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"Suprise Fall in US Retail Sales"...CAPS players called this back in jan/feb



April 14, 2009 – Comments (1)

US retail sales were down 1.1% from feb. and 9.4% from last march:

"We were expecting improvement and we got a huge decline. The report was weak across the board," said Jacob Oubina at

"This throws some cold water on the idea that we're carving out a bottom," he added.


Too bad Jacob didn't read this blog post way back in feb.

 The increases in january and feb.were not due to signs of a bottoming process but rather to accounting rules which require that purchases with gift cards be recognized when they are redeemed rather than purchased.

 Jan/Feb showed increases because spending in december did not get counted in the december numbers.  So december numbers should have looked better and jan./feb. should have looked worse than they did. 

Now that it is march and the gift card spending is out of the system we are once again seeing the true trend in retail spending which is DOWN not UP.

1 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 14, 2009 at 1:37 PM, lenri (64.49) wrote:

Consumers saving and not spending. It gives me renewed faith in our ultimate recovery.

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