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Reflections on my picks for the year



December 30, 2006 – Comments (0)

My favorite picks:

Mastercard - great business, IPOed at arguably far too low a price,

France Telecom - good prospects in emerging markets, and a very nice dividend yield. I wish I had bought this (in real life) instead of New Zealand Telecom (although NZT is by no means a dog).

Expedia - up 30% since I picked it, up maybe 15% since I actually bought the stock with real money. Expedia looks like it's coming out of its rut.

Mills - this is a bit of a deep value stock that I wish I'd really bought. it's up 20% since my pick, and I think it's still undervalued.

Thomson ADR - up 25% since I picked it. I hadn't expected that much from the stock price.

Picks that made me go argh!

Whole Foods - stock walked off a cliff and plunged 25%. The long-term prospects for the business look good, though, and I'm hanging on. in fact, I'm buying more.

Tuesday Morning - dropped 10% on poor earnings news. Their business prospects are a little iffy, actually, and I MAY look to sell. They pay one hefty dividend a year in March, and this year's dividend looks OK. Next year may be another story. The stock is up almost 20% since I picked it, for now.

Apollo - walked off a cliff just like Whole Foods. now, I haven't actually bought the stock, but I intend to because the business looks solid. so, while Apollo hasn't helped my CAPS rating, I'm not too disappointed.

Banco Popular - stock seems to have hit a support level, but it's down about 10% from my pick. in real life, I've only lost a few %, and I think the business is probably solid long term. however, it's going to take a while for the business to look better and for the stock price to recover.

Westwood One - I was a score leader in the stock until their negative earnings surprise. I believed that the business had deteriorated, and ended my pick.

Lee - up 25% from when I picked it. however, based on M*'s poor evaluation of the future of the newspaper business, I ended my pick because I felt the shares were near fair value, and that the fair value wasn't going to increase very much with time. Too bad, but that's investing. at least this one didn't hurt much to end, in CAPS or in my real portfolio. I also ended my pick in Belo. I've picked Washington Post, and I'm sticking with that, because newspaper isn't a very large part of WPO's business.

Note that I'm commenting on what the stock PRICE has done. I've been a CAPS player only for a few months. I'm confident that I picked businesses that looked solid at the time I made the pick. long-term, I expect good performance from my picks. short-term, I've been getting pretty good performance, but short-term movements don't necessarily tell you a lot about the business.

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