Puzzle for CAPS Experts
I began participating in CAPS yesterday by entering 194 picks (98 outperform, 96 underperform) before the market open. All picks were the result of a stock screen. I closed the day with a member rating of 89.96 -- it peaked above 95 during the day.
I'm not foolish enough to believe that this performance is simply a product of my genius (which is, admittedly, considerable ;-)) Given that I have no "accumulated" score (i.e. no closed picks), my best hypothesis to explain such a high rating is that the number one predictor of member ranking is the number of open picks.
A friend of mine suggested that the percentage of 'undeperform' picks may also be highly predictive.
Of course, I could simply have been lucky on my first day.
Alex Dumortier, CFA (XMFMarathonMan)