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alstry (34.93)

"Real Unemployment"........

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April 08, 2009 – Comments (6)

As many of you know...I have distinguished U3 and U6 unemployment and stressed that U6 is more reflective of actual unemployment conditions. U3 is the more commonly quoted number in the press where as U6 also accounts for those who are working part time but want to work full time and and also includes frustrated searchers who have dropped out of the workforce because their uninsurance benefits have run out and can't find a replacement job.

Last Friday morning I was shocked when CNBS called U6 the "real unemployment" rate.  I questioned whether Steve Liesman discovered Alstrynomics.....especially when he indicated the REAL UNEMPLOYMENT rate was 16%.

16% on a national basis.....currently there are many states where the REAL UNEMPLOYMENT rate is over 20%.....OVER 20%!!!!!!!!!

A few weeks ago...I did a blog projecting that REAL UNEMPLOYMENT would reach 50%.  Many thought I was crazy....here is what our esteemed blogger TMFTomG stated:

That said, we are not in danger of evaporation. No doubt in my mind, though, that unemployment is headed higher. But, 50%? Well, if you say that quickly and mumblingly, it sounds like 15%...and I do think that's possible. Very difficult times.

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=168229&t=01002130057764754273

Well Tom...it only took a few weeks for the REAL UNEMPLOYMENT to exceed the number you thought was possible.

Tonight a fellow blogger tells us that the University of California is laying off and furloughing workers.

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=177722&t=01001332920705836077

NEVER IN THE PAST HUNDRED YEARS HAVE WE SEEN SO MANY WORKERS FORCED TO TAKE SUCH MASSIVE PAY CUTS!!!!!  AND CONDITIONS ARE DETIORATING!!!!!!!

Now even University workers, Hospital workers, Police officers, Firefighters, and nurses are being forced to make wage concessions.  This is after airline pilots, auto workers, and real estate agents have seen their incomes drop by 40%, 50% and more.

The problem is not simply the incredible number of job losses and wage cuts....it is the fact we are experiencing revenue contraction when so many have such massive DEBT that even a relatively small drop in income can cause a terminal FU infection. 

And due to the DEBT and spreading of the disease...once someone develops Toxic Borrower Syndrome....it doesn't take long for it to morph into the symptomatic FU virus.

Right now we are just at the tip of the iceberg as far as people contracting the FU virus....only 16% of the population is symptomatic....but 70-90% have Toxic Borrower Syndrome which makes them susceptible to becoming symptomatic. 

Based on my survey of bankers, businessmen, and bosses......you can bet your bottom dollar that a lot more are going to become infected in the next few months.  A LOT MORE!!!!!

At this point.....unless we restructure debt soon.....my projection for a REAL UNEMPLOYMENT rate exceeding 50% stands.  We are over 20% in a number of states already.  If you think conditions are difficult right now.....just wait as the distress moves up the population chain.

I know....CNBS and even bigger BSer CRAMMER says we are at a bottom.....they have said that since 13,000....12,000....11,000.....10,000......9,000,.....8,000.......

From Alstry's perspective....as few seem to want to restructure debt.... it seems like our leaders just put our plane on full throttle as we head straight for the ground.........ladies and gentlemen......please assume crash position......

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 08, 2009 at 7:02 PM, alstry (34.93) wrote:

As distress grows....so does stress.......prepare.....DON"T FEAR!!!!!

Fear is a tool of control.....America is about Liberty

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#2) On April 08, 2009 at 7:21 PM, SharpSEO (70.90) wrote:

Won't the govt print dollars massively, effecitvely reducing debt-loads, to prevent a situation like this? Seems like the only question is whether it'll be HUGE or HYPER inflation, eventually. The government is liable for pensions, fdic, spic, cmbs, mbs, FHA, FRE, FNM, etc etc.

It's just too much. And no politician will get away with allowing unemployment at those levels. They have to print, no choice it seems. I could be totally wrong, who knows.

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#3) On April 08, 2009 at 7:27 PM, SharpSEO (70.90) wrote:

Oh, I forgot to mention the two biggest problems: unfunded medicare and social security liabilities. Those added up to around $52 trillion last I read. It's probably significantly more by now.

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#4) On April 08, 2009 at 7:31 PM, Kenaida22 (< 20) wrote:

Thanks for the clip, sounds like TSA guys are not properly trained.

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#5) On April 08, 2009 at 9:22 PM, alstry (34.93) wrote:

As more and more can't afford the pay for health insurance....fewer and fewer will have to shoulder a larger and larger burden.   Right now, many self employed families are being forced to pay NORTH of $15K per year for health insurance.  As more and more can't afford to pay premiums....expect annual health insurance rates to continue to skyrocket.

The same principle applies to State and Local taxes.  As more and more can't or fail to pay taxes....fewer and fewer will be forced to shoulder a larger and larger burden.  Here is a snipit from tonight's WSJ:

A free fall in tax revenue is driving more state lawmakers to turn to broad-based tax increases in a bid to close widening budget gaps.

At least 10 states are considering some kind of major increase in sales or income taxes: Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, Oregon, Washington and Wisconsin. California and New York lawmakers already have agreed on multibillion-dollar tax increases that went into effect earlier this year.

If you are the last person in your area that can afford to pay taxes....you should NOT be surprised if your health insurance premium exceeds $100K per year and your tax rate exceeds 100% of your income......

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#6) On April 13, 2009 at 12:10 PM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

Oh geeze Alstry that is what all the FEMA camps are for. They are all over the country and because this was all planed they soon will be used.

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