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alstry (35.50)

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May 05, 2009 – Comments (21)

As I told you last week...at about the 8300 level.....it is very likely we are at the top of this run.

Physical gold backing on the Massive Convex Reflector formation is at its most powerful at the 8400 level.......couple that with the incredibly destructive effects of the Zombulator and we could easily be looking at sub 5000 on the Dow before the end of the summer....maybe more maybe less.

As this blog is being written, in just a few days we are going to find out that the unemployment rate has likely skyrocketed above 17%.  We are seeing commercial real estate loan defaults increasing at parabolic rates.  On July 1st, many municipalities will be revising their budgets and constituents are likely in for a BIG SHOCK on what they might learn.  The bank closings have really ramped up in recent weeks with 3 or 4 per week while few of us know how the pension shortfall mess will play out.  Thousands of auto dealers are nervously awaiting their fate as few know how this massive bankruptcy process will play out.

With millions of families kicked out of their homes, on the brink of losing their jobs, or facing massive wage cuts......we are facing very serious econmic and social issues as we move into the summer.  This is not a doom and gloom forecast.....simply the facts.  Without accurate knowledge...you can't have freedom.

If you went to the doctor and she knew you had a rapidly metastecising pancreatic cancer......would you want her to tell you it was indigestion and take a antacid and call her in a few months?  Not Alstry.....  Alstry is the doctor of Alstrynomics and diagnoses the economy as the data presents.

If you want BS.....the mainstream media is filled with it for your consumption all day and night long.

It is not easy being the doctor of Alstrynomics making call after call.  Warning you last year that pensions and municipalities were facing serious issues.  That our banking system was on the brink of collapse as you were being told all was fine and subprime would be contained.  Forecasting unemployment rates that few were willing to make and now we on the brink of crossing the 20% threshold.  Calling deflation when most were screaming inflation.  Telling you quickly that the swine flu was no more serious than the regular few as the mainstream media was trying to scare you into buying every drug stock possible.

I know, how can one blogger be so right about so many things so often and so many get it so wrong over and over...........easy....it takes focus, fortitude, and frugality fostering fantastic forecasts few feel are favorable at the time.  However....fornicating Fools always learn in the end function follows facts......and Alstry is formally the fact physician flipping flavors de jour and folding them with figures into your favorite free, fast, and fun fundemental forecastor fortifying the fuel for you and your family's financial foundation......

Remember....never FEAR.....prepare........

21 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 05, 2009 at 2:18 PM, tfirst (31.15) wrote:

Wow! You're a legend in you own mind. I say you'll see S&P at922 before the big drop begins. I don't disagree with you but I find you as guilty as the news media for exagerating and manipulating facts. The thing about that is, the newspapers are going out of business. Is it just a dying industry? Or has the mainstream just gotten tired of the BS and stopped buying? When the advice is free, you get what you pay for.

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#2) On May 05, 2009 at 2:27 PM, alstry (35.50) wrote:

Alstry is not a legend....yet.....EverydayInvestor gets that title for now.  He has demonstrated an ability to remain on top through up and down markets......

But the opera ain't over until the fat lady sings.  Sometimes the best things in life are free;)

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#3) On May 05, 2009 at 4:07 PM, alstry (35.50) wrote:

Get ready for the flood of NEW job cuts!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Who needs a job if the market is going up???????

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Microsoft Corp. has begun a second round of layoffs as part of a plan to cut 5,000 jobs -- and Chief Executive Steve Ballmer strongly hinted that more positions could be eliminated in light of the economic downturn. Report this comment
#4) On May 05, 2009 at 4:39 PM, awallejr (83.83) wrote:

Alstry, out of idle cuiosity, and please don't skirt or evade the question, how high do you think U3 unemployment will go?

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#5) On May 05, 2009 at 5:03 PM, alstry (35.50) wrote:

The only thing U3 measures is the concentration of people who have lost their jobs in the past six months AND who are still collecting unemployment benefits.

It is simply a snap shot of the RATE of job loss for the past six months....my guess is that U3 will not exceed 10 or 11% even as U6, or the aggegate unemployment rate, exceeds 30%.

That said....it only means approximately 10% of the workforce is losing their jobs every six months and not getting a part time job or replacement work during that period of time.....at that rate....in 24 months....... over 40% of the workforce will be unemployed per U6 calculations.

