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midasreturns (< 20)

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Random Walk but Un-Random Talk!

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March 07, 2013 – Comments (0)

Before we get to the exciting part of portfolio holdings as of today, let's talk about couple of not so mundane stuff.

People are bothered, puzzled, surprised and whatnot (is it even a real word?) about the market. Every now and then I am being asked - Why is the market going up? In fact the more ubiquitous question is - Why did the famous (or shall I say the infamous) sequestration  and the forth coming budget talks not stall the markets?

My dear fellow investors, I know there has been lot of noise about the unemployment and the sluggish growth  but everyone is forgetting that the housing industry, the pillar that has historically pulled US out of recession, has turned the corner. It has finally started contributing to the economy. There are cities in US like San Francisco, Phoenix and believe it or not - Austin - where the houses are selling faster than the pancakes at IHOP and they are getting pricier (FYI - I meant houses).

Moreover the stock market is a leading indicator of economy's health in future (4 to 6 months down the line). I guess currently Mr. Market is discounting the shenanigans and gobbledygook of Mr. Washington.

Anyways, I enjoyed the ride and hopefully you did too. Apart from the employment data, there is no significant data coming up in next few weeks that will derail this rally.

Note of caution - Currently the PE(ttm) of $SPX stands at 17.5. Last year it was 15.5 and historical mean value has been 15.5. This doesnt really bar $SPX from reaching 20 but around this number, we have seen strong pullbacks in the past.

Switching topic.

Over the weekend I read that Mr. Buffett was unhappy with the Berkshire's returns. Now talk about 'Subpar' performance. YTD out of outstanding 27000 mutual funds only 1000 mutual funds have been able the beat the Dow Jones.

But this was not the most interesting thing that I read in the Journal. What really caught my eyes was an article by Jason Zweig - Have Investors Finally Cracked the Stock Picking Code?

Don't the numbers speak for itself - 979/26500. Do you really think that using GROSS MARGIN to evaluate a company in addition to the Net Income will make every trader a crystal ball reader like the pretty lady below? I will leave it up to you, the Intelligent Investors, to decide.

I will talk about my portfolio and it's YTD performance tomorrow. Till then happy trading! Adios. And don't forget to get my stock tweets @sumeetvats. Visit my blog to know more about my investments.

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