Today's real money trades

anticitrade — Mon, 08 Nov 2010 12:35:12 GMT

Quick update on some real money trades made today:

Sold DFZ, CSR, UGP and TNDM.

Purchased:

BZ, GIGM, and SUTR.

Based solely on fundamentals, earnings growth and relative valuation.

GIGM also benefited from my sentiment tool indicating that it was currently a good buy.&...

Can a consumer sentiment based valuation be automated?

anticitrade — Thu, 04 Nov 2010 12:28:20 GMT

For the last month or so I have been devoting all my free time to the development of an idea of using specific consumer sentiment to predict price movement for specific stocks. I now have a working model that correlates sentiment individually and specifically to any given stock price.

I evaluated the top 100 largest cap companies using my methodology and then created a portfolio based on the direc...

Future of anticitrade webpage

anticitrade — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 10:46:10 GMT

I have been asked many times over the last 3 months when the anticitrade website would be back online. Because of the many parties impacted by this decision, answering this question has been problematic. However, because of new developments, I feel I can finally provide an answer to this question.

First you should know some facts about the anticitrade website:

4 Real Money Trades

anticitrade — Fri, 29 Oct 2010 15:48:21 GMT

So after sitting in 70% cash and 30% mostly international stocks since August, I have decided to start buying up a few positions again.

The positions I purchased are:

GNK - I am always a sucker for these bulk water transportation companies.... BUT I just love these fundamentals. I can make a pretty sound argument for a fair price being about $30 for these guys......

The search for the golden ticket continues.

anticitrade — Mon, 25 Oct 2010 10:47:08 GMT

It's been a while since I have updated my picks here on Motley Fool. However, after a very long weekend (probably 20+ hours working on updating my model in the last 2 days alone) I am back in business. I am proud to say that it is now based on 10 years of quarterly data and includes a seasonality test and adjustment. You will notice that I ended 81 picks late last night and replaced them with 81 new ones directly...

Why I think it's getting worse before it's getting better.

anticitrade — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 09:12:12 GMT

There is a Simpson's episode where Chief Wiggum has somehow caught his tie in the hot dog turning apparatus at a gas station. As the machine slowly reels him in, Chief Wiggum says:

"Oh boy, this is going to get worse before it gets better..."

As I have reviewed the economic indicators, I have shared Chief Wiggum’s reluctant feeling of despair.

Several weeks a...

What I didn't sell.

anticitrade — Mon, 16 Aug 2010 12:43:38 GMT

It's tough to say for sure, but I think the market is going to get worse before it gets better. I have been watching rail time indicators, inventory levels, the debt market, and various other factors for several months now and the positive news seems to have peaked and now be dropping. Now that pretty much all the Q2 news is out, I just don't see a lot of giggles and smiles in store for us during the second half of this year. While I do not believe that w...

Anticitrade model needs new data source.

anticitrade — Thu, 08 Jul 2010 13:59:26 GMT

This past weekend the data source for anticitrade reformatted and changed all their data. Unfortunately, the anticitrade model requires a fairly significant rebuild before it can once again transform buckets of numbers into price targets for stocks.

It is difficult to say how long it will take to repair the model, and what the impact will be on the recommendations. However, my own financial investment into the models recommendations motivates me...

Back to 200 picks, and a few real money buys.

anticitrade — Mon, 28 Jun 2010 14:23:16 GMT

It has taken several months, but I have finally got this portfolio back down to 200 active picks (if you remember some fluke through my pick quantity up to 270ish several months ago, which did nothing good for my score).

Additionally, I finally got around to making some new picks. My last set of picks focused on increasing my exposure to Asia (right before Asia became the dog of the market). For several months now I have wanted to add som...

Still Alive.

anticitrade — Wed, 23 Jun 2010 13:32:14 GMT

It's been a while since I have posted anything here to Motley Fool, which has probably led most of you to believe I have either been detained by the SEC or killed in a freak excel accident. The truth however, is far less interesting. Besides all the normal stuff, I spent a little bit of time building a model to predict world cup game outcomes with some success (I have Germany beating Ghana 2.15:1.02, and Serbia beating Australia 1.88:1.10).

