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January 25, 2011 – Comments (19)

My portfolio is down about 10% this month, mostly due to my PM holdings.  Gold and silver tends to be seasonally bad around this time of year so I am not sure why I didn't scale out of my positions, but whatever.  I dont care about being down short term, but a few things worry me long term

1) The stock market and more importantly corporate earnings are rising- people are rightfully less fearful so there is less reason for silver and gold vs equities

2) Obama wants to cut spending- less gov spending = less money printing = bad for PM's

3) COMEX keeps tightening margin requirements, which probably = less leveraged longs, but I could be wrong on this.

Are these 3 factors going to destroy the silver and gold momentum?  

 

19 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 25, 2011 at 3:54 PM, ChrisGraley (29.87) wrote:

Just my opinions but,

1) We haven't even begun to see the true inflationary response to all of this spending. When economic growth does actually occur and not accounting tricks, expect PMs to take off like rockets.

2) If Obama wants to cut spending the same way that he wanted us to save money on healthcare, I would double up on PM's if I were you.

3) Margin requirements at Comex hurt the shorts more than the longs.

4) JP Morgan has a lot of silver to unwind.

5) China is long pretty much all PM's and buying more by the minute.

6) Helicopter Ben solves every problem by printing more money and more problems are on the way.

again, just my 2 cents.

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#2) On January 25, 2011 at 3:58 PM, Valyooo (99.53) wrote:

Chris, thanks for commenting on all of my blogs...even though I am pretty set on my long silver thesis, I am still very uneducated in it compared to you, 100ozround, sinchi and co.  I understand most of your points but 1) arent there always problems in the world? its not like it is unique to have crisis at all times 2) isnt china tightening?

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#3) On January 25, 2011 at 4:04 PM, TheFoolishEdge (23.00) wrote:

How is the contest at your school going?

 

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#4) On January 25, 2011 at 4:11 PM, ChrisGraley (29.87) wrote:

1) Yes, and Ben will throw money at every one of them.

2) China's tightening will have nothing to do with our own inflation as long as they keep the yuan pegged to the dollar. In fact it's a sign that they are worried about inflation in the US. The fact that they are trying to exchange dollars for PM's will definitely affect our own inflation though.

No problem, the headlines in your blogs just seem to have topics that I'm interested in as well lately.

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#5) On January 25, 2011 at 4:15 PM, Valyooo (99.53) wrote:

Wont the tightening stop them from buying as much though?

And the contest did not start plus they are requiring me to have team mates but I dont know anybody

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#6) On January 25, 2011 at 5:43 PM, TheFoolishEdge (23.00) wrote:

Teammates in a finance trading contest?  That doesn't sound like fun at all.

 

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#7) On January 25, 2011 at 6:10 PM, Pennyperson (< 20) wrote:

Chris, thanks for commenting on all of my blogs

Now that's funny stuff...you go Valyooo

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#8) On January 25, 2011 at 6:31 PM, Valyooo (99.53) wrote:

I see you decided to stay pennyperson, good decision!

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#9) On January 25, 2011 at 6:53 PM, Pennyperson (< 20) wrote:

Yea, MSN [was] my home page. I found MF via MSN and was not pleased when they gave up the Fools. Their loss as if "they care".

I'm here to stay..I don't play the game, but MF is a great place and people like you makes it that way.

Sorry for the O.T.

Good luck with your future..I read what you had to say in another blog. You da man. Live the dream because life is short !!

PP

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#10) On January 25, 2011 at 7:18 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.72) wrote:

Hey Vallyooo, Even though I always hate to see my stocks go down (though I'm still up quite a bit: ) I'm taking the approach of adding, I did'nt get the full position on SLW that I wanted. So I see it as a buying opportunity.

My target for Silver remains at $50 pr/once

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#11) On January 25, 2011 at 9:20 PM, ChrisGraley (29.87) wrote:

They are tightening their lending practices to slow their own growth, but China is still growing. They are also buying less of our debt and exchanging our dollars for commodities.

I think that we go well over $50 an ounce for Silver as well and I doubt that we will ever go below $25 an ounce again.

As far as commenting on your blogs, you seem to talk about subjects that I like and you are very cordial.

I wish you luck in the contest and you might want to try and short cocoa if you think the Ivory Coast is bluffing.

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#12) On January 25, 2011 at 10:57 PM, Valyooo (99.53) wrote:

Hey Chris, that is a great idea about cocoa...although I don't think they are letting me join due to my lack of partners...so lame.

Thanks all for the encouraging words...it does actually boost my confidence in my investing path.

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#13) On January 26, 2011 at 7:54 AM, lemoneater (79.19) wrote:

That is too bad, Valyooo. It's not like investing has to be a team sport. Most of us go solo in real life with encouragement from others who go solo. Caps is a community of individual investors with different needs knowledge and goals.

With what my husband had to pay recently for an empty cardboard box $8 from U-Haul, I'm beginning to think cardboard is an important commodity all its own. I guess it would fall under the paper/lumber industry.

Have a great day, Valyooo, a lot of us wish you well! 

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#14) On January 26, 2011 at 8:47 AM, Valyooo (99.53) wrote:

And I appreciate that very much!

How do corporate earnings improvements play in with silver prices?

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#15) On January 26, 2011 at 9:26 AM, Jbay76 (< 20) wrote:

Valyooo,

I think another thign to bear in mind is that currently the distributors of PMs (Kitco for example) can't keep up with the demand for silver and gold.  That in of itself is worth getting more into the PM's either through hard PM purchases or through the PM miners themselves.  I'm currrently focusing on the miners.

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#16) On January 26, 2011 at 10:28 AM, Valyooo (99.53) wrote:

Jbay,

That is my primary reason for investing in silver

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#17) On January 26, 2011 at 11:35 AM, cbwang888 (25.97) wrote:

Gold and silver tracks crude oil well. So if you believe crude oil to go above $100/barrel in 2011, then gold will go above $1500 and silver will break new high as well.

I'll load up silver miner call options on St. Valentine Day !!!

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#18) On January 26, 2011 at 3:09 PM, Valyooo (99.53) wrote:

more bond buying...lets go!

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#19) On January 26, 2011 at 11:49 PM, JackSparra (35.27) wrote:

Fed basically said today they could not care less about commodity prices and that growth is more important. After the comments gold spiked 10+ dollars.

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