TMFHumbleServant's Blog

How Long Until We Get There?

TMFHumbleServant — Tue, 13 Jul 2010 23:32:00 GMT

"There" is the right level of Debt to GDP. Unfortunately, we don't know what the right level is nor how long the deleveraging process will take to get us there.

The Early Warning blog takes a shot at estimating how long it will take in the post below.

http://bit.ly/bbfOqX

I don't know if 15-20 years is the right answer and quite frankly, I h...

There's a Middle Ground?

TMFHumbleServant — Tue, 13 Jul 2010 16:53:01 GMT

While extreme viewpoints are likely to sell newspapers, magazines, and ad space, perhaps the answer lies somewhere between the extremes.

http://raynoreport.com/10/07/what-if-the-economy-is-just-boring/

Hat tip: Business In...

Thinking Like This Scares Me

TMFHumbleServant — Mon, 12 Jul 2010 15:19:55 GMT

I have no idea who this advisor is, but his thinking scares me. He says he is "cautiously optimistic" but "ready to jump ship."

Here's the Tech Ticker video. http://bit.ly/bbe0Sg

If lots of people are thinking this way (I don't know if they are), then a shock to the market could send an avalanche of sellers into the market. I don't know if th...

Are We Headed Back to 1937?

TMFHumbleServant — Wed, 30 Jun 2010 07:48:50 GMT

Interesting article from the NYT.

http://nyti.ms/atdpFX

What do you think? Cut deficits or ramp up spending?

Let me hear your thoughts.

Fool on!

Dave...

How macro matters

TMFHumbleServant — Wed, 23 Jun 2010 08:19:48 GMT

Dylan Grice of Societe General penned on excellent piece on how to incorporate macro analysis (the environment around you) into your micro analysis (equity valuation).

http://bit.ly/c2UFV1

I also used to think I only needed to focus on bottoms-up analysis. Having learned some painful lessons, I decided to start rectifying that situation about 6-9 months ago. Now I gi...

Of course I know what I'm talking about!

TMFHumbleServant — Thu, 20 May 2010 13:03:43 GMT

Why say "I don't know" when I can quote a few articles and pretend I am an expert?

http://www.boingboing.net/2010/05/12/confident-dumb-peopl.html

h/t The Big Picture

I don't know.

Dave

More on the German short-selling ban

TMFHumbleServant — Wed, 19 May 2010 10:04:38 GMT

My buddy Seth Jayson and I have been having fun at the German's expense. Seth pulls out all the stops with this blog post.

http://bit.ly/9JYDqI

Enjoy and Fool on!

Dave

Humor on a day not starting well

TMFHumbleServant — Wed, 19 May 2010 07:38:19 GMT

On the German decision to ban short-selling ...

Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch summed up the mood with a note titled What's Germany going to ban next? Rainy days, harsh words, the Macarena?

I don't care who you are, that's funny!

h/t Zerohedge

Fool on!

Dave

Koo Says It's the Wrong Time for Austerity

TMFHumbleServant — Tue, 18 May 2010 21:09:35 GMT

Doesn't that throw a wrench in the $1 trillion European bailout?

Below is the video of Richard Koo's interview with Bloomberg.

If you haven't read his book "The Holy Grail of Macro Economics," I highly recommend it.

h/t Business Insider

Everyone,

What do you get when you cross me with some video capture software? My first video blog!

Click on the video below to walk through a short presentation I made outlining 3 stocks that grabbed my attention as I trolled along the bottom for ideas.

Be sure to let me know what you think of the format and stayed tuned for the in-depth research on the 3 ideas. And I guess you can make comments about the 3 companie...

I Feel It Is Time For Caution

TMFHumbleServant — Wed, 12 May 2010 12:26:29 GMT

I am 85% cash and 15% VXX (boy I wish there were a better vehicle for the VIX as I am not an options guy) right now. For me, there's just too much uncertainty to have this much optimism for stocks in general. As such, I prefer to be cautious with my capital rather than put it at risk. Here are my thoughts why:

1. The stocks I owned previously were close to fairly valued and their risk/reward seemed too skewed against me.

2. I am very wo...

Losing more respect for Stiglitz

TMFHumbleServant — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 15:39:08 GMT

Hugh Hendry is certainly condescending, but Stiglitz seems to come across as a shill, especially as he continues to call out "the speculators."

If Greece, as Stiglitz describes, does not have to be bailed out because it can service its debt payments and just needs time and market confidence to sort out its problems, then "the speculators" should not gain anything and may even take bath.

Didn't Soros get blamed f...

What to do if you're a deflationist

TMFHumbleServant — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 11:46:27 GMT

And no, the answer is not to get your head out of you-know-where and join the inflationist camp, as many inflationists have been saying.

As I have said before, I am in the deflation camp. Based on my analysis, I think debt-deflation (presentation is here http://bit.ly/arJwo3) will be the prevailing force and despite the incredible reflation efforts by Bernanke et al, deflation will prevail.

Joseph Stiglitz, the new Dick Fuld?

TMFHumbleServant — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 11:01:43 GMT

Following a link from The Business Insider, I came across a weird quote from Joseph Stiglitz on the Greek situation.

Mr Stiglitz, who is advising the Greek government, last night denied that the country would require a bail-out, and urged national authorities to intervene in markets to "teach the speculators a lesson".

The full article is here: Trust me. If you can get through some of the crap, there's lots of great info in here.

I am not a Kudlow fan, but I think this is worth watching.

1. On the impetus of bailouts in Europe

2. Cat and mouse game with Chinese over US asset purchases

3. Threat of debt-deflation

Here is a link to the video. http://bit.ly/...

Moral hazard is alive and well

TMFHumbleServant — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 13:22:32 GMT

I am listening to "Panic Switch" by Silversun Pickups as I read the headline on Yahoo! Finance that a German official has said EU leaders have agreed, in principle, to help Greece. http://tinyurl.com/yzlnmw4

So what's the connection? Moral hazard is alive and well and is a process that's not likely to stop. It can't stop. If it stops, the house of cards (the huge debt loa...

Giving GMCR the "thumb's down"

TMFHumbleServant — Tue, 19 Jan 2010 10:58:08 GMT

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters hit my >$80 price target to go short. So I gave it the "thumb's down" in CAPS.

As a review, attached is my short thesis in (hopefully) a more readable form than the original post.

GMCR Short Thesis

TMFHumbleServant's Blog

How Long Until We Get There?

There's a Middle Ground?

Thinking Like This Scares Me

Are We Headed Back to 1937?

How macro matters

Of course I know what I'm talking about!

More on the German short-selling ban

Humor on a day not starting well

Koo Says It's the Wrong Time for Austerity

I Feel It Is Time For Caution

Losing more respect for Stiglitz

What to do if you're a deflationist

Joseph Stiglitz, the new Dick Fuld?

Moral hazard is alive and well

Giving GMCR the "thumb's down"

Credit Continues to Contract