I am not sure about your fixation with U3....it has only been used since Clinton became president simply to minimize the percecption of total unemployment.....but whom am I to disturb your fixations.

Quite frankly, I like it when you fail to see the picture clearly..you are a lot more fun....sorta like my six year old.

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#6) On May 05, 2009 at 5:23 PM, awallejr (83.83) wrote:

Your typical childish comments aside, you are predicting U3 to top 10-11% and (as per most of your other blogs) U6 topping 50%.  Basically that makes it a 5 to 1 correlation which has never ever happened throughout history, nor is there any reason to expect it to occur.  So basically in the end your numbers are coming out of your "end." 

As for U6 v U3 I already responded to that in another thread.  I just wanted to pin you down here. Your U3 predicition at least is reasonable and in line with most analysts.

 

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#7) On May 05, 2009 at 5:33 PM, alstry (35.50) wrote:

Actually, comparing you to my six year old would be an insult to her.....

U6 will likely exceed 17% by the end of the week.  It will likely exceed 20% by the middle of Summer.

Let's you and I revisit the issue this Winter when we exceed 25% real unemployment rate as U3 can remain at 11% and we still lose over 2 million jobs per month.

An 11% U3 job loss rate is an incredible number and even Alstry would be surprised if we were losing OVER 15 million jobs every six months.

Just curious....how old are you in real life and are you a male or female?

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#8) On May 05, 2009 at 6:46 PM, awallejr (83.83) wrote:

Let's see you have been spamming blogs claiming the unemployment rate will be worse than the Great Depression.  You have stated in this blog that you think U3 will cap 10-11 %.  The Great Depression unemployment number is put at 25% which is basically a U3 number.

U6 includes part timers.  It is too speculative.  People work 2 part time jobs but wanting fulltime.  You count them unemployed.  A household with 2 fulltimers having one knocked down to part time. You count it as now 50% unemployed.  A person working fulltime knocked down to part time, but needing fulltime work should be considered tantamount to unemployed.  U6 simply does not differentiate these scenarios. 

U6 will ALWAYS be higher than U3 simply because of the inclusion of part timers in it.  If U3 caps near 10-12% you would possibly  see a cap at 20% U6.

But you shout 50%!!!  Which now, by your own admission of 10-11% U3 cap, simply proves you are nothing more than an obtuse bullshitter. 

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#9) On May 05, 2009 at 8:58 PM, alstry (35.50) wrote:

I may be obtuse....but your are stubbornly and wilfully ignorant.

I was waiting for you to blog in this fashion....it would be fun to have you on the witness stand.

If you actually knew what you were talking about, you would know that The Great Depression statistic used at the time was an even more aggressive number than current U6.  You can confirm this by reading well respected statistician and economist John Williams at ShadowStats.com.

He estimates that current Depression era unemployment figure would be closer to 20% and not the more conservative 16.2% U6 number currently reported by the Department of Labor.

As far as your part time argument, U6 dismisses it by only including part timers wanting to work full time.

But since Alstry and The Institute of Alstrynomics likes to be conservative....we settle for the U6 number.

Mathematically, although not statistically likely, U3 could remain under 10% and the American unemployment could eventually exceed 90%......but my guess is that you may be mathematically challenged to comprehend and for that I will give you a break.

Now...calling me a BSer is within your rights....but simply factually wrong.......further, I simply cannot compensate for your mathematical inadaquacy.

I truly wish you well.....hopefully one day you will actually learn and maybe.....just maybe.....your score will exceed zero....good luck.

Not only is Alstrynomics all about being right...it is also all about being conservative in its estimates.

And by the way....there is no need for you to thank me for the free education.

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#10) On May 05, 2009 at 11:04 PM, awallejr (83.83) wrote:

You used the same John Williams at Shadowstats in your other blogging, where he said "in his best estimate". Of course he never sets forth his methodolgy, but hey he said in a reuters blurb "in his best estimate" so it must be true.   Want more details from him?  Pay for his newsletter service.  It might be a little cheaper than Jim Cramer's. 

As for U6 it defines part time as follows "people who want and are available for full time work but had to settle for part time."  By virtue of definition U6 will always be higher than U3 because it includes working part timers.  The scenarios I illustrated above fill that definition yet cover very different situations with different ramifications.

