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Red thumbing VXX for christmas, and my rational



December 16, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: JXI , ITB , DELL.DL

I'll tell you. I don't think there IS going to be a correction before Christmas. The world just doesn't want it. Yet, till then the volume will continue to chill, as the market bounces in range trending slightly up.
   I think spring might just slowly unwind though. The dollar is weak, but it's not dead. So the market will begin to trend down as the dollar trends up as folks think the recession is real and feel safe to use the little cash they have.

So i'm doing something very foolish, and redthumbing VXX againt the tide, and against Specbear.

rec me for bravery    :-)


I will mention some capitulation indicators that i've seen: Sometimes when i'm still not sure, i will check a stocks recently ended picks. I've seemed to noticed lately that a lot of high rated players i recognize are closing losing picks. 

As for myself; i continue to drop in score, though so far not as low as my lowest 2,500, while my accuracy continues to rise. I was a real newbie through this crises, and did probably every single thing wrong twice.
   I think i'm getting a little better though. For one, i'm learning patience. I have made points on stocks that i held in the negative for a year. And i understand the TA, and FA better, so now, not only do i look for the stock i want, i wait for a good price, and check that against the techincals. For instance, i like to put the MA, PSAR, and Bolinger on the same chart, and i really think that helps me buy 'on the dips', instead of just 'on the way down.  

Which is important, because here on caps we have that one week thing, so if i just get a bounce timed i can re-evaluate in this tricky market. Part trader, while looking for buy and hold. I've actually executed the plan correctly (i think) once or twice.. ..maybe.

I gotta go, i should be working.   :-)



1 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 16, 2009 at 2:47 PM, angusthermopylae (38.74) wrote:

Definitely recced for bravery--red-thumbing the red-thumb of the market...

Seriously, though--despite the scorn dumped on Senator "it's all psychological", there really is a psyche component.  Bad times can be put off (for a short while) as long as everyone  holds on to their happy thoughts.

Eventually, though, it all catches up...but you're probably right about the timing.

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