Kobalt (82.08)

Rejiggering the old portfolio....

February 02, 2012 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: OMEX , NFLX , YHOO

I am ending three calls today.

Odyssey has had a great run.  The next few months will probably be bumpier than usual, and not in a way I can see as predictable.  With the federal appeals court ruling that Odyssey must give the Black Swan treasure back, the clock is probably ticking on the need to physically, actually, finally, surrender the coins to Spain (see huff.to/AkHyiL and tgr.ph/yGUbWr)

While the salvage rights on the Victory have been granted to Odyssey (nyti.ms/zhT8ft), and at a possible one billion dollars, has the potential of being worth more than the $500 million Black Swan value, the recovery time will be much longer.  Endless site characterization and staging will make that a very slow operation.  While the operation will begin this year, that is a multi-year operation.

After being long Yahoo, I shorted it when they chose the long course of CEO led rehabilitation.  The new CEO has begun to clear the way for significant change at Yahoo with the removal of Yang, and announcements are closer than they were a month ago.  Furthermore, Facebook's impending IPO will focus companies and their leadership in ways I am not ready to bet against including Yahoo.

Finally, Netflix has reached the proximity of its previous support / resistance / pause ($125 ish), ran up extremely fast, and now has more competitors than it did six months ago (BskyB, etc.).  Remarkably, they haven't seem to have changed their browser pop-under campaign.  Until they show us something new, I will take a break from the excitement.