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TMF42 (93.10)

Roller Coaster

Recs

14

July 16, 2010 – Comments (10) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY

With the S&P 500 down 2.9% or so today, I found myself saying: “Geez. These big whacks seem to be happening more and more. It never used to be like this.”

 

So to entertain my curiosity I went back and looked at how frequently the S&P closed up or down at least 2%. The results are pretty staggering:

 

2006: 2 times

2007: 17 times

2008: 68 times

2009: 48 times

2010 thru today: 13 times

 

First off, congrats to all who survived ’08 and ’09 and still invest today. It has been a roller coaster to say the least.

 

Secondly, in a very imperfect and extrapolated way, this shows (at least a little bit) that volatility may be on the decline.

 

Some food for thought:

Knowing that these large moves still exist remind me that it’s a good idea to have a personal watch list, have patience and wait for your price. Sometimes Mr. Market brings the stocks you like into your buy range.

 

Bryan

TMF42

10 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 16, 2010 at 5:17 PM, chk999 (99.98) wrote:

Roller coaster of Love, say what!

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#2) On July 16, 2010 at 5:44 PM, allstarvulture (< 20) wrote:

Interesting stats, TMF42.  More telling may be intra-day swings of the 2+% magnitude.  By looking solely at change upon closing, we may be missing a substantial amount of volatility in the markets.     

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#3) On July 16, 2010 at 7:14 PM, 1315623493 wrote:

The new normal will involved substantially more volatility. Play the VIX and have fun with it.

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#4) On July 16, 2010 at 8:31 PM, portefeuille (99.75) wrote:

a figure showing daily changes of the S&P500 index.


enlarge

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#5) On July 16, 2010 at 8:42 PM, portefeuille (99.75) wrote:

a figure showing daily changes of the DAX starting on November 27, 1990.


enlarge

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#6) On July 16, 2010 at 8:49 PM, portefeuille (99.75) wrote:

#7 the last "major change" was the change of around 5.03% from the close of Xetra trading on May 6, 2010 to the close of Xetra trading on May 7, 2010. Xetra trading was closed during the "flash cash" on May 6 ...

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#7) On July 16, 2010 at 9:17 PM, portefeuille (99.75) wrote:

a figure showing daily changes of the S&P500 index starting on November 27, 1990.



enlarge

 

a figure showing daily changes of the DAX starting on November 27, 1990 (the one from comment #7 above).



enlarge

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#8) On July 16, 2010 at 9:30 PM, portefeuille (99.75) wrote:

The S&P500 index is still rather sleepy compared to the DAX. The realtive sleepiness was rather extreme in "late 2002 / early 2003" ...

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#9) On July 16, 2010 at 9:36 PM, portefeuille (99.75) wrote:

and now make some "caps" game calls.

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#10) On July 18, 2010 at 8:15 PM, TMF42 (93.10) wrote:

Ha!

 

Thanks for all the excellent charts portefeuille. Somehow I feel like you have already made some plays on VXX in your personal account. 

 

bh

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