Updated Thoughts on United Health Group, Inc.

TheDumbMoney — Sat, 04 May 2013 18:40:05 GMT

Evaluating a long-time holding, I think UNH is a big buy at under $54/share, and a sell in the $80s. It is presently at around $58/share. It's a powerful company that generates $6 billion in free cash flow anually, reduces its share count regularly, and has big advantages as a large company in a highly-regulated industry. Here is my full

Two or three years ago, when this site was becoming a festival of hyper-confident, hyper-certain gold bugs, I made a few bets with them. I bet Christopher Barker that PM stock would outperform gold. And I bet frankydon'tfailme in 2011 that Silver would see $22 before it ever saw $40 again (if it ever did).

I Have Updated my Fundamental Analysis on Microsoft

TheDumbMoney — Wed, 20 Mar 2013 20:49:11 GMT

Basically, I still think it's buy. See here. In fact I think it's even more undervalued than when I did my analysis a year ago.

Thanks!

TheDumbMoney — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 15:25:03 GMT

FYI, the ABT (Abbot Laboratories) calls in CAPS are now fixed. They now accurately reflect they performance of those who had made calls prior to the AbbVie spinoff.

Philip Morris International Crushing Gold

TheDumbMoney — Wed, 13 Mar 2013 12:52:07 GMT

So for a number of years I have tangled with TMFSincheruna (Christopher Barker) about the merits of gold, in a variety of respects. I have been a longstanding believer in equities, and that the Fed's actions are not "unprecedented" but are a 1940's redux, that the world will not end, etc. At one point in early 2010 I told him PM would beat gold. Since at least once in the intervening time period Mr. Barker has reminde...

May Close CAPS Accounts

TheDumbMoney — Wed, 06 Feb 2013 11:27:29 GMT

I am considering closing out my CAPS accounts. It is simply unacceptable that for a month fool.com has been unable to fix the glitch that took away CAPS points for anybody who had an ABT pick open on the split date. How many other spinoffs have been scwered up? What is the point? All of my picks in this account are my real life stocks, with comments indicating wh...

Abbott Labs (ABT) Chart/CAPS Still Not Fixed

TheDumbMoney — Wed, 23 Jan 2013 12:54:53 GMT

On January 9th I posted that the ABT historical chart does not accurately reflect the price of the ABT component of the company that was ABT and is now ABT and ABBV. Rather, on the split date, it shows an approximately 50% drop in "ABT" as if old ABT and new ABT are one and the same, rather than new ABT constituting a...

CAPS Jumps the Shark?

TheDumbMoney — Wed, 09 Jan 2013 12:49:47 GMT

So CAPS apparently did not properly take into account the split of ABT into ABBV and ABT (the Abbot Labs spin-off of AbbVie). Really? Really? When is THAT going to be fixed?

Back to the Future with Walmart

TheDumbMoney — Mon, 03 Dec 2012 16:40:45 GMT

Here is the link to the second post I ever did on Fool.com (May 2010), which was about Wallmart:

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/is-walmart-wildly-undervalued/384871

It's one of the longest analyses ...

Added to Intel Position in IRA

TheDumbMoney — Tue, 02 Oct 2012 18:12:35 GMT

I added to Intel a few days ago fairly significantly in my IRA. The add is listed in my comments in that position. As always, I note that my CAPS picks are my only individual stock holdings, and include all of my holdings. Checks are my largest positions currently (sometimes as a result of appreciation, note). When I sell out completely I remove the position from CAPS.

My reasons for li...

Sold Transocean

TheDumbMoney — Wed, 05 Sep 2012 13:11:30 GMT

I know it's a downday, but wth, I'm just not feeling Transocean anymore. I made back some loot by averaging down at $39 ish.

