bellard's Blog

Commercial Metals earnings, and domestic steel market updates

bellard — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 11:40:45 GMT

Last month I wrote about the pricing power many US based steel firms had. I also posted how the weak US dollar, and low inventory levels would lead to above average returns for my steel focus list. Here are those steel firms and their price increases since May 2:

&#...

Available consumer dollars, and the flintstones

bellard — Tue, 27 May 2008 11:30:16 GMT

Available consumer dollars - ACD, is a measure of discretionary consumer spending.There are many moving parts, but almost all of these variables are moving in a negative direction when it comes to consumer spending, and more importantly, consumer discretionary spending. We will be analyzing the typical US family, the Flintstones.

I will be focusing on available consumer dollars - ACD. Lower take home wages, plus the increases in all ...

ANWR, Peak oil theory, and oil economics - were are we going?

bellard — Fri, 16 May 2008 12:17:15 GMT

I just listened to the 100th brain-stem politician screaming about opening up ANWR for oil development. As an economist, and an energy user, this is really starting to annoy me. These same fear mongers also claim that the US economy will crash due to the high cost of hydrocarbons. Actually I believe the opposite is true. The US oil fueled economy is old and tired IMHO. A new vibrant US economy is coming if we start real investing in all the oil alternativ...

Steel Stocks: Update from latest earnings reports

bellard — Thu, 01 May 2008 10:46:21 GMT

As the US economy continues to slow, the domestic steel industry continues to accelerate. My article on March 9th, gave investors a quick industry overview, and my steel stock focus list. After listening to the steel firms conference calls, and reading their earnings reports, I have changed my focus list, The two foreign co...

American Eagle's new flight pattern?

bellard — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 13:29:32 GMT

Over the past 10 years, the eagle has soared into the stratosphere. From about 1 dollar a share in 1997, American Eagle's stock price rose to over 30 in 2007. Like poor Icarus, who flew too close to the sun and ended up in the Icarian Sea, American Eagle's wings are now damaged, and its new flight pattern is unfortunately down.

American Eagle's new same stores sales were just released. Down 12% from last March. Total sales were down 2%. Ou...

Why we need to pollute the energy industry with taxes

bellard — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 11:13:24 GMT

Before I get blogged out of existence with hate posts, Please allow me to continue. First let me state - I use energy! I drive a diesel car, I use electricity to heat and cool my house, I eat food, I invest in oil, gas, and coal stocks - I like energy.

Energy companies are not good, bad or ugly. Attaching human adjectives to an equity is just plain dumb. Peabody Energy Corp, and ConocoPhillips are no better or worst than Apple, or Goggle. ...

Las Vegas housing market checkup

bellard — Sun, 23 Mar 2008 11:34:33 GMT

After spending almost a week in one of the most remote places in the US - The hot springs of saline valley in Death Valley national park, I drove back to Las Vegas for my spring housing market checkup. The change from the beauty of Death Valley, to the fast paced, no road rules of Vegas is not for the timid.

My first stop was North Las Vegas near the 215 beltway and I-15. I visited several subdivisions of public home-builders SPF, KBH, and...

Ride the waves of change - Chesapeake Energy

bellard — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 16:16:14 GMT

A tidal wave is coming to the US, and Chesapeake Energy will be surfing like a pro! This change I am talking about is the use of natural gas in the US. Many economic experts agree that pollution taxes, or a cap and trade pollution system will become reality in the next few years. I have written in February about my vision of the future of natural...

Invest with some weight - Steel stocks

bellard — Mon, 10 Mar 2008 10:15:47 GMT

I like a company that produces a tangible product, something that if you drop it on your foot, it hurts: rebar, structural pipe, flat rolled, tubular products, precision tube, stainless steel, tool steel, ingots, blooms, billets, bars, structural beams, etc...All these products could put a dent in your foot, but might also put some cash in your pocket.

Steel is basically iron ore with carbon used as a hardening agent. Other alloying agents...

Bellard's top 20 cash flow stocks for 2008

bellard — Tue, 26 Feb 2008 09:31:00 GMT

I have finally finished my top 100 cash flow stock list. I will show the top 20 here. As I discussed in my first post, After this list is screened, compiled, researched, etc. the real work has just started. Each equity on this list must be researched in detail. These are some of the steps I take:

1) Read the past 2 years quarterly results and 10-Q's.
2) Listen to all the investor presentations, and conference calls, veri...

Fear, greed and loathing in Las Vegas - The US economy; then and now.

bellard — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 11:04:40 GMT

I have always been very interested in economics. The interpretation of the behavior of millions of individuals all making decisions simultaneously is fascinating. Macroeconomics is incredibly complex, but if we can see some trends, above average returns are possible. First I will present my interpretation of how we have arrived at today's economy.

Las Vegas - circa 2004

I visit LV many time every year...

Natural Gas; the alternative clean energy for the next five years.

bellard — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 09:48:35 GMT

Now is the time to invest in Natural gas. As an economist, I have been involved in alternative energy issues for the past 4 years. Long term, the US, and ROW(rest of world) need to move away from digging in the dirt(DITD) to produce energy. These non-DITD alternatives would be:

1)Wind power
2)Solar power
3)Geothermal
4)Bio-fuels

While I am very ...

My first CAPS post - My use of the capital asset pricing model for the valuation of equities.

bellard — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 09:50:50 GMT

This is my first CAPS posting. I have been posting on Yahoo for 10 years, and I must be honest - I have become quite upset with the overall quality of other Yahoo posters. The Yahoo message boards is now just a free for all of nasty, illiterate, bashers, or dumb permabulls, or spammers...I started my CAPs about a week ago, and have blogged a bit. I am impressed with the overall quality of CAPS, and fool. If anyone out there can give me advice on CAPS game, that would be a...