TheBoodist's Blog

Earnings Expectations

TheBoodist — Thu, 23 Aug 2012 12:09:19 GMT

Trading is going pretty well, and I actually feel like making a showing in this game. The more I try to do well at trading, the better I try at this game, so my picks here often reflect actual trades I'm making - as far as moving into or out of a stock.

I'd know for a long time about the run-up before earnings that often occurs, especially in strong stocks that have high expectations. Well, I...

Very Interesting Indeed

TheBoodist — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:28:14 GMT

I have begun watching the markets again. I cleaned up my CAPS picks and added some new shorts, hoping to improve my score. I didn't have any money to trade in the last year, or a clue. But now I find trading with even miniscule amounts of money can be fun. I have a big hunch that things are about to take off in one direction or another. The insane BUBBLE in the price of OIL is ready to POP, and that will help stock prices A LOT. I just read in the ...

CROX SUX?

TheBoodist — Wed, 17 Oct 2007 14:28:11 GMT

I have no time (nor money) to follow the market these days, so it's pretty much stick with yer winners and cut yer losers, so that's what I have done. I don't even have time to screen, even though I am pretty happy with the screening criteria I have settled on during the year, and looking forward to picking many more short positions based on a screen.

Had to 'cover' the CROX short. It was an aggressive position and too early no doubt ($90 maybe?) But...

Update the CAPS rules

TheBoodist — Tue, 11 Sep 2007 13:48:52 GMT

The top players, it has been duly noted, have more than the average number of underperform (red) picks. Well guess what, in the real world, you could never short those stocks because brokers will not margin any stock with a price less than $5. If CAPS made the rules to follow, those top players rankings would fall, and mine would rise :-) Time to upgrade the CAPS rules ...

Good news

TheBoodist — Fri, 31 Aug 2007 12:24:51 GMT

Economic news this week has been very good. Will that boost stocks back to where they were in early July? Of course not. Some uncertainty will be floating around for a while. That's why I am dumping a few stocks that although they have excellent fundamentals, I don't like their chart patterns.

Not a good day

TheBoodist — Tue, 28 Aug 2007 15:59:24 GMT

Almost every stock I am tracking is down today, and down significantly. Its quite something to scan down a list of more than 100 stocks with top notch fundamentals and see mostly red.

Stocks that were like rocket fuel before are sinking like lead. CF, down 7%. HOC, down than 5%. LPHI, down 6%. The only bright spots are OPLK, which is up a little over 1%, and AMSWA, which I am currently holding, is up 3% - which just brin...

Why I Dumped Google

TheBoodist — Fri, 24 Aug 2007 12:06:39 GMT

Gut feeling. Ha, how's that for a reason? Seriously, I just don't see this having a lot of upside in the short term. Google has been trying for too long to do everything (when is the GoogleBox video game release?) when the truth is that the bigger the company, the less nimble they are. I wouldn't short it at this time, I just don't think it will do a lot for my CAPS score.

Lookout below

TheBoodist — Mon, 20 Aug 2007 14:46:39 GMT

Oh darn, my rating plunged below zero! I have shifted the portfolio some, adding new stocks and chucking a few that should have never been included - they were included based only on chart strength, not chart and fundamentals...

Now, the good news: I think I have learned (from the top CAPS players) that its not enough to bet on a bunch of strong stocks to go up over time, one needs to short weaker stocks for when the market changes direction....

Update

TheBoodist — Tue, 10 Jul 2007 23:34:34 GMT

Landed at #75 today, out of more than 32000 players. Not bad, wonder how high I can go. Accuracy of 65% doen't seem that high. Maybe I don't have enough picks... I haven't studied closely how the scoring /ranking works.

More books: After hearing Taleb discussing his new book on NPR, I decided to start with Fooled by Randomness, a book I had passed over thinking it had little practical application. True, it is for more of ...

Reading List

TheBoodist — Thu, 31 May 2007 21:32:24 GMT

This is my library of investing books. Most of them are getting a second, third and fourth reading.

Background Economics:

Reinventing the Bazaar, A Natural History of Markets by John McMillan

The Economic Naturalist by Robert H. Frank

The Undercover Economist by ...

Screening criteria

TheBoodist — Sat, 26 May 2007 21:24:37 GMT

These are the screening criteria I generally use to find companies whose stock price has a good probability of going higher.

- Under $1B market cap.
- Price under $18 per share
- Profit margin greater than zero
- Increasingly higher quarterly earnings
- Positive chart base
- Short positions less than 6% of float
Some kinds of stocks don't interest me at all , no matter what the company is. Here are the groupings in which I track stocks:

Services

Software

Computer Peripherals - very hot right now.

Medical

Electronics

Metals

Oil and Gas

and trying to find the time to put together a group of China stocks

Sedctors I follow

TheBoodist — Fri, 09 Feb 2007 17:10:02 GMT

Some kinds of stocks don't interest me at all , no matter what the company is. Here are the groupings in which I track stocks: