Question for the MotleyAnimal.
On sept 8th you penned a blog titiled "Wake up Obama. We Got Your Job Plan Right Here!" which seemed to extoll the virtues of building a pipeline to move oil extracted from the Canadian Tar Sands, the Keystone Xl pipeline, down to the Gulf of Mexico to be refined into gasoline to move my car in order to create a portion of 1.4million jobs.
And of course, I have thought about it and now I have some questions, but only a few for you. First the background behind my thoughts. I am sure you are familiar with the concept of Energy Returned On Energy Invested. EROEI for short. In oils early days the EROEI of oil was over 100:1, meaning that for every unit of energy invested you got over 100 units back. As oil becomed harder to get, the EROEI goes down. Today the EROEI on conventional oil is down 10:1 so that it takes 10 units of energy in order to get 9 units of energy into my car. 10 - 1 = 9, or about 11 to get 10 units into my car, 11-1 = 10.
Tar sands oil has an EROEI of 1.5:1 which means it takes 1.5 units of energy to get .5 units into my car. 1.5 -1 =.5. To get the 10 units my car still needs, I need 30 units of energy. (.5 x 20) = 10 units so (1.5x 20) = 30 units minus (1 x 20) = 20 units and then of course, 30 units minus 20 units leaves the 10 units needed for my car each week.
So here's the questions.
If gasoline costs $40.00/10units today, when one unit is being lost to production, how much do you expect 10 units of gasoline to cost when twenty units are being lost to production?
97% of climate scientists tell us that current rates of atmospheric CO2 disposal is enough to warm our planet well beyond anything we would otherwise be experiencing in the coming centurys and causing extreme weather events to happen wih greater frequency and intensity. On Long Island, where I live, many property insurers are refusing to insure houses at lower elevations and those that will are raising prices dramatically. Inlight of the extrme weather events we have experienced so far this year, Texas fires, crop losses, Mississippi flooding, New England flooding, Tornadoes etc can you estimate for me the cost increase of a homeowners policy if we triple the rate at which we dispose of CO2 into the atmosphere?
From USA Today; http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/insurance/2010-08-26-katrina26_CV_N.htm
From 2005 through 2007, the latest figures available, the average premium for homeowners insurance in the USA increased 7.6%, according to a survey by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners. But the average doesn't reflect what many homeowners have experienced. Some inland states saw much more modest increases, while homeowners in coastal areas experienced double-digit rate increases.
In Florida, for example, average premiums jumped 41% from 2005 through 2007, according to the NAIC survey. Average rates in Louisiana rose 22%. Rhode Island homeowners saw their rates go up by nearly 12%, while average premiums for New York homeowners rose 11%.
"After the insurance industry looked at the devastation caused by Katrina, it said the underwriting price (for homeowners insurance) should be higher than it is," says Bill Sinn, insurance industry director for Pitney Bowes Business Insight.
This all seems like it will pretty expensive to me. President Obama does not have the authority to make the Keystone XL Pipeline happen, but he does have the authority to stop it. I think he shoud stop it.