Risk; reward; human nature
Checked in on GBT, formerly ABAT.OB, and Hall9999. What an interesting game this is and what fun and interesting players! For me, the best learning has always come through the mistakes of others. After a while, sharpening up that BS detector, certain themes come into focus. It is very tempting to invest emotionally of course, which is what most if not all of us do in the beginning. After a while I start to see things less clearly. I do however begin to "feel" more acutely. The feelings can't necessarily help me pick a winner nor avaid a loser, but it certainly helps.
There are so many red flags on GBT that I can see nothing but. First, China. The amount of money in that country looking for a home is pressuring stock values very high. Ultimately, a company is worth only what the market agrees it's worth. Theoretically, a company's value is it's book, but if push came to shove, true value is far less. This is a well constructed game of gambling and as long as we're clear on that and all wish to continue playing...
Second, exchange standards; far looser on AMEX than NASDAQ or NYSE . Why would a company choose AMEX? Perhaps their reporting is not so good. In some discussions around the stock, it is quite obvious that this is true.
Third, The underlying battery business is far too capital intensive and competitive for a company without disruptive technology to make real headway in such short fashion. ULBI is an established company working like mad to build a respectable business...heck, you can even find a real product on the shelf at CVS. Where can you buy anything from GBT...or it's subsidiaries(?!)
Fourth- subsidiaries!!?...what the heck does a teeny tiny little company have subsidiaries for? Can you say "Shell Game?" I have owned many companies through the years who have subsidiary businesses beginning with Gulf + Western in 1976 and ending with ADSX today. GE...they can have subsidiaries. GBT and ADSX? nah. Really, what is the point of having a bunch of businesses, related or unrelated? For a large cap it's like being it's own mutual fund. For a micro-cap, it's like trying to look bigger than you are. How about they just put their heads down, get to work, grow the business in a responsible manner and make a living for themselves. If Wall Street catches on, fine, if not, they shouldn't care. Then when Wall Street does catch on, you'll have an EML...a company deserving of every bit of excess value the market offers them.
oh, and lastly, we're in a positive market environment, last couple of days notwithstanding. This is especially true of China. In a positive environment more stocks go up than go down. So you're shooting fish in a barrel. It's all well and good to play the game, but know the rules, human nature and the nature of the fire burning at your fingertips.
and last lastly, if Hall9999 reads this, I AM NOT BEING CRITICAL OF YOU! Your picking style is like so many who use real money. If the game is going to be of any value to us, we have to realize that this is not church. Rock on 99, and I'll be watching how it turns out for you (over time).