ElCid16's Blog

One of the best-run shipping companies is looking incredibly bullish

ElCid16 — Thu, 16 May 2013 16:18:18 GMT

Yes, here is another blogger claiming that it's time to jump into DSX. Cool story, Hansel. Right? Well, whatever.

It looks like Diana Shipping (DSX) is just finishing the mother of all cup and handle patterns. It is one of the prettiest looking charts I think I've ever seen. There was strong weekly volume in early 2012 during the run up to the beginning of the cup formation. ...

My largest RL holding

ElCid16 — Thu, 16 May 2013 11:18:51 GMT

My current largest RL holding is VGT. I originally took an initial stake in it over a year ago, but over the past 6 months I've decided to stop trying to pick tech winners, and have transitioned out of individual tech stocks and into the VGT. My only remaining tech position outside of the VGT is a small stake in EMC.

I like VGT for several reasons:

It's a Vanguar...

"There is zero correlation between the Fed printing and the money supply. Deal with it."

ElCid16 — Mon, 13 May 2013 08:29:07 GMT

http://markdow.tumblr.com

"There is zero correlation between the Fed printing and the money supply. If you don’t believe this, you owe it to yourself to study up on monetary policy until you do."

"From 1981 to 2006 total credit assets held by US financial institutions grew by...

AAPL's gross margins

ElCid16 — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 16:40:34 GMT

In 2012, Apple's gross margins stood at 43.9%. 43.9%! This isn't the first time that Apple's gross margins have been this high, though...

Apple had a year of nearly 44% gross margins back in 1992. But the annual gross margins in the subsequent 4 years, starting in 1993: 34.2%, 25.5%, 25.8%, and 9.8%.

What's that thought behind the mean reversion of pr...

Remember when BP was a conviction buy due to Macondo incident panic selling?

ElCid16 — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 15:29:47 GMT

Even if you were one of the few to snag shares at $28, the appreciation-to-date would now be roughly 46%. Over that same timeframe, the SPY has appreciated roughly the same amount, 46%. XOM has appreciated about 47% and CVX has appreciated about 67%.

Just thought this was interesting...

A quick look at KORS and LULU

ElCid16 — Thu, 21 Mar 2013 15:34:30 GMT

After slight pullbacks in KORS and LULU, I decided to take a quick look at the fundamentals of both. From a valuation perspective, both companies seem to be pretty similar in regards to PE, ROA, ROE, Gross Margins, Op Margins, net cash, Market Cap. KORS mostly beats out LULU in these metrics - maybe by a few percentage points or two - but for the most part they are similar. One metric, however, is vastly different: comparable s...

4 Small Caps with huge cash piles and ~3% dividend yields

ElCid16 — Tue, 19 Mar 2013 23:38:52 GMT

As stock valuations become increasingly richer, I've been trying to look under some rocks to see if I can find any bargains by shifting my focus to more small and micro-cap stocks. (I’ll let the rest of the investment community bang their heads against the wall as to why Apple isn’t $600/share.) I've found a few small cap stocks that appear to be interesting, but my due diligence stops after about 15 minutes per company, possibly ren...

Short Dunkin'

ElCid16 — Thu, 14 Mar 2013 12:10:10 GMT

https://twitter.com/darrenrovell/status/312232888546512896

And go long Krispy Kreme.

Gold Miner Update...

ElCid16 — Tue, 19 Feb 2013 15:25:06 GMT

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2013/02/19/gold-miner-update-yes-they-still-suck/

Josh Brown

"In November of 2011 I came out extremely bearishly on the gold miners, a sector that I believe to be rife with some of the worst publicly trade...

5-Star Stocks Poised to Never Be Adjusted for Special Dividends

ElCid16 — Wed, 23 Jan 2013 14:30:49 GMT

CATO

Start Price Adjustment for Special Dividends

ElCid16 — Tue, 15 Jan 2013 14:44:36 GMT

I started a green thumb on CATO on Nov. 2, 2012, with a start price of $28.40. Since that time, CATO has paid out $2 in special dividends. Shouldn't my start price be adjusted for these special dividends?

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/start-price-adjustment-for/772641

Bloomberg reports that representatives from Royce & Associates and Roth Capital think Skullcandy makes an attractive takeover target since its 66% market cap loss in the past year and a half. As a TRLG shareholder, I'm fairly skeptical of this type of takeover/buyout news, but nonetheless SKUL seems way too cheap right now. FCF in 2011 was $20+MM, and could come close to $30MM for 2012. I tend to like (virtually) debt free ...

Monster's CEO addresses the caffeine issue

ElCid16 — Thu, 08 Nov 2012 10:51:24 GMT

"I’m sure that you’re aware that our company as a result of certain litigation, regulatory requests and media reports, has been the subject of discussion recently. I want to take this opportunity to briefly address this. First and foremost, we reiterate that our products are safe. More than 8 billion cans of Monster Energy drinks have been sold and safely consumed in the United States and around the world since 2002. Additionally, 10 of bil...

Start Price Adjustment for Special Dividends

ElCid16 — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 10:23:06 GMT

I started a IQNT green thumb in Oct, 2011. I think it was trading under TNDM at the time. My start price is $10.61, which is approximately the price that the stock was trading at in Oct. of 2011. Shouldn't picks be adjusted for the $3 special dividend that was paid out on Oct. 31? Or has the adjustment simply not been made, yet?

This looks pretty interesting.

ElCid16 — Mon, 01 Oct 2012 23:05:46 GMT

http://windows.microsoft.com/en-US/windows-8/release-preview

What is HPQ management indirectly telling us via share buybacks?

ElCid16 — Sun, 09 Sep 2012 12:15:45 GMT

Admittedly, I've never spent any time working in the financial departments of any Fortune 500 company, but what HPQ has done over the past 3 years, and is currently doing, doesn't seem like it makes a whole lot of sense.

In 2010, the company took out $6B in debt to repurchase $8.5B in shares. For most of FY 2010, shares were trading around $45.

In 2011, the company too...

Nike isn't a sell, let alone a "Strong Sell"

ElCid16 — Tue, 21 Aug 2012 22:50:35 GMT

I hadn't been following NKE until I came across Eddy Elfenbein's latest article titled "Nike is a Strong Sell."

http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2012/08/nike-is-a-strong-sell.html

After about 30 seconds of reading,...

Adding to my TRLG stake tomorrow morning

ElCid16 — Tue, 31 Jul 2012 22:35:26 GMT

TRLG is getting rocked in AH. By no means was the report bad (same store sales growth, US direct sales growth, total sales growth, EPS growth), but they "missed" on quarterly revenue by about 2% and are projecting revenues to "only" grow in 2012 by about 8.4% vs the estimated 11.5%.

Using $23/share (AH price):

"Cash adjusted" P/FCF ...

SVU

ElCid16 — Thu, 12 Jul 2012 11:35:59 GMT

SVU is getting wrecked this morning (in case you didn't notice), and possibly, rightfully so. I'm gonna think out loud. If you're looking for a clear, concise blog on SVU, I'd recommend venturing elsewhere.

The positives:

Management claims that they will be able to pay down another $500MM in debt this year, which would be in-line with last year's debt reduction a...

PLCM is cheap - but it's for a reason.

ElCid16 — Fri, 04 May 2012 13:11:14 GMT

Polycom is trading for about $2.2B, has $565MM in cash, and no debt. The company generated $230MM in FCF last year ($40MM of which was working capital changes, though) and revenue growth was pretty substantial in the first quarter of this year. Profits dropped from the same quarter a year ago, and earnings and FCF are currently on track to be substantially lower this year.

From a business strategy ...