholder hoping for the Christmas spike after earnings report.

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#11) On January 10, 2014 at 11:09 AM, anticitrade (99.60) wrote:

Just stopped in to see what people thought of the market.  Its good to see that Jakila is still posting!  I hope this is the year I have time to get back into investing.

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#12) On January 10, 2014 at 2:02 PM, MKArch (99.75) wrote:

Lennar, under, over, or fairly valued? At the current rate of new home construction the industry in general has about 50% upside to get back to it's long term average. The large public home builders are fairly new and only account for something like 12% of new homes so there's room for market share gains. From 1999 to the peak of the last cycle the public home builders revenues increased ~3X-4X  while home starts only increase about 33%. Some of the difference can be accounted for by prices appreciation but most of it was market share gains. It would seem to me the public builders would have an even greater advantage in access to capital in this cycle. Given Lennar's rocket ship ride off of the bottom how much of this is already baked in though?

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#13) On January 10, 2014 at 2:14 PM, MKArch (99.75) wrote:

Here's another one: Annaly (NLY) best of breed high dividend MREIT selling cheap at the bottom of the cycle or dangerous value trap?

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#14) On January 10, 2014 at 9:01 PM, awallejr (81.58) wrote:

Wow XON up over 10% today.  My put play doing great:

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/selling-puts/884307

comment #25

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#15) On January 11, 2014 at 3:03 AM, Valyooo (99.39) wrote:

PM- probably will always be my top pick  Best stock over last 50 years, great dividend, buybacks, awesome management, reasonable price, good play on china shifting towards consumerism, recession-proof, I mean seriously what is not to like here?

 

BX- with market doing well, people will be handing more money over to money managers.  They own most single family houses in the world, and I am very bullish on real estate over the next 2 years, and they pay a great dividend and have good management

 

BA- They don't have much competition, this is year 2 of the 7 year average aerospace upcycle weve seen for a few decades, good play on china growth, reasonable valuation, good floor with military, old fleets being replaced, dreamliner, stock goes up even on bad news, industry that doesnt seem to die down any time soon, amazing chart

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#16) On January 11, 2014 at 3:07 PM, MegMom12 (< 20) wrote:

Vistaprint-VPRT

I purchase their products online for a home based business.  Like the quality of products and convenience of internet purchasing. Turn around time can be slow at times.

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#17) On January 11, 2014 at 5:03 PM, Krazy8s (< 20) wrote:

The 2014 Airlines winter stress test, any suggestions in longing or shorting 9 airline stocks? note: at time of writing can not get Virgin American ticker from Motley Fool Site so used Hawaiian Holdings as substitute.

Alaska Air Group, Inc.(NYSE:ALK)

American Airlines Group(Nasdaq:AAL)

Delta Air Lines, Inc.(NYSE:DAL)

Frontier Airlines Holdings, Inc.(Nasdaqoth:FRTNQ.DL.P) 

Hawaiian Holdings, Inc.(Nasdaq:HA)

JetBlue Airways Corp(Nasdaq:JBLU)

Southwest Airlines Co.(NYSE:LUV)

United Continental Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:UAL) 

US Airways Group, Inc.(NYSE:LCC)

 

The Best (and Worst) Airlines

By Scott McCartney | The Wall Street Journal – Fri, 10 Jan, 2014 8:02 AM EST

 

The Wall Street Journal - Airline Scorecard (WSJ)

Travel is an ice-jammed nightmare now, but travelers have been getting used to more problems: Last year was one of the worst for airline reliability of the past five years.

Delays went up and more flights were canceled in 2013 than 2012, even though airlines again reduced the number of flights crowding airports, according to FlightStats Inc., which tracked more than 8 million trips last year. About 78% of flights on U.S. airlines arrived on-time last year, down from 80% in 2012.

The Middle Seat's annual scorecard of airline service is in. Razer launches a smartband aimed at the gaming set.

That's a significant move, reflecting hundreds of flights each day. On-time performance is a barometer for airline performance, influencing baggage handling, cancellations, complaints and other areas. Two measures of extreme customer impact worsened sharply: The number of flights delayed excessively by 45 minutes or more increased 13% and the number of flights canceled jumped 15%, according to FlightStats.