Show me when both U6 and U3 were calculated that you ever had a 5 to 1 correlation, which is exactly what you are predicting by your own admissions.  Can't? I thought so.

Keep bullshitting the numbers.

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#11) On May 05, 2009 at 11:18 PM, alstry (35.50) wrote:

Awa....

The numbers are the numbers and there is nothing you or I can do about it.

For example....your score is negative....its been negative for a very long time....you can make all the excuses you want....you can call me whatever you like.....there is simply no way of changing the fact that your score was negative yesterday, negative today, and likely negative tomorrow.

Last year....U6 was less than 8%.....the year before that it was even lower.....now it is over 16%.....on Friday it will be likely over 17%.....by mid summer it will probably exceed 20% and by the end of the year surpass 25%.

Really, there is no joy for me reporting those numbers....the numbers are what they are....unfortunately behind each number is a human being.....and often an entire family........suffering because of the statistics you and I so seemingly flipently throw around.

That is the real loss....the distress millions of Americans are facing everyday because of little hope for prospects of earning an income.

Each day we learn about company after company cutting even more workers and reducing the salaries of those remaining on payroll.

I can't help the fact you obviously don't give a damn about those people....you are who you are.....

so remember, when U6 comes out on Friday and it reports over 17%.....we are conemplating over 25 million Americans and their families likely affecting over 50 million citizens.....and that does not even include the millions upon millions of independant contractors struggling not even counted in the statistics....

As I said above.....you are who you are.....and based on this recent exchange.....your score seems to reflect your character.....even if it is rising.....you are still less than zero....and those are simply the numbers and the facts.

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#12) On May 05, 2009 at 11:56 PM, awallejr (83.83) wrote:

Keep with the ad hominems, it is the only thing left for you to argue with.  You failed to show where U6 and U3 ever correlated to a 5 to 1 ratio.  And there is a reason for that.  It never ever has. Yet that is exactly what you are prediciting. It is possible it will hit 17% friday since U3 might hit 8.9. Far cry from a 5 to 1 correlating increase. 

I'm just not letting you off the hook.  You make asinine predictions and when taken to task you ultimately resort to simple name calling. 

You have now boxed yourself into a position where you capped your U3 predicition at 10-11%.  But that has little shock value in your sky is falling blogs.  So pump up another to a level that simply could never ever happen given your 10-11% U3 cap.

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#13) On May 06, 2009 at 3:42 AM, alstry (35.50) wrote:

You failed to show where U6 and U3 ever correlated to a 5 to 1 ratio.  And there is a reason for that.  It never ever has. Yet that is exactly what you are prediciting.

BINGO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You are a lot smarter than you come off......I knew it was in there somewhere....you just had to work at it a bit.

That is why.....when it does.........Alstrynomics should win a Nobel Prize and you should be the one who makes sure it get nominated.......as it has NEVER happened before and that is exactly what Alstry is predicting.......................something that has never happened before....

just like when Alstry predicted the collapse of the banking system when your Federal Reserve chief said all was contained, the current fiscal crisis affecting almost all municipalities, the parabolicly rising U6 rate, the extent of the current collapse of housing, and others .......none of those  had ever happened before either........

DO YOU THINK ALSTRYNOMICS CAN ONLY PREDICT WHAT HAS HAPPENED BEFORE???????????????????????????

Alstrynomics is all about SUCCESSFULLY predicting what has never happened before.....and a 30-50% U6 unemployment rate will be simply another successful, albeit not pleasant, prediction along a growing line of successful predictions THAT HAS NEVER HAPPENED  BEFORE......

Why do you think Alstry is the Doctor of Alstrynomics???  Do you think one gets conferred with such an achievement here at  the Institute of Alstrynomics without serious and rigorous review.

By the way....Alstry loves having you around.......thanks for being you.

Alstry looks forward to your nomination for a nobel prize when he successfully achieves what you say is unachievable.  Now go back to focusing on what has happened before......because it has no relevance, or more likely little relevance to the  current environment.

