Way2Risky (< 20)

Ride 'em cowboy

October 29, 2008 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: SSO , SDS , UWM

Dang 'it - why did I move from short to cash a month ago?  I should have had lot's more faith in our poli-tic-ians to run things into the ground.  That move reflected my real portfolio as well.  Anyway, I am grateful that I walked away with some profits and my trading is up for the year while the market is down 40 points.

Overall, I would be doing great if I didn't have fat losses on two LTBH (long term buy hold) positions that I took starting last year - FMD and CVH.  My position in FMD was way too large and hopefully I learned my lesson there. 

Nonetheless, I would like to take this opportunity to chastise the folks here at fool.com premium services for recommending these picks.  FMD is a "hidden gem" (the kind that my cat buries) and CVH was a "best buy" from Stock Advisor. Those free trial subscriptions cost me plenty!  Really though, my complaint with them is not the performance of the picks.  Any stock picker will have a combination of winners and losers.  Rather, I take objection with the misguided preaching on investing that they do.  Thou must do long term buy and hold.  Thou must not take refuge in cash - that's for sissies that are doomed to miss out on the real profits! They don't even broach annoying topics such as portfolio allocation, money management, and risk premiums.  Rather, just plunk your retirement nest-egg on our brilliant picks and hold them for 30 years.  It'll work out just fine!

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My last move here on Caps was a bit of chutzpah as I went long in the middle of this mess.  Thus far, it has earned me enough points to get me into the top 1000 after a bit of a ride there!  I closed out the long positions that I could, while the rest have not met the 7 day minimum.   Of course, I do have the option of offsetting my longs with married short positions.  

Don't worry, I'm not that brazen in my real portfolio, where I have been mostly in cash for the past month.  I did make some small long plays for a small profit and have since closed them.  I sold my UWM position today before the fed's announcement as I figured that it would bring mostly downside risk.

GLTA - especially my fiendish colleagues endeavoring to time the market.