I sold 25 shares at $46.76/share ($4.95 commission), and sold 6 shares (in another account) at $46.75/share ($6.96 commission including SEC fee). Should have done this awhile ago, see my May 2012 Seeking Alpha post, here, for more explanation:

So I'm working today (ugh), and for weeks since a computer upgrade at work, Pandora won't load. So a few hours ago today I finally downloaded Spotify -- which download worked fine despite my firm's firewalls, through which Pandora won't even run. And it's great. It looks more like iTunes, the suggestions are great, the social aspect is great, the way that you can select your owns songs and make playlists is great, the fact...

100 in 100 Charm Question

TheDumbMoney — Fri, 24 Aug 2012 15:36:23 GMT

Hi, so I have a question. I tried to create a blog account on my alter ego player, TheDumbMoney2, so I could ask it, but apparently the Fool only allows one blog account per user, so whatever.

On that account I am actually trying to do well at CAPS. I'm in the 98s currently on that account as a ranking, though who knows what the future holds. Anyway, I think I have been playing CAPS in...

Adding Intel Shares

TheDumbMoney — Wed, 22 Aug 2012 12:58:23 GMT

As noted in my pitch log, I added 28 more shares of Intel in my IRA. The stock is still down over 10% from its high for the year, holds a bunch of cash, sports a 3.3%-ish dividend yield, and sports a sub-11 P/E and sub-10 forward P/E, reasonable PEG ratio, is making gobs of free cash flow, and is striving to meet challenges relating to the mobile revolution. It's not a home run, but this is a no-brainer hold for me for the next decad...

July 2012 Theses Review(s)

TheDumbMoney — Mon, 09 Jul 2012 14:17:42 GMT

Just giving myself a sanity check, writing down my continued theses, and as any explanation to anyone viewing my profile:

I seek stocks that are: 1) presently undervalued; 2) exhibit underlying business advantages which mean I can hold them a long time and accrue capital gains without being taxed or paying fees. I am more likly to violate the second rule for stocks in my IRA, since I don't pay ...

Sold Out Honda and Hewlett Packard Yesterday

TheDumbMoney — Wed, 16 May 2012 12:46:30 GMT

I sold out of these two stocks yesterday. I'm currently holding the cash. The CAPS picks are now closed.

With Honda (HMC) I went back and reminded myself why I bought it. I bought it during the financial crisis at something like $18/share. I should have sold it when it got to $40. Instead I forgot why I bought it and started treating it as a longterm hold, simply because I ...

Added to Berkshire Hathaway Holding

TheDumbMoney — Fri, 11 May 2012 12:31:30 GMT

As we all know Buffett and Munger think Berkshire is undervalued even at 1.1ish times book value. As anyone following me knows, I have owned it for awhile, and bought last summer/fall in the low 70s and even some in the high 60s, which was awesome. I rarely add to a position before earnings, and this is no exception. But after hearing Buffett's latest, I'm willing to add more, especially since his guys Coombs and Wechsler have ...

Sysco Corporation Should Not Have Five Stars on CAPS

TheDumbMoney — Mon, 23 Apr 2012 10:07:20 GMT

As best I can tell, Sysco corporation has outperformed the S&P only two years in the last six (2006 and 2008), including this year so far, and is cumulatively massively underperforming both the S&P price index and the S&P total return index. Yet it continues to be a recommendation of many smart people, and in fact has a 5-star rating here on CAPS. Morningstar gives it a 4-star buy rating. And not only has it no...

I'm Not An Options Trader, But Apple Seems Like a Straddle Candidate

TheDumbMoney — Sat, 21 Apr 2012 11:52:29 GMT

I'm just sayin'.

Going into Apple earnings on Tuesday, it seems like a long straddle is a pretty good trade. There is a high degree of uncertainty about Apple earnings. They are likely to drop versus the fourth quarter of 2011 (which is the first quarter of Apple fiscal 2012), because that was a spectacular outlier quarter after release of iPhone 4s and because of holiday season.&#...

Selling Altria (MO), Putting the Money in Philip Morris International (PM)

TheDumbMoney — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 10:57:25 GMT

In keeping with my recent analysis of PM and my recent analysis of MO, I am selling my MO stock and putting it in PM. One of the bad habi...

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