fransgeraedts's Blog

Teaparty -look who is paying!

fransgeraedts — Sun, 29 Aug 2010 16:52:56 GMT

This frightens me.

http://tiny.cc/iphxu and http://tiny.cc/8i5p0

fransgeraedts

floridabuilder

fransgeraedts — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 00:19:51 GMT

Attention! grin... All hands on deck!

I just noticed that Floridabuilder has turned his last builderstocks from red to green. As far as i can see he has no longer any builder redthumbed.

As he is our go to go guy when it comes to the developments in that sector i think that that is highly significant.

Any suggestions on what it means?

fransgeraedts

Where in the US? a question for help

fransgeraedts — Wed, 25 Aug 2010 09:12:06 GMT

It is possible that i would relocate to the US in two or three years time. I would have to travel all over the states. Therefore good airline connections would be vital. I can imagine living in a city or near it.(if the airfield is not farther then an hour.) Also important is that there is a good university in the city. Any suggestions?

frans geraedts

Join the unions!

fransgeraedts — Mon, 23 Aug 2010 13:05:55 GMT

Collective anger and its targets: one of the most important subjects when studying a society.

It has me flummoxed and flabbergasted. In other words I do not understand it.

The labor unions seem to be hated from all sides in the US.

What is it they do wrong? The public anger seems to be provoked by the fact that union-members earn more than non-union workers. Yeahhhh ..so what?

a flashpoint for the debate about globalization and its consequences for the US has of course been the transfer of manufacturing jobs from the US to China. I believe many of those that comment on that here in Caps are to pessimistic about the future of the US-manufacturing and the effects of globalization on the US economy. See my earlier posts.

One of the reasons for my more optimistic view are the coming developments in China. I expect both an accelaratio...

Double dip, state of play 10

fransgeraedts — Fri, 20 Aug 2010 09:29:03 GMT

The chance of a double dip of the world-economy (creating a recession in many national economies and a growth-recession in others) has risen substantially. I am positioning my Caps picks accordingly.

(Repeat warning: I do not pick individual stocks. I make sector bets up or down based on a macro-economical analysis combined with a "technical" analysis of the financial markets.)

Deep background: The globalisation of capitalism ...

Stronger then you think; a nuanced view of american manufacturing; unwarranted pessimism 2

fransgeraedts — Mon, 16 Aug 2010 08:45:08 GMT

There is an interesting inquiry going on in caps at the moment about the weaknesses and the strengths of the american economy in general and american manufacture in particular. Participating are Donnerv, Lordrobot, Freemarkets, Dwot, ChrisGraley, russiangambit, leohaas, tomlongrpv and many others. Read my take on the situation and the comments that it provoked in my earlier post Unwarranted Pessimism.

The following articl...

Mismanaging a golden age; the global structural output gap; the long view (5)

fransgeraedts — Sun, 15 Aug 2010 09:38:09 GMT

I want to introduce a different use of the word output gap. (Its reappearance in the economic debate is a sign of a renaissance of keynesianism. I applaud that renaissance. I would however wish for a renaissance that is also a reworking. We need a neo-keynesian approach just as we needed a neo-classical one. And we need a general theory of economics that can put both in context.) I want to call it : the global structural output gap. What i am aiming for is a thought experiment....

Financial Disarmament

fransgeraedts — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 13:25:48 GMT

Should we not simply prohibit the use of the more complex derivatives?Should we not simply prohibit trading techniques like HFT? Should we not simply prohibit every institution that manages other peoples money to trade on the financial markets for its own account? Should we not simply prohibit the use of commodity futures except for producers and users? Should we not simply prohibit the trading of any financial instrument outside regulated markets? Should we not simply prohibit...

Unwarranted pessimism

fransgeraedts — Tue, 10 Aug 2010 11:53:25 GMT

Erosion of trust (specially in the political institutions) and unwarranted pessimism (specially with regard to the strength of the economies) haunt the western societies. That is dangerous. They could turn into selffulfilling prophecies.