Associated Press Alaska Airlines placed first in our ranking of nine major carries for 2013.

More luggage was lost or delayed last year, too, partly because Southwest Airlines, the lone major carrier to still offer two free checked bags to customers, stumbled. Southwest mishandled more bags than United Airlines and Delta Air Lines combined, according to the most recent Transportation Department data, which covers 12 months ending last October.

The good news? Fewer passengers got involuntarily bumped from flights, according to the DOT, and fewer customers complained to the DOT about airline service. Airlines have gotten more aggressive about intercepting gripes with emailed surveys and social media.

In the Middle Seat's annual scorecard of airline service, tracking seven different key measures of airline performance, Alaska Airlines performed best in 2013 among major carriers. At the top with Alaska was Delta, which for the past two years has posted far better operational results than big competitors. Worst among big airlines? United Airlines and American Airlines, again.

On the whole, it was a mediocre year for airline reliability, the second-worst of the past five in terms of on-time arrivals (2011 was slightly worse), according to FlightStats. And it was the worst of the last five in delays over 45 minutes. That's surprising. There were fewer flights flown than any year of the past nine because of airline mergers and capacity reductions. Less-crowded skies and airports ought to yield speedier service.

After benign weather in 2012, "2013 returned to a more normal weather pattern," said Bill Lentsch, senior vice president of airport customer service at Delta Air Lines.

But several carriers ran into issues of their own making. Southwest, for example, wrote schedules based on better weather the previous two years. That shaved some minutes off flying time and shortened time between flights on the ground, allowing the airline to offer more flights and connections to customers without adding aircraft.

Then bad weather, fuller airplanes that took longer to load and unload and the tight schedule combined to create more delays. "It did slow down our operation more than I'd like," said Mike Van de Ven, Southwest's chief operating officer. Schedules are being rewritten, he said, but the changes won't take hold until the second half of 2014. Seattle-based Alaska has the benefit of few flights on the East Coast of the U.S., where weather and airport congestion can be punishing. It does, though, face the challenge of sometimes harsh conditions in Alaska.

The airline has been a pioneer in new-generation, satellite-based navigation that can let planes fly into and out of airports that otherwise would be shut down by low visibility.

Delta, 2012's top-ranked airline by our analysis, led the industry with the lowest rate of canceled flights—just 0.34% of its schedule, according to FlightStats. The industry's average of canceled flights last year, 1.65%, was almost five times higher than Delta's rate.

Delta worked last year to speed up trips by minimizing taxi times, as well as speeding up loading and unloading, Mr. Lentsch said. "It's fine-tuning. We've made some really targeted investments that give us back a few minutes in operations," he said.

Meanwhile, United and American have occupied the bottom rungs of the industry ladder for the past three years. American canceled nearly 2% of its flights last year. That ranked worst among big airlines in that category.

United had the highest rate among its peers of involuntarily bumping ticketed passengers from flights.

United and American both promised big improvement in 2013 after major problems in prior years. And both saw some, especially in on-time performance. But it wasn't enough to catch rivals, even as those rivals' reliability declined.

United, which saw on-time arrivals perk up to 79.4%, from about 76.5% in 2012, says its improvements are gaining momentum and internal customer-satisfaction surveys are showing big gains since mid-2012, when it was still struggling with its merger with Continental Airlines.

Last year, 43,000 front-line employees took new customer-service training, including techniques borrowed from the hospitality industry. It was the first time United offered recurrent customer-service training to all front-line workers. United also began collecting more specific data on its operation, such as how often jet bridges get hooked up to planes right away after arrival.

"We have had a material improvement but we know we have more to do," said Jeffrey Foland, executive vice president for marketing, technology and strategy.

Vice Chairman James Compton, who oversees United's operations, said the airline also focused more on maintenance, recalibrating the number of spare planes available and the inventory of spare parts at key airports. Improving maintenance helped reduce long delays, he said.

A spokeswoman for American said the carrier is intensely focused on its merger with US Airways, and improving reliability will be a fundamental goal of the new company. "In this next year, you'll see American step forward with a renewed focus on our customers' needs, as well as making safety and reliability part of the fabric of the new company," she said.

