JaysRage's Blog

The death of Netflix

JaysRage — Tue, 19 Feb 2013 14:06:12 GMT

The death of Netflix as a stand-alone company is inevitable. I don't even know exactly how it will happen, but I know it will happen.

What does Netflix have going for it?

1) Huge subscriber base with room to grow internationally

2) Top-tier exclusive content (Disney!)

3) First-mover ...

My take on the second debate

JaysRage — Wed, 17 Oct 2012 10:01:15 GMT

For my thoughts on the first debate and voting history, please refer to my previous blog.

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/my-take-on-the-debate/765610

Like I went into the last debate wanting to hear more about Romney's tax plan, I went into this debate wanting...

My take on the debate

JaysRage — Thu, 04 Oct 2012 15:13:45 GMT

For the record, I have voted Republican in every election since I came to voting age 19 years ago. I had been considering moving in a different direction due to uncertainty about the qualifications and plans of the current Republican candidate. I went into last night's debate wanting to hear Governor Romney explain his tax proposal, because I had heard so many different takes on it that I really didn't understand what he was trying...

My thoughts on Facebook

JaysRage — Wed, 06 Jun 2012 11:26:49 GMT

It seems that everyone and anyone has an opinion on Facebook stock. I'm going to lay my thoughts on the table too. This might be the most polarizing stock that I have ever seen. I think part of it is that Facebook has been a part of major social change and is a polarizing company that people have strong opinions about, regardless of the stock.

Strengths of...

2011 -- A learning year in review

JaysRage — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 09:36:30 GMT

Failure is a painful teacher......the sting of the correction bites hard, but its lessons are often learned the best. I have several years of investing under my belt. I've seen quite a few things. I have a process and discipline and accountability in my investing processes. I've never seen anything like what happened in Chinese small-caps in 2011. I to...

I don't know why I go to extremes

JaysRage — Tue, 15 Nov 2011 14:16:00 GMT

My two favorite technology companies are polar opposites in many ways. These two tech companies are behemoths Apple and Amazon.

Apple -- Ipod, Ipad, Iphone, Macs, Digital Media and Content

Amazon -- E-Retailer, Digital Media and Content, technology infrastructure, Kindle

Apple

As I continue to watch the world around me and see how the majority of people operate, it never ceases to amaze me how people operate. As I pull into McDonalds to get some breakfast, the drive-thru is 10 deep, so I pull into a slot, go inside, order, get my food, and I'm on my way before 3 or 4 cars can make it through the drive-thru. I'm cool with that deal. But what I've also realized...

Odds of recession.....I put it at 50/50 or better

JaysRage — Fri, 19 Aug 2011 17:36:03 GMT

I'd say that the odds that we are already in a recession or will be entering into a recession in the next 3 months at 50/50 or higher. My reasoning is the following.

1) Mainstream Economists -- Mainstream high-level economists have increased chances of a recession to 25%. Something that you need to know about mainstream ...

Good advice from a Founding Father

JaysRage — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 16:38:32 GMT

0 for 6. Here is what Washington advised us in his farewell speach.

Extolls the benefits of the federal government. "The unity of government...is a main pillar in the edifice of your real independence...of your tranquility at home, your peace abroad; of your safety; of your prosperity; of that very liberty which you so highly pr...

The reactions were predictable

JaysRage — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 15:54:08 GMT

The Republicans blamed the Democrats.

The Democrats blamed the Repulicans.

Both sides attacked the messenger (along with Buffet), and claimed that they are clearly wrong and that there is no real problem. The S&P has it wrong.

This is uncharted territory. The U.S. has never lost it's AAA rating...

Economic This and Thats

JaysRage — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:56:56 GMT

I just decided that I wanted to get a few thoughts down regarding a few different things in the economy.

Aluminum

One of the first interesting notes that I have is that Aluminum has some very strong demand going on right now. This was dubbed as "international demand", but there are a few non-cy...

Some thoughts on LinkedIn

JaysRage — Wed, 01 Jun 2011 10:31:25 GMT

In the world of Social Networking, LinkedIn represents the third most recognized brand. This brand carries with it a unique twist from #1 Facebook and #2 Twitter. That unique twist is that this brand of social network is professionally oriented. Most companies accept or even encourage the use of LinkedIn to develop professional networks, identify and recruit potential talent, and to increase professional...

Deficit and Debt

JaysRage — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 12:58:50 GMT

Debt -- How much you currently owe.

Deficit = How much more you spend in a year than you take in.

The current national debt stands at roughly 14.2 trillion dollars.

The projected U.S. GDP for the 2011 year is 15.2 trillion dollars.&#...

The choice has already been made

JaysRage — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 10:15:52 GMT

We are still in the middle of the largest financial crisis in my lifetime. In 2009, I was fascinated with understanding the dynamics of the recession, seeing how it related to the Great Depression and how it was different, understanding the policy decisions and what the possible results would be. The damage was already done. The warning signs had been unheeded for nearly a decade, and private and governm...

Investing in Chinese small caps -- Navigating the mine field

JaysRage — Tue, 11 Jan 2011 22:05:37 GMT

I've been an investor in Chinese small caps for nearly two years now, and it has been really interesting to watch generic investor sentiment change dramatically during that time. At first, there was hesitance because no one knew or understood Chinese stocks and there was a lack of availability. Then there was a significant increase in listings of Chinese stocks on American markets and there was a huge buzz. No...

Herb Greenberg and LLEN

JaysRage — Thu, 23 Dec 2010 11:06:30 GMT

For the first time in my active investing career, I was victem to a batch of biased reporting by a prominent figure that attacked a stock that was a primary holding in my short-term portfolio. I should probably just be happy that this opportunity provided a new low entry point for my stock, but I feel compelled to defend the stock from this attack, since I have done my due diligence on this stock, and none of the information that was...

Tomorrow is a big day for the Russell 2000

JaysRage — Thu, 10 Jun 2010 15:22:13 GMT

Every year the Russell 2000 index re-calibrates itself. Companies that no longer are large enough to qualify are culled from the index and new companies that meet the eligibility requirements are added. This year, an additional requirement was added that could affect a number of foreign stocks currently included.

In order to qualify for the Russell 2000 this year, a company must be headquartered in the ...

The economic impact of BP spill on Florida and U.S. economy

JaysRage — Fri, 28 May 2010 15:58:27 GMT

Everyone was in a panic when Greece was unable to pay its debts and was on the verge of going under economically as a country. Greece's GDP is less than half of that of the GSP of the state of Florida. As the BP spill makes its way onto the coasts and into the waters, it appears inevitable that this will have a devestating effect on the beach, fishing waters and general property value of large parts of the state of Florida. This is a st...

The Crossroads

JaysRage — Wed, 26 May 2010 14:34:12 GMT

In DragonLZ's post, TSIF most accurately described the current market as a crossroads. There are powerful forces at play in opposite directions that are driving the market.

The Bullish Case

1) EVERY government continues to pour currency into the system to prop up their respective economies. This has the effect of inflating the value of everything measured in currency, including stocks. ...

Macro-technical-analysts? How important is 1150?

JaysRage — Mon, 10 May 2010 15:41:40 GMT

Before everything broke down and the whole world fell apart on Thursday, several analysts were talking about key points of support and resistance for the S&P, and the marker that was most mentioned is 1150. I don't think it's a coincidence that the market found this key point of resistance/support today. How important do you think it is that the market finishes above this marker in order for the rally to continue?