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#14) On May 06, 2009 at 3:53 AM, awallejr (83.83) wrote:

So basically, by your own admission  and in the end, it is just bullshit on your part.  Since historically U6 and U3 is basically a 2 to 1 ratio, you just out of your arse decided it should eventually become a 5 to 1 ratio.  No empirical justification, just a wild speculative GUESS on your part. 

So all your posturing aside, you ultimately agree with me. You are just bullshitting the audience with the HOPE that you actually might be proven right, despite the fact that MILLIONS would have to suffer as a result.  Man you are pathetic.

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#15) On May 06, 2009 at 4:04 AM, alstry (35.50) wrote:

The only person who said U6 is a two to one ratio is you........not Alstry nor anyone at the Institute of Alstrynomics that I am aware of has ever made such a ridiculous assertion.

Only a person who didn't understand the relationship between U3 and U6 could make such a limited comment.

For example, a couple years ago.... the spread was closer to one to one.

Now it is about two to one......and soon it will be three to one by the end of the year based simply on current trends.

It is not about hope....it is about understanding the math.....something you obviously don't.......but that is OK......we all have our strengths and weaknesses.

Your frustration is understandable and I am actually trying to help you through it.....keep saying to yourself....I think I can.

As the year progresses....observe how the ratio starts approaching three to one......I will look forward to your response then as the cobwebs clear and the light starts turning on in your head........

At this point, the only thing we agree on is your comprehension of math is somewhat limited....but I have no doubt you have some capacity to learn.

Just curious.....are you still a virgin???.....because at some point hopefully.....it will be something that has never happened before.

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#16) On May 06, 2009 at 4:36 AM, awallejr (83.83) wrote:

U6 to U3 has historically been basically a 2 to 1 ratio, show me when it was ever higher.  You simply can't.  And beyond the fact that you can't, it also makes little sense.  You would have argue that most people will ultimately be part time employees. 

I wouldn't worry about my sexual activity, it is irrelevant to the discussion. But hey keep grasping at straws in order to misdirect the readers. 

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#17) On May 06, 2009 at 8:31 AM, alstry (35.50) wrote:

First, the virgin comment was really not directed at you....simply many things happen for the first time that never happened before.

You are an easy target because you like to bait me.

Further, an entire recent NYT bestseller was written on the subject.

Those that can see the "unforeseen" can make HUGE profits.....but conversely, if you play it wroing, or mistime it, HUGE losses.

If you want to play with Alstry....feel free.  If you think I am misdirecting readers....that is your perrogative.  People used to often accuse me of similar when I was forecasting 50% housing price correction........and unfortunately I turned out to be right again.

I have little doubt that at the current trajectory....the U6 to U3 ratio will expand and U6 will exceed Great Depression Levels.

You don't have to agree.....but if you choose to keep pestering me......please accept that I may respond by trying to swat you like a pest.

If I turn out to be right and we have 50% unemployment....we will have very serious issues facing us in America.....let's you and I have a drink today hoping I am wrong.

 

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#18) On May 06, 2009 at 9:03 AM, awallejr (83.83) wrote:

U6 by definition could reach Great Depression numbers, tho not Great Depression farmer numbers which was around 37%.  As I stated U6 and U3  tend to be 2 to 1 in ratio.  So with a potential 10 to maybe 12 % U3 could equate to a 20-24% U6.  But as I stated part time status in U6 can be misleading because not all part timers are "equal" per my prior illustrations.

I pray we never reach those highs, because it would mean millions more will be suffering.  And I most certainly pray we never reach 50% U6 because then we truly hit Great Depression numbers (25% U3).  Fortunately the recent rate of decline has again declined per automatic data processing.  Hopefully this trend will continue.

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#19) On May 06, 2009 at 9:21 AM, alstry (35.50) wrote:

At this point....let's agree to disagree.

Let's wait and see how Friday's numbers come out.......

Please pay special attention to the rate of increase of U3 versus the rate of increase of U6.

In the mean time.....I have to go give a presentation to a bunch of High Schoolers on exactly what I do for a living......at this point.....I have no clue what I am going to say.

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#20) On May 06, 2009 at 9:43 AM, awallejr (83.83) wrote:

I could give you a clue.

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#21) On May 06, 2009 at 10:45 AM, OleDrippy (35.57) wrote:

"Just curious.....are you still a virgin???.....because at some point hopefully.....it will be something that has never happened before."

 

- Snap! +1

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