Mr. Van de Ven said Southwest's baggage handling, worst among the nine carriers in the scorecard, reflects not only the heavy volume that comes from not charging baggage fees but also the airline's willingness to accept bags late for check-in. To reduce mishandled bags, the airline would have to get more restrictive with customers.

Southwest is upgrading baggage sorters and equipment in the next year or two at its major airports, he said. And the airline can point to its industry-leading low rate of customer complaints filed at the DOT.

Write to Scott McCartney at middleseat@wsj.com

 

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#18) On January 12, 2014 at 12:34 AM, valuemoneygreen (82.80) wrote:

LUK Leucadia National Corp, Jefferies will be the key. Should turn out to be the backbone of the company. Management and the compounded book value growth over the last 20 years of this company has been amazing. Trading at book currently but if it trades at 1.5 times book like it has many times in the past that is a 50% return possible in the next two years PLUS their growth in book over that time frame.

IBM International Business Machines Corp, Returning money to shareholders.... 20 billion in buybacks (buying back at high yields I might add)......20% of earnings going towards dividends. Trading at a PE of only 10.4 on 2014 estimates...... the market? over 17. ROE on ROI are truely impressive.

WFC Wells Fargo read my pitch and comments on my caps page and pick any thread you want out of there. It all still holds true today. Balance sheet is best it has ever been. WFC will start returning capital to shareholders BIG TIME in 2014 and 2015. PE expanding to 14 may give you a 22% return upfront PLUS growth over the next couple years. BEST RUN BANK PERIOD and safest bet.

Dark Horse and more of a CAPS play is BRLI. Market cap of around 700 million and trading at a pe of 13.9. Crazy growth and numbers over the last ten years. Could be a takeover target by LH or DGX. I know you said 3 but I had to throw this last one in there.

Long IBM and WFC  

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#19) On January 12, 2014 at 2:11 AM, Húshuobadào (35.32) wrote:

Agent Smith,

Some other airline stocks with alot of activity such as passenger flights, air cargo, air mail delivery, and etc.

Yahoo Finance and Motley Fool Caps links with excerpts.

Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (Nasdsaqoth:CPCAY)

It operates in India, the Middle East, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Mainland China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, North America, Southeast Asia, Southwest Pacific and South Africa, and Europe.

China Eastern Airlines Corp. Ltd. (NYSE:CEA)

It has operations in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally.

China Southern Airlines Co. Ltd. (NYSE:ZHN)

China Southern Airlines Company Limited provides commercial airline services in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan regions, Southeast Asia, and internationally.

Húshuobadào

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#20) On January 12, 2014 at 4:11 AM, JakilaTheHun (99.93) wrote:

Great picks all!   Thanks to everyone that has contributed thus far.  Quite a few interesting ideas here, and a few that I've been looking into, as well. I can definitely create an article (if not 2 or 3) out of this. 

There is one company in here I likely won't use merely because I'm considering doing a more in-depth article on it.  (But I'm not going to say which one.)

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#21) On January 12, 2014 at 11:40 AM, HarryCarysGhost (99.69) wrote:

Jake how do I follow you on Seeking Alpha?

I just signed up about three weeks ago, so if anyone else writes over there just let me know, and you'll have a new follower. 

(don't worry, I have no plans of writing on SA. I don't think my particular brand of nonsense would go over well;) 

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#22) On January 12, 2014 at 1:09 PM, MKArch (99.75) wrote:

HCG,

 

As a fellow fan I can give you his SA link and a link to his own site.

 http://seekingalpha.com/author/jake-huneycutt

http://malthusiannectar.wordpress.com/

 

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#23) On January 12, 2014 at 6:57 PM, valunvesthere (< 20) wrote:

@ Húshuobadào & @ Krazy8s

While Christmas and New Years has passed now some lunar new years coming up in observance of other cultures and China Eastern Airlines Corp. Ltd. ,China Southern Airlines Co. Ltd. ,Cathay Pacific Airways Limited and etc. should be busy on - 

Friday, January 31,2014

• Chinese New Year

• Japanese New Year (celebrated by some as tradition)

• Korean New Year (Seollal)

• Mongolian New Year (Tsagaan Sar)

• Tibetan New Year (Losar)

• Vietnamese New Year (Tết)

Monday, April 13, 2014 - Thursday, April 17, 2014 (but now fixed to Gregorian calendar 13 to 16 April)

