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shamapant (80.52)

Rank...don't judge a book by its cover

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December 03, 2011 – Comments (6)


Is it weird how my CAPS rank was below 10 around a month ago and its *almost* at my all star goal already? It is a bit strange, and it makes me realize that the difference between my rank of 71 and another player's rank of 30,40, or 50 doesn't mean much at all. Higher ranking is great in CAPS, but my quick rise tells me that there are many jewels throughout CAPS whose posts aren't getting respect due to their low scores. It gets a little annoying.  

On the otherhand, why am I really at this rank right now? I made a few right calls, I figured out the CAPS game, and the market turned upwards. 

My correct calls are like the 'pure' CAPS goal: smart investor makes the right accurate call and gets his points for it. Fantastic. 

The CAPS game: In order to win this game in the big leagues you need leverage...3x ETFs. While I haven't mastered the use of these ETFs yet, I don't need too because there are other aspects of the game that help you win that get a lot less respect. If you look at my CAPS profile, there are lots and lots and lots of picks closed out at +1-15 points...why? I need accuracy...what if the market crashes tomorrow and I lose those points? I need to lock in what I have. Is this not directly applicable to real life investing? You want to lock in your gains and keep your losses---fight your instincts! keep the play alive for a while and a call thats +15 might turn into +80. It has yet to happen to me but I feel like its a reason why I can really respect this system, even when it has been so heavily criticized by many of its users. 

And of course the market turned upwards. Always a good sign for a bull like me. 

This little rant is just meant to say, my score right now is fragile--tomorrow I might be under rank 20 again when the market crashes and my 3x ETFs die, but don't count me out, and don't count out blog posts by others under rank20 who have something to say either. Reading blogs by rank 99s is generally a great investment of time, but don't ignore every blog by a user under rank 20 either.

Oh and thanks for your support :) never been ranked 70 before! accomplishment! 

Crud, one last thing: How much did the drop in unemployment actually change your views on the state of the economy? I hear tell of people saying this would 'set the tone for market performance in December'....I still can't fathom why a jobs report would effect the stock market performance within a single month so directly but it seems to be the opinion of a few financial writers somewhere..thoughts?  

 Shamapant 

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 03, 2011 at 12:32 AM, portefeuille (99.78) wrote:

at +1-15 points

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Ended picks with scores between 0 and 5 do not affect your accuracy rating

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(from here)

 

3x ETFs

don't do it. if you have some pride, hehe ...

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#2) On December 03, 2011 at 12:37 AM, portefeuille (99.78) wrote:

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vanamonde says:
I have self-regulated away from all the ETFs and unshortable .ob/pk stocks. Let’s see how long before the unfortunate onslaught of these in CAPS will take me from top 100.

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(from here)

 

 

 

the "caps" game is improved by addition of vanamonde-like players, not by addition of suckers ...

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#3) On December 03, 2011 at 12:43 AM, shamapant (80.52) wrote:

And you have my respect for amassing those points without leverage. Truthfully though, I am trying to reduce my CAPS exposure to the ETFs, and once the last of my red ETF picks goes green I might be canceling out some of them. A little bit too speculative for me...but you have to admit that these ETFs are really the key for many and most to rankings above 90

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#4) On December 03, 2011 at 4:31 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

shamapant,

  When the system was set up there were no ETF's and volitility plays and few scam stocks that fit the intitial threshholds.  The markets were farily stable and the thought was the scoring would be in a narrow range, so the accuracy factor would add a variable to help bring the better players to the top.  The problem now is that you can't back something out easily in "mid-game" and CAPS will always be in mid-game.

I'd like to see "all time" metrics AND a rolling time period, say one year metric so there is something for all to shoot for, not just those who timed a market, or have longevity.

The ETF plays are amplified by the market volitility. Many good players, however, have gone too far one way with ETF's and got caught in a market turn.

The main reason your score changed so much is because the playing field is still "tight" in the middle.  The majority of accounts are DEAD, unmanaged. The swing from whirlybird 20 to 80 is a very narrow range of points/accuracy.

The points of CAPS, at least for me, is how can I use it to learn.  I've started with learning sectors, working fundamentals, playing what-ifs, adding in technicals, studying ETF's, and now focusing on volitility and what that means.  I don't buy every ETF I play, but I use them to practice calling market movements and get a subset in Real Life.

For me, it's more about what I can learn and what the cause and effect are. I had the whirlybird at least three times.  If I keep getting silly on LinkedIN, Angie, etc, learning how an IPO oscillates as shorts get on, options open up, quiet periods end, and insiders hold times expire I might end up with the whirlybird again!!!

I do agree that a new player can't get to the top without using enhanced drugs, but I set myself much lower goals that are attainable and look for other areas of "study".  If you tried ETF's and decided they weren't for you then at least you were motivated to try and you evaluated what you learned.

I don't ignore anyones blogs!  I do find, that many of the higher rated players have decent blogs. I think that's a side benefit of learning the game, hanging in, watching what works and what doesn't, and finding ways to translate that back into a blog that the average person can get something out of. I appreciate anyone trying to share in blogs who is sincere about why they are blogging and what they think they have to offer.

That would exclude the "advertising" blog and spammer blogs, which are often found by looking at a player's score and seeing <20.  Many of those bloggers don't "play".  So if I filter out a low score blogger, it's because they aren't playing and I don't know why they are here.  Playing is learning.  Blogging is sharing what you've learned or seeking more knowledge.

Good luck!   <20 or 100.00 you're on my good blogger list at this point!!!

TSIF

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#5) On December 03, 2011 at 5:42 PM, shamapant (80.52) wrote:

TSIF

-thanks for the compliments, and you're right about the 3x etf's, if i had really shorted those ETF's, I would have had a margin call so I have a lot to learn about all of these areas as well. I have noticed the advertising, and it does bug me a little bit. Especially because the advertisers never take the time to respond to questions...not that I would expect more but it can get annoying. I'm excited about the new blog system though, It will force me to organize my thoughts a bit more and make it all a little more understandable.

 Shamapant 

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#6) On December 08, 2011 at 11:25 AM, pesobill (< 20) wrote:

comment on AMWI  good, bad

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