January 21, 2014
– Comments (23)
Anybody else get the feeling he was some sort of con artist?
An inadvertent con artist. And also the mark.
Valyooo, you probably know how I feel about TMFSinch, but I don't think he was a con artist. I really feel like he had good intentions and wanted to help people make money investing in PMs and PM-miners.
However, he was just one of those stock pickers (I include myself here for right now) who seem like geniuses during a bull market but turn out to be total losers as soon as the things start going south.
My beef with him was that he never would let anyone suggest that he was just maybe, even remotely wrong about his "PMs to the moon and beyond" theory.
Every time anyone of us tried to suggest a different point of view, he'd argue back with "You have no idea what you are talking about" or "You are just buidling a strawman".
Even when he was proven to be very wrong in 2012 (when most of his picks plummeted 50%+), he'd argue how that was the exact "next best time to get into the PM miners" (most of them lost another 40-50% since then).
If you remember when you called him out on the poor performance of his CAPS portfolio, even then he couldn't admit that he was at least temporarely wrong - No, even then he said "See my other - silverminer - portfolio" (which at that time was still a 99-rating portfolio. Well, since then his silverminer portfolio lost thousands of points and now has a 30-rating.
One day, I'm sure he'll be back (when PMs come back and his portfolios again have good ratings) to tell us how the market has proven him right. He'll never mention that his PMs-related picks performed so badly for many years.
His supporters I'm sure will do the same - will celebrate his comeback never mentioning that they were bleeding longer and more profusely than any of the people who stayed in the market through 2007-2009.
#61) On May 09, 2012 at 4:12 PM, dragonLZ (99.72) wrote:
Valyooo, first of all, I think you are being too harsh on TMFSinchiruna. I think that saying stuff like "he lost people a lot of money" is a little bit too early right now. There is a very good chance lots of PM-investors are still holding onto the stocks they bought based on Sinch's recommendations, and very soon, if the sector's direction changes, they actually might have nice profits to show for it instead of losses.Having said that, I also don't agree with TMFSinch's reply "my long term view will prevail" as even people who bought BAC at $20 or $30 (when Sinch was saying buying BAC is a bad idea and later "bragged" about that call) can say the same thing.
People can hold onto their paper losses only for so long, and at some point (and unfortunately very often), paper losses become real losses (when people lose patience, get afraid or start doubting their calls, need money, find a better place for their money, etc.)
"My long term view" is a valid excuse only for so long, in my opinion.
Valyooo & DragonLZ - you're not the only ones who reads others opinions on the market. I do as often as I read Sinch's. I just come to different conclusions than you do and I tend to side with his analysis more often than not.
richthegeek, I don't think I ever said anything about Sinch's analysis.
I only said that some of the bad calls he recently made might turn into good calls, but if they don't (in a year or so), or those stocks fall down even further, then he should admit he was wrong.
Actually, if you ask me, there is nothing wrong with admitting that one was wrong short-term (which all of us are all the time) even if one will be (or believes will be) right long-term.
Oh yeah, and perhaps the very same hypothetical CAPS member would like to meet my other CAPS portfolio, silverminer:
Just that he "had other ventures" when it was clear that silver was plumetting, I kinda feel like he was a pump and dump guy for all those penny stock crap stocks like great panther, copper fox or whatever, etc. Promoting penny stocks and making money, then when they crash hes nowhere to be found, not even as a blogger or on twitter.
If you switch careers you have to stop tweeting? hmm
I dunno he did make me money. I think he was sincere but he held on too long. Inflation didn't play out as he and many expected and for 2 reasons. First, wage growth for the masses just isn't there. 2nd the banks prefer sitting on the cash since the FED pays them to do so hence the cash never really went into circulation.
I am still buying ALXDF, but I have a 10 year horizon. They just made a small sale for $5 million. Right now it is sitting on 3.3 cents per share in cash with stock selling for 4 cents and still sitting on a ton of assets.
