Reviewing my 2009 Blogs
I'm not going to go through these one by one, because that would be a waste of time. I'll just highlight a few that caught my eye just now. A lot of them can be judged by just the titles. In general, the posts were of low quality and the number of recs reflected that. It took me quite a while to reach double digit recs and I deserved to take that long.
It's fun to go back, see what you said back then, and then see how things have changed. One of the things I've been doing as part of the analyst development program is to keep a journal. I make an entry every time I buy or sell, everytime I have something to say on something about the economy or financial markets, etc. A lot of the time, it's the thought process, not the outcome that matters (although outcome is indeed important).
Some of these make me want to punch my old self in the face while some of them are pleasantly surprising in that I'd only change a few things had they been rewritten today. I'm sure I could write a huge critical analysis of each blog if I felt like it, I'll just be content with getting the gist down. I think the 2010 review will have a lot more meat in it..
June 3, 2009: Commodity Emergency Fund
How incredibly stupid! Commodities were cheap, and yes, I would've gotten out by now (now that they're not dirt cheap), but that's still not a very smart thing to do with emergency funds. Liquidity, not returns, are more important with emergency funds.
June 16, 2009: Do Your Due Diligence!
While I would expand this blog substantially if I were to seriously redo this post, I actually agree with most of the original content.
September 16, 2009: Be a Security Analyst, Not a Market Analyst
The entire text:
Avoiding stocks because you think the market is overvalued? Stupid.
Avoiding stocks because you can't find a single undervalued stock? Smart.
Be sure to examine your reason for buying or avoiding stocks; it might be the wrong one.
I actually still feel the same way today. As long as I continue to find stocks with attractive reward-to-risk ratios, I will continue to buy. When the reward-to-risk starts approaching 1:1 (higher, actually), I will stop buying.
September 24, 2009: COH: The First Stock I Ever Bought
I started buying stocks in October 2008. The first stock? You guessed it: COH. This post was a reproduction of the exact analysis I'd used in October 2008. Great outcome, but the analysis needed a ton of improvement. Still, I think that wasn't bad for a first analysis of a company.
October 1, 2009: SUTR Looks Cheap.
I called SUTR an Indian steel company when it was a Chinese one. I'd really only picked this one from a screener and obviously hadn't done proper due diligence. Big fail here.
October 14, 2009: My 5 Favorite Stocks, Period.
The list? CHCG.OB, CNOA.OB, GRUS.OB (now GFRE), LTUS.OB, ORS
Ouch. This post still hurts - I suffered pretty big losses with ORS till I realized it was a pretty terrible investment. I'm no longer a complete micro cap speculator, but it's good to look back and shake my head - it reminds me of my unfortunate past.
October 23, 2009: Red Thumbs Too Easy to Find -- The Market is Overvalued
To be fair, I thought it was only a little bit overvalued. I was still net long stocks in a big way. I'm pretty sure I got a lot of recs from the bears.
November 16, 2009: It's All About Valuation, Stupid!
Ah, my highest recommended post ever. If I were to rewrite this one, I'd probably de-emphasize Graham a bit more. I still mention The Intelligent Investor as my favorite investing book, but only because it repeatedly beats you over the head with "buy cheap" and "market psychology" type stuff (extremely important for any value investor).