Recession? U ain’t seen nothun’ yet
OK, something here is wrong. I know: 8% unemployment, people having trouble making mortgage payments, demand is up and donations are down at charities, restaurants cutting back hours and offering lower prices, downturn in corporate earnings and dividends, states and cities having trouble balancing bloated spending, car dealers closing, etc. Y’know, it sure seems like an ordinary recession, like the many we have had once or twice per decade recently. Is this right?
Credit markets are still mostly frozen, and credit is the life blood of business and economic activity. Based on what most business and economic writers are expounding, I am expecting a deep, painful, depression with major economic dislocations. I am just not seeing it; you know: entire towns being abandoned, whole industries and retail segments evaporating into thin air, whole categories of financial institutions disappearing (think S&L crisis from a couple of decades ago), massive (e.g. millions) numbers of homeless, etc.
Either the US has dodged the bullet (fat chance, but my portfolio sure hopes so), or business, banks, and consumers are just running on fumes, and still due for a super-hard landing very soon.