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Right in the ...!



October 22, 2009 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY

So, you've been watching Mad Money haven't you?  Admit it, you have been not only watching Cramer, but the rest of the net fishers and cheerleaders on CNBC.  I know it, and what's funny is I know you know I know, and heck, even Al knows what you've been doing. 

Please don't tell me you have been taken in.  Please don't tell me you are on some quest to "Get Back to Even" by investing in the American markets.  Please don't tell me!!!

Alright, go ahead and tell me. 


Enough already!

I submit, the current market rally is real, it must be, the chest thumping guys and screechy chickies on CNBC say it is.  You must be right, the DOW is going back to 14,000 by next year.  There is no reason to be hesitant.  No reason to take profits.  You can get back to even if you just stay in!!!  It's true.

STOP! Cramer time> baa dadada budumb badumb,

My-my-my-my (U can't touch this) Cramer hits me so hard
Makes me say,"oh my lord thank you for blessing me
With a mind to rhyme and two hyped feet"
It feels good
When you know you're sown
A superdope homeboy from the Phillytown
And I'm known as such
And this is a beat-uh!
U can't touch this

Alright, I'm being harsh, to Cramer's credit, he is saying take some profits right now, in between giving people stocks that have run up 40% or 50% to buy.  A bunch of those other jokers on Cartoon Network Business Channel, especially Dennis "Fozzy Bear" Neal have the pom pons going up down and all around at warp speed.

So what's my message other than making a little fun of a network that's easy to make fun of?

Just this: The current rally is the biggest sucker's rally since 2007 (remember markets peaked in 2007, not 2008). 

If you are close to retiring, get down to about 25% American equities or equity funds, and make them the value oriented type that pay some dividend.  The rest ought to be spread all over the globe in commodities, currencies and dividend paying stocks.  That's right, dump your bonds for the most part (cuz inflation in coming in a year or two), 'cept for a real return fund for loot you might need in the next five years and possibly a global bond fund that will buy some converts & preferreds (I'm not even sure that exists on the open end side, probably have to go closed end so you'll have to be mindful not to pay too high expenses and that there is liquidity).

Anyway, you can ignore me, I'm only right ALMOST all of the time (and really I'm not that smart, I just copy really smart guys).  Just remember this, I told you the crash was coming way ahead of time, about the same time I told clients and yanked a ton of their money out of the American markets (though in I habve been heavier in currencies, commodities and foriegn stocks since 1999 than our silly friend Modern Portfolio Theory would have recommended), and I'm telling you again now that there will be another major correction (I think not as harsh, butt we'll see) real soon.  If you ignore me, I bet you take it right in the butt.- AGAIN. Can you afford that?

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 22, 2009 at 10:12 AM, anticitrade (98.59) wrote:

According to your accuracy you are right about 64.8% of the time.....   Does that constitute "right ALMOST all of the time"?

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#2) On October 22, 2009 at 10:58 AM, kirkydu (90.42) wrote:

this is a game and in fact I posted when I started that to me it was basically a watch list that I wouldn't update often.  The fact I can be right 64.8% of the time without paying much attention here, which is fact better than about 98% of investors I think is fairly impressive as a matter of fact.  If you think I'm wrong about something speak up, otherwise, read what I write smart guy.

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#3) On October 22, 2009 at 11:40 AM, anticitrade (98.59) wrote:

Since your post didn't contain any explanation of WHY you think you are right and WHY you think these other parties are wrong, readers can not evaluate the value of your claims based on their own merit.  Consequently, you make outrageous and unbacked claims like:  "right ALMOST all of the time".  Since you chose to make the credability of your argument based entirely on your own credabiility (and not on argument reasoning), that is what I have to challenge if I disagree with you.

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#4) On October 22, 2009 at 11:52 AM, leohaas (30.14) wrote:

"Anyway, you can ignore me, I'm only right ALMOST all of the time"


You were wrong on April 5th, about 250 S&P500 points ago.

Again on May 31st 150 points ago.

Then on June 9th also 150 points ago.

In July you did not post any blogs, and your August blogs were exclusively about health care reform.

Early in September, you called a depression that never was.

On September 29th you received 58 recs for again urging retail investors to get out.

You seem to have lost out on one of the largest rallies in history! God, am I glad I did not follow your advice...



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#5) On October 22, 2009 at 12:15 PM, kirkydu (90.42) wrote:

well Leohaas, I believe in picking low hanging fruit, and not climbing up to high on the ladder.  Serves me and others very well.  Take as much risk as you want.  Taking risk DOES NOT translate to making more money.  Cutting risk translates to making more money. 

BTW, on February 27th I said this

"In the not too distant future, my guesstinilysis, is that we get a sharp rebound rally by early May.  Something towards 11,000 on the Dow ultimately a year or two out."

We're getting close to that limit I see.  Maybe my limit is high, maybe a little low.  Why would a prudent investor be buying after such a big run up that is not supported by the economics and earnings outlook?  Silliness IMO.

Pretty good huh.  I caught the early big part of the rally, not the late shallow part.  For the past two years, I'm up low double digits now.  Is that great?  You decide.  I know it's top 10% v the SMA managers, hedge fund managers and mutual fund managers.

Not a depression???  You sir are no fool, you are an idiot.

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#6) On October 22, 2009 at 4:49 PM, kirkydu (90.42) wrote:

leo, just thought since I had a minute I'd defend myself against your balony, which I can only surmise is our of ignorance, arrogance or dishonest manipulation of others, or all of the above:

Here's what I said on April 5th: I'll be selling a lot of equity holdings into whatever rally is left and picking up some currency shares in commodity rich financially strong countries- you can count them on one hand even if you are feeling a little loony.

(FXA & FXC which are what I owned did pretty well from April to August which is when I sold out of those.  I recently bought CYB.)

Here's what I said on May 31st: In the intermediate term, in my and some other credible investor's opinions, we are likely to make more money  overseas (and in Canada).

(Foriegn markets have trounced the U.S.)

June 9: If you're a bull, you're about to become steak!

(Not yet proven, butt remember, I was in FXA and FXC, as well as international holdings, while I sold the out the rest of my American stocks.)

September 29: Start copying rich guys by buying what they buy when you can get it at the same price or cheaper, or hire them. 

(I'll stick by that. And, that post was really about how bad the financial industry is.)

And seriously, Leo, do really believe we aren't in a depression.  Unemployment, real unemployment, is well into the upper teens, that sure makes an awful lot of people depressed.


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