alstry (35.45)

Reported UNemployment blows through 7%

January 09, 2009 – Comments (3)

We are now at over 7% REPORTED unemployment

We are now over 12.5% REPORTED unemployment/underemployment

Economists on CNBS say we have over 10 million unemployment and over 20 million underemployed(hours cut, working part time, wages cut materially....ect......)

If we take the economists number......that puts the Alstrynomics functional unemployment number at about 20%......not too far away from 30%, 40% or maybe even more.

What even even more ominous is the hours worked continues to slide foreshadowing  more cuts ahead.

Remember, if you don't have a job, you can't make you mortgage payment....no matter how low the payment.  As more and more jobs get cut, expect more and more foreclosures.

As you get more and more foreclosures, you get to a point in Alstrynomics called saturatedsupply...a point with supply that there simply is too much to satisfy demand and prices drop dramatically. 

For example, on a street with 20 homes, it really doesn't matter if you have 10 foreclosures or 15 foreclosures....there is so much distressed inventory available few want to purchase on that street and there is only demand at give away pricing.

As more and more Americans lose their jobs, more and more will likely not be able to afford a home.  Sure there will be demand for homeownership, simply not qualification.  As more and more will be forced to put their homes up for sale.....the need to sell will increase driving home prices down even further.

No matter how low prices go, as supply outstrips demand, prices will continue to fall.  You can see the practical application of Alstrynomics in many inner city neighborhoods, new home developments in outlying areas, and areas where subprime lending concentrated.  In some neighborhoods, paying  a dollar for a home is too much.

The tsunami is now hitting the shore.  I warned you it was comimg.  Hopefully most of you are prepared.  The opportunities will be amazing......so will the pain.