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May 06, 2009 – Comments (5)

I was discussing how the markets keep moving up in the face of all of the data that's still fairly bad via e-mail with my father today and he had one of the most interesting quotes on the subject that I've heard in a while.  I'm not sure if he made it up, it's entirely possible that he didn't (I'm going to pretend that he did), but it's a good one:

It is possible it is better to be 200 yards from hell and moving away than 10 miles away and moving toward it.

Here's the rest of what he had to say on the subject for those who are interested.  As some background, he was the chief commodities purchaser for a huge blue chip company for a million of years.  Prior to that he worked at the Department of Agriculture.  He is now retired and runs an advisory service for companies that are interested in hedging their commodity exposure and trades a great deal for his personal accounts:

The stock market is approaching a critical level near 920-925 on the S&P. There are short sellers in this market which are close to being blown out and there is money on the sidelines for months and now would like to get in. We are approaching a key level. If the S&P continues to move higher it could rocket to 1,000 and the Dow to 9,000. My thoughts for what it is worth.

For the life of me I can't understand why the market keeps going higher, but I certainly am not going to fight it.  I haven't been short anything in real life since last summer and I am short very few things in CAPS right now.  

My score here has underperformed by quite a bit lately because much like in real life I have positioned my portfolio very conservatively, focusing on yield, value and sectors that are not exposed to the consumer.  I think that being conservative and getting paid to wait for growth that will likely take longer than many expect to materialize is the right call at the moment...but time will tell.

Anyhow, I thought that some of my friends here would enjoy this quote.  Have a good one.

Deej

5 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 06, 2009 at 3:30 PM, dudemonkey (39.48) wrote:

That IS a really good way of looking at it.  Certainly it's an interesting viewpoint, and one that shows a lot of experience.

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#2) On May 06, 2009 at 4:31 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I am slightly amused by all the "why did x not result in y" posts here lately.

A somewhat more "macro" view can really be helpful.

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#3) On May 06, 2009 at 4:51 PM, TMFDeej (99.43) wrote:

I'm curious by what you mean by the more macro view, port?  I don't think that it gets more macro than the above quote.

Deej

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#4) On May 06, 2009 at 5:08 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

That is what I meant. (actually I wanted to write "... macro view that your father displays ...", but did not like it and thought it might be obvious what I meant. great quote/father!)

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#5) On May 07, 2009 at 7:04 AM, drummnutt (< 20) wrote:

Good post! We are approaching that critical level where a (minor) correction is getting more likely, but the Macro picture looks good enough that I will stay long through this correction.

Unless things get dramatically worse, we have seen the bottom of this bear. And I am happy to be held to that statement. Pls note though that I am not saying that we are going to run a huge bull run anytime soon, but that the worst is behind us, and we are now recovering, (there is skepticism).:

Bull markets are born on pessimism,
GROW on SKEPTICISM,
mature on optimism,
and die on euphoria 

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