Donnerv wrote a fine post under the title Goodbye America; it was a great ride. In the post he expresses his pessimism over the future of the US. He believes that globalization (and t...

Unwarranted pessimism

fransgeraedts — Tue, 10 Aug 2010 11:49:38 GMT

Donnerv wrote a fine post under the title Goodbye America; it was a great ride. In the post he expresses his pessimism over the future of the US. He believes that globalization (and t...

what is wrong with the world economy

fransgeraedts — Tue, 10 Aug 2010 05:00:07 GMT

Profits are to high; taxes and wages are to low.

Read an interesting piece in the NWT. Long term Republican denouncing GOP economic politics of the last 40 years. http://starturl.com/bsgxy I do not agree with (all of) his analysis but i do think his is a very interesting contribution to the debate. Allow me to quote the following:

"By fiscal year 2009, the t...

Irrational Exuberance -how to prevent large scale speculation; a challenge to the community

fransgeraedts — Mon, 09 Aug 2010 11:31:52 GMT

Lets begin with a quote from the ever popular Alan Greenspan.

Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets. We can see that in the inverse relationship exhibited by price/earnings ratios and the rate of inflation in the past. But how do we know when irrational exuberance...

Investing in trust

fransgeraedts — Fri, 06 Aug 2010 11:07:40 GMT

One of the biggest problems of our time is the erosion of trust within western societies. That erosion takes place all over but the most important is probably the loss of trust in politics.

ChrisGraley wrote a post here on Caps that demonstrated a deep distrust in politics. He is not of course the only one to do so. It is bon ton to do so here. There is, so it seems, something like a consensus that says that our political s...

What is wrong with the world economy

fransgeraedts — Fri, 06 Aug 2010 06:53:42 GMT

Profits are to high; taxes and wages are to low.
fransgeraedts

"Like IBM understanding that the mainframe terminal is a PC-to-be; innovating Caps 8

fransgeraedts — Thu, 05 Aug 2010 06:12:45 GMT

Donner was getting angry about bloggers that are plugging investmentletters. I understand Donner and the pluggers but think the real problem lies elsewhere. The Motley Fool underestimates Caps hugely.
I repost here my answer to Donner.

1. I think that it is a very good sign that people are beginning to advertise their "wares" on caps in this way. It shows that there is a growing awareness of Ca...

Mismanaging a golden age; the long view (4); globalisation.

fransgeraedts — Tue, 03 Aug 2010 07:38:16 GMT

Three values give direction to our pursuits; freedom, wealth, happiness. They are not coincidental. They are the necessary outcome of a historical learning proces.A proces that is with us from our very beginnings, from the first word unward. But only recently, in the last fivehundred years, the inquiry into action has begun in earnest. Those three corevalues are the necessary result of that pragmatic investigation. Freedom turns behavior into action; wealth gives that act...

Mismanaging a golden age; the long view (1,2,3)

fransgeraedts — Wed, 21 Jul 2010 11:23:49 GMT

I repost here three posts from (almost) a year ago -with a view of continuing the argument. It is summer again, the only period of the year i can make the time to blog.

Capitalism rocks!!!; the long view(1)

August 16, 2009 –
Humanity learns. (Do not imagine that learning as that of a chi...

On BravoBevo; deep admiration and deep puzzlement

fransgeraedts — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 15:59:39 GMT

One of the more fruitfull undertakings on Caps for me has been to try to understand the strategy of other participants. I have studied for example cipostripes; floridabuilder; portefeuille; ultralong; zzlangerhans. And I have of course tried to understand BravoBevo.
Let me begin with saying that i really admire what BravoBevo has done. he is without a doubt the best Capsplayer -by far. Moreover he has shown that he has found a strategy that creat...

on global warming a column by johan hari (the independent)

fransgeraedts — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 02:01:22 GMT

Johann Hari: How I wish that the global warming deniers were right

Are you prepared to take a 50-50 gamble on the habitability of the planet?

Friday, 4 December 2009
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