• Burmese New Year (Thingyan)

• Cambodian New Year,

• Lao New Year

• Sinhala and Tamil New Year

• Thai New Year (Songkran)

Monday, March 31, 2014 (Hindu New Year)

• Ugadi

• Gudi Padwa

sunset, Wednesday, September 24 - nightfall, Friday, September 26

• Jewish New Year (Rosh Hashanah)

Friday, October 24,2014 - Saturday,October 25,2014

• Islamic New Year (Ras as-Sanah al-Hijriyah)

references from wikipedia

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#24) On January 12, 2014 at 8:13 PM, TigerPack1 (96.22) wrote:

XRX and SPLS score the best of those mentioned so far on my blue-chip Victory Formation system.

I will be the "gold bug" and mining expert when no one else wants to be.

SA, NG, CLF  Disclosure: I own all 3 

Good odds of doubles or more in 2014.  Not investment advice.

 

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#25) On January 12, 2014 at 11:16 PM, awallejr (81.58) wrote:

Well in the end it is always about making money.   I urge all to invest in the three I mentioned.  You have valuation and potential explosive growth.

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#26) On January 13, 2014 at 11:35 AM, TigerPack1 (96.22) wrote:

I forgot MF will not allow me to pick SA on CAPS, despite it being a well traded security with a NYSE listing and LEAPs available to trade.

I am adding PAAS and SWC to CAPS this morning alongside CLF and NG.

It is quite rare for gold not to bounce after 2 straight years of large losses. Money printing is still at record levels and out of control. Wars in the Middle East will continue in 2014, and high odds of a bear market or sharp drop in U.S. stocks this year ALL argue for a rising precious metals market to resume. The fact that we are near record bearish senitment over gold and silver, vs. the near record bullishness about stocks generally, kinda makes this choice akin to a gimme putt. I will take the nearly risk-free gains in gold investments this year.

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#27) On January 13, 2014 at 2:51 PM, TigerPack1 (96.22) wrote:

Still waiting for the mainstream media to report on 8 week highs in gold miners and 5 week high in gold today.  The only stories I can find are reporting on the death of gold as investment.  If holding gold is being brain dead, count me IN. LOL I think the rest of the financial world is brain dead after a 5-year stock market bull run. Risk and reward is now reward and reward thinking. Same mentality preceded the 1987 stock market crash. Good luck with that.

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#28) On January 13, 2014 at 3:23 PM, Mega (99.96) wrote:

TigerPack,

What do you see as the safest gold miner(s) in terms of earnings/cash flow multiple, cost of production, cash position, reserves, political risk, etc? Just talking about downside, not upside.

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#29) On January 13, 2014 at 3:36 PM, Mega (99.96) wrote:

Jakila, let us know on CAPS when you publish your article. Don't want to miss it. Thanks

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#30) On January 13, 2014 at 4:55 PM, TigerPack1 (96.22) wrote:

GG is by far the safest large cap gold/silver individually. GDX is a good bet for diversification and simple sector exposure. I own those and NEM, which hasn't worked as well. They are running into problems with their Asia assets.  

SA and NG are the call option exploration names I own. Canadian assets, plenty of in ground reserves, but at high upfront build cost. NG has lots of cash for a few years of development and ABX as a partner. SA may have better leverage, but is still drilling for better finds and needs cash each year, re: dilution.

My view of the GG takeover announcement toda, is they are trying to buy stable large reserve Canada assets while the gold/silver price is low. That is a much better long-term strategy than buying them at a cycle peak in precious metals pricing.  I see a bunch of takeover acitivty in smaller miners and explorers into springtime as gold starts to rise again.

PAAS is best managed play on silver prices, great balance sheet, something like 80% of revenues is silver, not base metals like HL  I own some PAAS, no HL right now.

I own GLD, SLV, PALL also - direct exposure to metals. I am looking to buy SWC any day now.

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#31) On January 16, 2014 at 2:59 PM, TigerPack1 (96.22) wrote:

Mega & Jakila

If you are still out there listening in deep space...

Two ideas to research on gold miners in particular are the ultra-low call option premiums, and the insanely low, once-in-a-lifetime low price to cash flow mutliples.  

