MKArch's Blog

My Master Plan to Save CAPS!

MKArch — Thu, 03 Jan 2013 13:34:47 GMT

I remember when I first joined CAPS when it was in beta phase back in 2006; I think TMF started with a handful of select subs and staff and then opened it up to the unwashed masses like me in their sub community and it was the greatest thing since sliced bread. It seemed like everybody loved it and was addicted to this new service in it's first year or so however even back then I didn't really buy into the community ratings premise...

My Pending Facebook Red Thumb

MKArch — Sun, 26 Feb 2012 12:28:46 GMT

I've done very well in CAPS so far betting on the big picture and discrepancies between common perceptions and reality. I'm looking to add some serious points red thumbing a $100B market cap Yahoo-2 in the making. Here's the scoop, they apparently did ~$3.71B in revenues in 2011 and had some sort of profit of ~$1B. At a market cap of $100B that would put their P/E at 100 and P/S at 27.

You can put my red...

Netflix Subtle Warning

MKArch — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 14:24:00 GMT

http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=8200747-6948-82288&type=sect&dcn=0001193125-11-278716

Q3-11 Domestic Streaming subs: 21.45M

It looks like Netflix CEO Reed Hastings affirming *December* guidance and apparently Whitney Tilson using this to project 30%-40% yearly growth rates are now back on track has the momos in a tizzy over their favorite play thing once again. Actual guidance for streaming sub growth for Q4 was a loss in October, flat in November and strong gains in December. I find it interesting that Hastings is apparently only affirming December which leave...

Netflix Churn Trends

MKArch — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 22:13:59 GMT

http://seekingalpha.com/article/252310-the-netflix-churn-challenge
The article above does an outstanding job of detailing what I think is a huge issue for NFLX in their near 50% annual churn rate. NFLX reports their churn on a monthly basis which provides a number that seems deceptively...

The NFLX Dilemma

MKArch — Sat, 19 Mar 2011 11:30:40 GMT

The news yesterday that NFLX is buying a tv program inspired me to post about them again. I don't just think they have a valuation problem I think their whole subscription based streaming model is unsustainable and IMHO the tv series is a desperate attempt by Hastings to try to address a fundamental flaw in their subscription model. How do you keep subs renewing over the long haul with nothing but old movies, tv reruns and when STARZ renews what...

Why NFLX is the new AOL

MKArch — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 22:09:35 GMT

Whitney Tilson might have thrown in the towel but MKArch isn't ready to. At least in CAPS anyway. Personally I don't understand how nobody noticed the *ONLY* reason Q4 didn't miss expectations and earnings decline sequentially for the second straight quarter was due to slashing their marketing expense and a mysterious plunge in their tax rate q/q. Keep marketing and the tax rate the same q/q and they earn ~$0.66 a nickel miss and down sequential...

Proof the U.S. is still the greatest economy in the world

MKArch — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 21:20:00 GMT

Pumkin Chunkin!
Where else in the world could dozens of guys who look like they came from a homeless shelter afford to build four story structures to throw a pumpkin a mile across a field some where in southern Delaware? Who said the U.S. is a country in decline?

AllStarPortfolio Entry- Lennar (LEN)

MKArch — Thu, 16 Dec 2010 18:55:20 GMT

I've finally stabilized in the 99% rank so here is my official submission for the CAPS AllStarPortfolio portfolio. While I think LEN will do well over the next couple of years it's a long term 5+ years rec.
http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=281220

CAPS Version II

MKArch — Sat, 05 Jun 2010 17:13:46 GMT

As a kind of journeyman investor I have found the CAPS competition very valuable but I'm not sure for it's original stated intent. I don't spend any time looking at the community ratings of the stocks but the competition has forced me to follow a lot more stocks than I would follow normally and I think this has been very useful to me. I also enjoy following other players to see how different strategies play out but this is what has prompted this post. The clear best strat...

How can the recession end?

MKArch — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 16:41:22 GMT

I'm sure I'm not the only one who gets depressed reading the never ending series of bad news and stats that just keep getting worse, so I started thinking about how on earth could this all end?
I grew up the son of a union carpenter and remember my dad scrounging around for what ever work was available even if it was only a few days when the inevitable downturns in the cyclical construction industry hit. I guess that experience gives me a little pers...

Has Bill Miller really gone insane?

MKArch — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 01:10:07 GMT

The famed head of Legg Mason Value Trust setting a record 15 years of beating the S&P 500 bets big on Freddie Mac largest single share holder reportedly increased his holdings in August as everyone was saying the GSE's days were numbered and he gets crushed today. What the hell was he thinking?
O.K. I'm a Value Trust holder and long time Bill Miller fan he's made a lot of controversial calls in his day and a good number have paid off handsom...

Back in the saddle again

MKArch — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 23:30:16 GMT

In my last blog about making omelets I detailed my decent from the 98-99 ranks to mediocrity as I was loading up on financials, home builders and anything related. I then proceeded straight to the basement at one point hovering somewhere in the bottom 10-20 players.
In my mind I was pretty sure I'd eventually be back in the 90's ranks but man what a ride back, from low single digits rank to 95 literally in a few days. Now I realize what comes up can also go...

Making Omelets

MKArch — Sat, 15 Sep 2007 00:21:05 GMT

It's been about a year since I started my CAPS portfolio around the initial large scale launch of the service. I remember at the time a lot of discussion on the CAPS feedback board about what a fantastic tool this community ratings system would be. As a bit of a skeptic I figured it would be fun but I was not convinced about the community ratings benefits.
A year later and I have some thoughts on how CAPS has benefited me as an inv...

My Stake in the ground

MKArch — Tue, 05 Dec 2006 11:11:28 GMT

Ok you have to start somewhere so here I am with my first blog. I have been a big fan of the man they call Stan or TMFPlatoish and his outstanding write ups on hidden gems. Stan has mentioned that he does this as a way of keeping track of his thoughts on the companies he is interested in and I will be using my blog here to do the same.
I have been learning a lot about how to value stocks since I have subscribed to Hidden Gems and now feel like I have some r...