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abitare (99.27)

Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects.

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July 01, 2008 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: SKF , SRS

"The man who has no sense of history, is like a man who has no ears or eyes."

"There is nothing new in the world except the history you do not know."

"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme."

-Mark Twain

A Critique of Reinventing Collapse This week's theme: Survival +   (June 25, 2008)


"Dmitri Orlov has written an entertaining and thought-provoking comparison of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the post-oil end-game here in the U.S.: Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects.

By his own account, "entertaining and thought-provoking" were his goals for the book, and he has succeeded very admirably. I can recommend the book wholeheartedly, even as I respectfully disagree with some of his conclusions. "

I really liked this write up. You can read the author's comments here:

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjun08/orlov6-08.html

If you want another example, Japan Deflation vs the US Deflation, Mish Shedlock has written: Deflation American Style

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Deflation American Style

Also if you prefer to watch, instead of reading. I recommend the PBS special Commanding Heights,

you can watch it for free via the internet. I have it posted here:

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=56508&t=01007146184382914537

4 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 01, 2008 at 10:38 AM, GNUBEE (25.08) wrote:

I agree with Charles Smith, and not with Dmitri. Thanks for that write up. Orlov's argument paints the US citizen as weak and incabable of surviving an economic collapse. I think that is far from the reality.

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#2) On July 01, 2008 at 10:39 AM, saunafool (98.64) wrote:

I agree wholeheartedly with Mish Shedlock Japan Deflation vs. US Deflation. We've got a whole pile of debt to work through and no way to pay it off.

The upside for America is that housing prices are falling quite rapidly. I expect much worse downside to the economy for the next few years as we work through the debt burden (and likely just have a huge slew of people, banks, businesses, and maybe local or state governments default). After that, the dollar will be worth another 25-50% less than now, we will have taken out the trash, and we can start to rebuild.

Maybe it doesn't turn out like that, but if I'm a middle class American, I'm building up my rainy day fund and preparing for some rough sledding.

Thanks for the links. 

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#3) On July 01, 2008 at 1:34 PM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

Hey Aba, Love the artical. Just wondering? What happened after the depression. WW2  will history repeat with WW3? Stock market crash? Look into your crystal ball mine has lots of bombs in mine.

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#4) On July 01, 2008 at 7:49 PM, abitare (99.27) wrote:

ALCON,

Thanks for the replies.

GNUBEE

I think the Americans in the mid-west will be fine. I would stay away from some of the Metro Areas. Have you seen the 1970s movie The Warriors? - It might get like that?

saunafool,

I am big fan of Mish. I read him everyday.

lquadland10,

I hope they avoid further war. It could further move the country to bankruptcy. 

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