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Robin Griffiths Interview

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June 27, 2010 – Comments (8)

This is one of the best interviews I think I have ever heard. There was so much of what Mr. Griffiths had to say that I agreed with, including the fact that he as a Keynesian trained ecnomist says that Keynesian ecnomics is a failure and the Austrian economic interpretation of the macro and monetary situation correctly predicted much of the crisis. He works with cycles analysis (something that I am very interested in and find very useful). He is quite bearish on the markets. And while he has been bearish on gold for much of his 44 years in the markets, he is bullish on it now. He takes a very pragmatic view of gold and the current macro situation. This is a very good interview and is definitely worth 20 minutes of your time.

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LISTEN TO FULL INTERVIEW HERE

Robin Griffiths is Cazenove Capital Management’s Private Wealth Strategist - Robin has 44 years investment experience and is considered to be one of the top strategists in the world. Robin developed his own system, analyzing stock and market trends. He is followed globally because of his ground breaking work on world stock markets, bonds, currencies and commodities.  Cazevone as a group now manages nearly £15 billion on behalf of their client base and is one of the oldest and most respected names in the financial community, tracing its origins back to the 17th century. In this interview Robin discusses this depressionary cycle, the possibility of the S&P breaking to new lows, the US dollar, some significant price targets for gold and more.

Biography from Cazenove Capital Managment

Robin Griffiths - CCM Technical Strategist -- ROBIN GRIFFITHS joined Cazenove Capital in 2008 as Technical Strategist providing strategic input and marketing support, primarily to Private Wealth Management. For over 30 years Robin Griffiths has been one of the most respected technical analysts of world stock markets, bonds, currencies and commodities. He became a technical analyst with WI Carr, based first in Hong Kong and then Tokyo before returning to London. During this time he started to develop his own trading system, analysing stock and market trends. He was then chief technical strategist with HSBC for over 20 years. His most recent position was as Head of Asset Allocation with Rathbones. Robin has been an advisor to the ECU fund, a hedge fund using technical analysis to capture movements in currencies since 1985 and latterly to the Rathpeacon fund, a long short equity fund concentrating on the largest 500 companies in the world by market capitalisation. Robin has 44 years investment experience.

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 27, 2010 at 1:45 PM, DarthMaul09 (29.79) wrote:

In the interview I wasn't sure if he felt that gold mining stocks would act like the metal or act like a stock.  He seemed to imply that the mining stocks should start going up now after the metal prices have led the way, but with a significant downturn predicted to begin in a month, is the return likely to be better holding the metal or holding the PM miners?

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#2) On June 28, 2010 at 7:12 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.84) wrote:

DarthMaul09

A large enough sell-off in broader equity markets to cause indisciminate selling could certainly impact mining shares in the near-term, but I don't anticipate anything even close to the malaise they encountered in 2008. I have said before I anticipate mining shares experiencing only a brief period of weakness at the start of a broad market selloff until fleeing investors come to terms with how few safe haven assets are truly available.

Aside from having some physical exposure, it's also a good time to have a little cash on the sidelines in case some incredible bargains were to be created in mining shares during the first few weeks / months of a panic-driven selloff.

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#3) On June 28, 2010 at 7:13 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.84) wrote:

binve ... thanks for the interview ... I look forward to listening if I find a free moment.

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#4) On June 28, 2010 at 10:04 AM, hhasia (65.68) wrote:

HI

I have a question, not related to this post.  

If the $ is devalued ( which I think will be a move to mitigate the debt issues) will all other currencies fall in tandum? If the $ crashes further what is the impact?

Globally a crashed reserve (  trade currency ) would do what to the the other currencies I hold?

I'm revamping the portfolio. Buying RMB ( Chinese currency)

Thanks

Just a note, no matter what  is said in the press, China will not be bullied to what the world wants with respect to the RMB if it hurts her people in the process. The lessons of Japan are well documented, the issue is not about trade. The issue is to bring down China internally.

 

HHASIA

 

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#5) On June 28, 2010 at 12:10 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

DarthMaul09 ,

People have different theories, but mine is described here: Gold Miner Performance Relative to Gold. The short version being: This crisis will be a fiscal / monetary / debt crisis, and real money (gold) will be the premier asset. There is nothing that I am more bullish on for the long term than physical gold. This is because miners act somewhat like leveraged gold. That being said, there will be very manic periods during the crisis where gold rises and miners will outperform gold for short periods. But over the long term gold will outperform. I want exposure to both phenomena so I hold gold and gold miners as well, since I can't predict when miners will have their spikes. My $0.02. 

TMFSinchiruna ,

Hey Sinch!

>>binve ... thanks for the interview ... I look forward to listening if I find a free moment.

Definitely! I hope you like it!

hhasia ,

>>If the $ is devalued ( which I think will be a move to mitigate the debt issues) will all other currencies fall in tandum?

From a currency pair perspective, no. A falling dollar woud cause the other half of the pair to rise. But I think the reality of the situation is that all major central banks will be following the lead of the Fed. The ECB might be slightly more responsible than the Fed, but that assumes that the Euro survives, which is not a given.

>>Globally a crashed reserve (  trade currency ) would do what to the the other currencies I hold?

I honestly don't know. And I am not trying to be flip, but that's why I hold gold.

>>Just a note, no matter what  is said in the press, China will not be bullied to what the world wants with respect to the RMB if it hurts her people in the process. The lessons of Japan are well documented, the issue is not about trade.

I agree. The Chinese government is managing the situation and how the situation appears very carefully. They are moving on their own timetable, and not the US's..

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#6) On June 28, 2010 at 4:04 PM, Tastylunch (29.31) wrote:

Binve

OT: but relevent to your interests

http://seekingalpha.com/article/212107-paper-shorts-fail-to-crash-gold-price-in-june

also

In another ominous sign for the dollar, the Financial Times reported Wednesday that after two decades as net sellers of gold, foreign central banks have now become net buyers. What's more, more than half of central bank officials surveyed by UBS didn't think the dollar would be the world's reserve in 2035

from

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Why-China-wants-to-end-infernal-yuan-dollar-peg-29497-3-1.html

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#7) On June 29, 2010 at 9:46 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Tastylunch ,

Thanks for the articles man! Yep, gold is doing well seasonality-wise here. I am very interested to how it handles July.

>>What's more, more than half of central bank officials surveyed by UBS didn't think the dollar would be the world's reserve in 2035

Nice :) Can't say I am surprised. It is like the pound and the dollar. The pound didn't "die" (like a lot of people are calling for the dollar to, and I am not one of them) but it did get substantially weaker and lost reserve currrency status (which is what I am calling for).

Thanks!..

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#8) On July 01, 2010 at 1:52 AM, DarthMaul09 (29.79) wrote:

Thanks TMFSinchiruna and  binve for your thoughts.  By the way, what ever happened to the summer rally?  It feels like we may have to wait until after the mid-term elections and a divided government for confidence to return and the markets to rally again.

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