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Random thoughts of the morning: "0-10" & the jobs report



December 05, 2008 – Comments (2)


I had a random thought this morning that I needed to share with everyone. 

I have heard a number of well-educated people refer to 2010 in interviews as "0-10" lately.  While technically there is a zero in front of the ten, this doesn't seem right to me.  It's definitely different than calling something "0-8" or "0-9."  I have decided that calling 2010 "0-10" bothers me. I will not do it and I will chastise anyone who does :).

Anyhow back to business.  A huge jobs number is scheduled to be released at 8:30 AM EST this morning: U.S. Job Losses Probably Reached 26-Year High as Economy Sank. The consensus estimate of analysts is for a loss of 333,000 jobs in November.  If this occurs, it would be the largest drop since the recession in July 1982.  Similarly, analysts' believe that the unemployment rate may have risen to 6.8%, its highest level since 1993.

I personally think that the job losses and unemployment are already significantly higher than that, but one never knows what sort of BS numbers the Bureau of Labor Statistics will put out.  The most pessimistic estimate that I have heard was from Michael Darda of MKM partners (who actually is usually pretty good).  Based on recent reports on unemployment claims and service-sector activity he is forecasting a job loss of over half a million...that's right 500,000.  I think that the BLS would finesse that number down so the odds of something like that being published are low, but if the jobs report does look like that, Mr. Market will likely freak out.

I have to get ready now so that I'm able to catch the report in my car on the way to work. 


2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 05, 2008 at 10:37 AM, ByrneShill (82.63) wrote:

I hate to burst your bubble but the only count on which you're right is the number. From

November: Most jobs lost in 34 years The economy lost 533,000 jobs in November, according to a government report

Dow and S&P are roughly -2%

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#2) On December 05, 2008 at 11:00 AM, FoolishChemist (92.64) wrote:

Let's not forget the major revisions in October and September

"The change in total nonfarm employment for September was revised from -284,000 to -403,000, and the change for October was revised from -240,000 to -320,000."

That's another 199,000 jobs they finally counted! So don't be suprised if the Nov numbers are actually bigger.


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