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Put the truck back in gear



October 18, 2013 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: CMG , GHM , SPY

For the past few years I've been making some "back up the truck" calls in this space.  If you paid attention and followed suit, today you were rewarded with a one-bagger in CMG and a two-bagger in GHM.

I'm 97% in, about 75% in US equities, 10% in foreign equities, and the rest junk bond and convertible funds.

I am still turning over rocks, like I always do, but as occasionally occurs, I am not finding a lot of juicy bugs.  Valuations are starting to look appropriate-to-high.  If you've been following this blog, you know I think that GHM at a price of 39 is overpriced for future growth; CMG at a P/E of 44 is still a great long-term (20 years) growth story, but I think the next few years - maybe 5 years - of comp and same store growth may be priced in!

Peter Lynch always used to advise that you not take advice from your cabby or shoeshine boy - "Do you think he'll tell you when to sell?" was his complaint.

Well, I don't tell people what to do, but if you bought those stocks because I told you they were going to go up, and you want to know when I think you ought to sell them:


I sold half my GHM - a stop-limit kicked in; I let the CMG be; and I am keeping a pretty close eye on things.  If the S+P starts nearing 1920 I am going to start getting out of things just with a market-timer's eye to getting back into them at more reasonable values.

7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 18, 2013 at 3:23 PM, ikkyu2 (98.17) wrote:

I have actually had some CMG kicking around that I bought when I made the caps pick, at 69; I am counting today as a "spiffy-pop".  Never thought I'd see one of those!

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#2) On October 18, 2013 at 4:26 PM, ikkyu2 (98.17) wrote:

Back up the truck: CMG 10/19/2012

Back up the truck: GHM August 2010 - three years, two bags, one awesome Fool blogger!

Also, just in terms of a miscellaneous prediction: on Aug 28, 2011, I told an optimistic commentor to a post about NLY that he would not be singing the same tune about NLY 2 years from the date of the post. At that time the price of NLY was $17.60 or close to it, and the most recent quarterly dividend was $0.65.

Today the price of NLY is 11.87 and the most recent quarterly dividend has been $0.35.  I am considering that prediction closed as 'correct'.

I'm pretty pleased about my predictions.  I have gotten wrong nearly everything I've suggested about the Fed and its actions; but if there's been a ticker symbol involved - even SPY - I think I'm batting pretty close to 1.000.

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#3) On October 18, 2013 at 8:11 PM, VExplorer (29.05) wrote:

Hi, you are right: some people are following you (or at least reading to find ideas). :) Thank you.

I've interested in you current opinion about another your pick: GLW.

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#4) On October 19, 2013 at 10:43 AM, GirlsUnder30 (30.41) wrote:

Nice call on those two! I wasn't a member then so couldn't take advantage of your advice. I like the extraction sector. The economic policy continues to point to devaluation and at some point, commodities will come back into favor in a big way. What do you think of this?  

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#5) On October 19, 2013 at 2:23 PM, amassafortune (29.20) wrote:

AMZN had a spiffy-pop Friday and I sold at just under $331. My mental target was $313, so when I saw it flying its freak flag, I locked in gains.

I'll own it again on a pull-back.

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#6) On October 26, 2013 at 7:37 AM, ikkyu2 (98.17) wrote:


I got out of GLW at 15 and change.  The stock didn't behave right; it wasn't behaving like a stock with supposedly a lot of insider buying, buybacks, and prospects for great earnings growth was supposed to behave.  Whenever I start feeling like a stock is 'broken' I ditch it. 

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#7) On October 26, 2013 at 7:39 AM, ikkyu2 (98.17) wrote:

GU30:  I think I don't like a stock that doesn't trade on the major exchanges because I don't know what kind of jiggery-pokery is going on with the financials.  A lot of times other exchanges have much less stringent reporting rules, permitting late reports, non-GAAP figures, or no reporting at all.

As far as commodities, I believe they will generally keep pace with inflation - which is more than I can say for any other asset in these nutty times. 

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