I agree with Valyoo. I always felt he was a paid shill for somebody but could never figure out who. What ever happened to goodvibe4ever?
No way. Passionate guy and mau=ybe too passionate but seemed genuine to me. He also made me money several years back in PM. Agree with above that he just held too long and wasn't great about seeing opposing view points.
I will say that at least he was an active meber of the Fool. Those days are long gone and this site has lost a lot of great talent/minds whether you agreed with their thoughts or not. They still were willing to share.
the fed doesnt pay them to sit on the cash...banks dont lend out reserves
awallejr is correct, referring to this:
The Fed used to pay 0% on reserves held at the Fed. Since 2008 they have paid 0.25%.
awallejr is correct,
It is rare that people say this heheh.
"The Fed used to pay 0% on reserves held at the Fed. Since 2008 they have paid 0.25%."
Yes this part is true. But he is still 100% incorrect if he thinks that any bank would "prefer" to sit on their cash and earn 0.25% interest. The idea is patently ridiculous.
It would be like quitting a job that pays $100,000/year because you would prefer to take another job that only pays $10,000/year.
Except it is free money, no RISK and was designed to basically help banks recapitalize. Remember C was basically bankrupt in 2009. Its stock was selling for ninety-seven CENTS from a $54 high.
And why people still want to buy this stock is beyond me. Of all the large banks C has done nothing. Discount its 10 for 1 reverse split and it is still selling for a little over 5 bucks.
I'm aware the fed pays interest on reserves. But banks do not lend out reserves. Creating a loan does not alter the reserve position of a bank. So if a bank has no loans, or a million loans, it earns the same amount of interest on its reserves.
Seriously, read ANY link from an mmt guy (warren mosler in particular or l Randall wray) and you will get it immediately. Their conclusions suck but they explain it very well
Please. I've posted links and mentioned this so many times. If any of you ever even spent 30 minutes understandimg this, you wouldn't think that banks lend reserves, or that banks a re reserved constrained ever.
"Soft currency economics" is a very short, very inexpensive book that I highly recommend and read it in like two hours max and you'll learn a lot about central banking. It's completely worth it.
Valyoo it is paid on reserves AND EXCESS.
If you get a chance you might want to watch HBO's special "Too Big to Fail."
#7 - sorry that Sinch is no longer around. I enjoyed his comments, but then I was not here during the time that gold began dropping. I bear him no malice even though I did lose money on some of his picks. Since I did not know enough about gold/silver, I only put in the money that I expected to lose.
As to GoodVibe, he and Sinch had some extreme arguments because they disagreed so often. GV stated his intention to remain at CAPS for one year and then leave. I think his plan was then to continue investing for another year and followec by retirement. That would mean that he is now retired. The GoodVibe name is retired as he only used it for investment advice purposes.
What I most want to know is this - Where did everyone else go? How do we get them to come back???
I bear him no malice even though I did lose money on some of his picks.
Mary, I think you are the only person who lost money following Sinch's picks. Everyone else (including some hardcore Sinch followers) that Valyooo and I talked to here on CAPS was able to sell right before the PM-miners crashed.
I believe it was the "You Must Own" post that caught my eye. I had no gold stock. Whatever he was talking about was relatively inexpensive (penny stock territory.) I figured that if Sinch gave it the seal of approval, then it was safe. Yes, I know. Nothing in the market is ever safe, and that is why I only put in an amount that I could lose. It was insurance against a falling market. The only thing that fell was gold. Eventually I sold for a fraction of what I put in. For now, I think I will buy my gold in jewelry.
I did find Sinch's farewell blog yesterday and I do wish he would come back. He was a great person and tried to do his best for the people here. There are some who honestly(?) try to take advantage of others and some who just get caught in changing times. Gold will come back up at some point and hopefully Sinch will come back to find his friends still here.
I don't think you should accuse people of not understanding banking when you recently made elementary posts like this:
I've been polite/patient with you in previous posts but I think I will have to stop responding.