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Quadruple dip

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May 28, 2011 – Comments (7)

I follow Steve Keen's debt watch and he has posted a couple videos where he discusses debt and what caught my attention when when he said "it" will be described as a double dip but will really be a quadruple dip.

I have been big on looking at Japan in terms of understanding the economy and he refers to Japan and what Japan was advised to do and what they did and essentially how the US is following the same path.

He posted this a few days ago and if you haven't run across them, I think they are worth the time to take a look.

7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 28, 2011 at 11:19 AM, ChrisGraley (29.69) wrote:

Very good stuff dwot!

 I don't think that people understand how close to following Japan we actually are. 

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#2) On May 28, 2011 at 1:56 PM, tdonb (< 20) wrote:

My question is where to put money? Euro? Canada? Seems like all economies are having the same sorts of problems. If there is a final deleveraging, it doesn't seem like there will be any safe place.

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#3) On May 29, 2011 at 2:49 AM, dwot (40.93) wrote:

tdonb, I think pay debts first.  What good does it do to lose money somewhere and then still have a debt obligation? 

I think it is easier to figure out how to protect smaller amounts of money, spreading it between more then one bank and checking the strength of the bank.

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#4) On May 31, 2011 at 3:45 PM, chk999 (99.97) wrote:

The US and Japan are remarkably different demographically and demographics is destiny. Their population is shrinking, ours is growing. Japan has about 128 million now and will be down to 95 million by 2050.The US is about 308 million now and 419 million in 2050. 

This makes it come out different. (Not claiming good, just different.) 

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#5) On June 01, 2011 at 10:16 AM, dwot (40.93) wrote:

 chk999

 I do not have the same confidence in your crystal ball as you have.  Population projections are based on what has been, not what will be.  I'd say the number one thing that screwed me in life was having belief in the so called experts in their projections that I was making decisions and developing beliefs upon as they could not have been more wrong and most making projections seem to lack any ablitity to see how trends might change and why they might change.

There is a gross declining lifestyle for young people and that results in people having less children and the evidence is already suggesting that the birth rate is declining.  And if you look at what happened in Canada when there was a huge decline in opportunity and lifestyle, we ended up with an extremely low birthrate.  All of our population growth has come from immigration.

I find those population grow projections highly questionable. 

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#6) On June 01, 2011 at 11:55 AM, chk999 (99.97) wrote:

Are the actual numbers correct? Of course not. But the general point that the Japanese population is declining and the US is growing is very robust.

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#7) On June 01, 2011 at 12:08 PM, mtf00l (48.04) wrote:

Advantage dwot

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