Recession Over? Ask the Unemployed!
I'm having a hard time with the Fed's talking head saying the recession is over and the economy is in recovery. What charts are they using?
We are a consumer society and our real measure of the economy is what the consumer buys; whether it's for cash or on credit. There seems to be a short supply of both.
Unemployment is rising and about to cross 10%. If 10 % of our consumers have no job and the other 90% isn't sure how long they'll have one either who will be spending money?
Credit card balances are rising at the same time lenders are cutting back credit limits, there will be a crunch soon.
I'm seeing too many for rent signs in store windows that used to be occupied and too many for sale signs on residences with unmowed lawns.
My best indicator for the recession being reversed will be after the unemployment rate peaks above 10% and it comes back down below 10%. When people are back to work and unemployment is down to 5% then I'll wave "The Recession is Over!" banner on my blog Financial Tides; not before.
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