Usually when you are at a bottom in the metals cycle, price to cash flow ratios are HIGH, not LOW!  ABX, KGC, NEM are trading at 4 and 5x cash flow at a cyclical bottom, when they should be closer to 15x right now, given the precious metals debacle the last few years.

Combined these two indicators are screaming buy.  The low cash flow multiples should get your attention.  The ultra-low call option premiums are telling us NOBODY owns or expects metals to rebound in 2014-15.  Price volatility in precious metals miners is the same as it has been, but everyone has sold calls on their positions to lock-in income, with ZERO chance gold and silver will ever rise again?

I am guessing early 2014 is a once every 10-20 year buying opportunity in the precious metals miners. 

PS - CLF iron ore, is about 3x any normalized cycle cash flow right now.  If iron ore spikes, it is more like 1 or 2x annual cash flow, with surface mines that can last 30-40 years.

Surely worth your research time and effort.

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#32) On January 17, 2014 at 11:10 AM, TigerPack1 (96.22) wrote:

Physical gold and silver inventories have all but disappeared in late 2013.  UK and US mints have even scaled back their silver coin production, because they cannot find enough supplies.  China and India and others in Asia are aggressively stockpiling precious metals for the day the US Dollar crumbles.  China alone bought about as much gold as all the world's mine produced in 2013.  Sprott and others are screaming at people that we have reached the end of the line for easy to find gold/silver supplies for investors on the planet.  He is forecasting 2000US gold and 50 silver in 2014, and he may end up being correct!  If you cannot find gold and silver to buy at your local jeweler or precious metals dealer, a real panic of buying may be about to erupt...

Links to educate yourself on physical metals supply problem for central banks and Wall Street control over basic monetary values for free trade... http://seekingalpha.com/article/1940401-weekly-comex-gold-inventories-the-new-year-brings-new-all-time-lows

 Sprott http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmerJjUZ0Uk&feature=youtu.be&a

 If you don't know if you should be bullish or bearish on precious metals, contemplate the effect of COMEX now holding 100x the futures open interest (sold short) the amount of gold held at exchange warehouses.  The decade average is closer to 10!  The change in the ratio has occurred from a collapse in physical inventories held.  China and India own the gold now, the USA and European kings have no clothes!

 

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#33) On January 17, 2014 at 11:11 AM, TigerPack1 (96.22) wrote:

Physical gold and silver inventories have all but disappeared in late 2013.  UK and US mints have even scaled back their silver coin production, because they cannot find enough supplies.  China and India and others in Asia are aggressively stockpiling precious metals for the day the US Dollar crumbles.  China alone bought about as much gold as all the world's mine produced in 2013.  Sprott and others are screaming at people that we have reached the end of the line for easy to find gold/silver supplies for investors on the planet.  He is forecasting 2000US gold and 50 silver in 2014, and he may end up being correct!  If you cannot find gold and silver to buy at your local jeweler or precious metals dealer, a real panic of buying may be about to erupt...

Links to educate yourself on physical metals supply problem for central banks and Wall Street control over basic monetary values for free trade... http://seekingalpha.com/article/1940401-weekly-comex-gold-inventories-the-new-year-brings-new-all-time-lows

 Sprott http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmerJjUZ0Uk&feature=youtu.be&a

 If you don't know if you should be bullish or bearish on precious metals, contemplate the effect of COMEX now holding 100x the futures open interest (sold short) the amount of gold held at exchange warehouses.  The decade average is closer to 10!  The change in the ratio has occurred from a collapse in physical inventories held.  China and India own the gold now, the USA and European kings have no clothes!

 

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#34) On January 17, 2014 at 11:11 AM, TigerPack1 (96.22) wrote:

Physical gold and silver inventories have all but disappeared in late 2013.  UK and US mints have even scaled back their silver coin production, because they cannot find enough supplies.  China and India and others in Asia are aggressively stockpiling precious metals for the day the US Dollar crumbles.  China alone bought about as much gold as all the world's mine produced in 2013.  Sprott and others are screaming at people that we have reached the end of the line for easy to find gold/silver supplies for investors on the planet.  He is forecasting 2000US gold and 50 silver in 2014, and he may end up being correct!  If you cannot find gold and silver to buy at your local jeweler or precious metals dealer, a real panic of buying may be about to erupt...

Links to educate yourself on physical metals supply problem for central banks and Wall Street control over basic monetary values for free trade... http://seekingalpha.com/article/1940401-weekly-comex-gold-inventories-the-new-year-brings-new-all-time-lows

 Sprott http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmerJjUZ0Uk&feature=youtu.be&a

 If you don't know if you should be bullish or bearish on precious metals, contemplate the effect of COMEX now holding 100x the futures open interest (sold short) the amount of gold held at exchange warehouses.  The decade average is closer to 10!  The change in the ratio has occurred from a collapse in physical inventories held.  China and India own the gold now, the USA and European kings have no clothes!

 

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#35) On January 17, 2014 at 12:10 PM, TigerPack1 (96.22) wrote:

Putting it together, for example, if you use Sprott's numbers for the metals and assume industrial metals like copper rise in a similar fashion, NEM will have cash flow annually approaching $10.00 a share soon.  You are buying it today at 5x "trailing" cash flow, and more like 2.5x Sprott's spike high coming this year, with 15 or 20 years of  inground reserves left to mine.  

That valuation is absurd assuming just flat metals pricing in 2014. If prices for metals double, NEM could be worth $80-100 a share quickly in 12-24 months!

What other sectors/industries offer such upside today, at near record trailing long-term valuations for the S&P 500???? 

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#36) On January 21, 2014 at 12:51 AM, Option1307 (29.70) wrote:

Great to see you back around the Fool Jakila! This community used to be the best on the internet however has died off recently. Keep up the good work over at SA, your articels are incredibly helpful!

#12) On January 10, 2014 at 2:02 PM, MKArch (99.73) wrote:

Lennar, under, over, or fairly valued?

 

 I would also be curious on your stance on homebuilders these days. I sold out of most of them in early 2013 as I was raising cash and they had rebounded remarkably. I still hold a few smaller positions with the thought that housing has some room to run (long term).Thoughts on this at all? I'm assuming you sold out of most of you PHM holdings etc after the incredible  run you had but always interested in what others think.

 

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#37) On January 21, 2014 at 12:55 AM, Option1307 (29.70) wrote:

As for possible stocks, I honestly do not have anything on my radar at the moment. Life has been busy these past 6 months and the overal market is too hot for my liking. In sink with your recent SA article, the risk/reward balance is not in my favor at this moment for me personally. Overall in 2013 I was largely a net seller. Still have a lot of my long term positions but have lots of cash until things change and/or I'm more comfortable with the market.

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#38) On January 29, 2014 at 2:28 PM, Mary953 (76.36) wrote:

Jake,

Nice to see you back and posting.  Any chance that you might do a copy and paste of your articles on CAPS?  You seem to get comments from some of the folks that don't usually join in other conversations.  And TigerPack, you have made me want to go out and find/buy some gold coins.  How very frustrating.

I am putting together a new index-type article and would like to use this post.  Do you have any objection to that?

Mary 

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#39) On February 04, 2014 at 10:01 PM, JakilaTheHun (99.93) wrote:

Mary, no objection from me.

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#40) On February 04, 2014 at 10:02 PM, JakilaTheHun (99.93) wrote:

Quick update:  I've already picked out 3 stocks and have done the analysis.  The delay is mostly a result of figuring out the format for this. Considering doing a video version of it, as well. 

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#41) On February 11, 2014 at 6:41 PM, JakilaTheHun (99.93) wrote:

Another update:  Not going very well.  Been testing different formats and not very happy with any of them.  Still hoping to make this happen, but prospects looking increasingly poor.  :-/

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#42) On February 14, 2014 at 4:36 PM, Momentum21 (83.21) wrote:

TigerPack1 - I am with you. Typically I have not been a fan of "investing" in the shiny metal but the miners make a compelling play here even if gold and silver prices simply stabilize.  SSRI, NEM, ANV, BVN and AUMN are a few I am playing along with GDX.
Coal is also interesting via WLT, BTU, ANR, ACI. I am long those names. 
I have about $150k thrown at my theory. I was a bit early to the party (started late last summer) but SSRI gains of 50% has me in good shape as of today at least. 
It would be fun to have a big ripper day on the metals to truly put the miners on the board. : ) Good luck!  

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