I ha...

Visit to New York and Free T-shirts for Rumblers

anticitrade — Sat, 08 May 2010 11:32:08 GMT

First of all:

I am in New York for a few days and wouldn't mind meeting up with a few other fools if you are in the neighborhood and interested. If so email me at anticitrade@gmail.com.

Second:

The 6 months of the rumblin test have passed and I think the results across the board were pretty interesting. I will give yo...

7 Day Coldest Player Charm Rains on my Parade

anticitrade — Wed, 05 May 2010 12:16:39 GMT

The last year or so has been like a giant parade for me. I have marched around, tooted my horn, and thrown bits of candy out to children. However, the parade route has recently been re-routed into some dark alleys and rain clouds have gathered overhead. The once jovial parade clowns have pulled me from my elevated seat on the anticitrade float, kicked me squarely in the crotch and taken my wallet while I was lying on the ground. ...

Don't think liquidation value is relavent? Neither did I.

anticitrade — Tue, 27 Apr 2010 11:03:13 GMT

Liquidation value calculation has long been an area that I credited with dubious value at best. However, my repeated tests of its ability to create real returns for investors has convinced me of the potential positive impact it may have on a portfolio.

Let me run through a few of my tests and the results that I found.

This may be the catalyst I have been waiting for to start over with my anticitrade model 2.0.

Any thoughts? Should I start over with my new set of picks or build off my original success?

The quiet before the storm

anticitrade — Tue, 20 Apr 2010 17:56:23 GMT

How does the US earn the quality of life their citizens enjoy?

Are they producing more value? Or printing more value?

Are they exporting high value goods out of the country? Or exporting paper bills?

If we accept that some deviation from reality exists in the consumption vs. production balance in the US, then how is allowed to exist?

Is it possible that all policy making parties...

First full year of real money returns from the anticitrade model with transaction costs.

anticitrade — Sat, 27 Mar 2010 20:54:01 GMT

This is a graph I intended to put out a long time ago, but just got around too. Basically it shows my real money returns using my own model for the last year. I have included my transaction costs (starting out at 20$ per trade ouch! especially when you initial investment was only $4,000). I will probably post some more details about current vs past beta values, and maybe try to break the chart up into a few different sections...

...

America is something something and the market is blah blah blah.

anticitrade — Wed, 24 Mar 2010 10:16:52 GMT

It seems you can hardly throw a rock in America today without hitting someone who is either murmuring about the problems of our government, or complaining that the market is moving in the wrong direction (and believe me, I throw a lot of rocks). While summing up all this negativity and whining may create a powerful force for evil on the Care Bears ®, it actually has very little true power or value in the real world. Then assuming you are as smart as you think y...

Evaluation of my original 200 short positions (anticitradshort portfolio) & interesting charts.

anticitrade — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 14:00:45 GMT

So I am once again spending a lot of my "back burner" intelligence thinking about shorts... I am focusing on what went wrong in my previous attempts to automate this process and developed a pretty interesting graph...

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_tCAlrevW8D4/S5fmMIW-UZI/AAAAAAAAAKU/YZZb4xLwFwo/s400/short.bmp"><...

Evaluation of the top 100 recommendations made by the anticitrade model on March 31st of last year.

anticitrade — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 14:53:19 GMT

The combination of reaching a year or results and my involvement with the tigerpack matual fund experiement has caused me to spend some time evaluating my models ability to pick stocks. Because several users of Motley Fool are familiar with my service, I thought I would publish some of this information here that I thought was particularly interesting.

So on March 31st I created a watchlist of the top 100 picks on antiictrade. Today I did ...

Biggest stock downgrades and upgards in this weekends analysis.

anticitrade — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 11:42:07 GMT

Thought it might be interesting to test a post detailing what my models best downgrades/upgrades are for the week.

Here are a few downgards:

CRTX - This is actually the stock that prompted this post since I recommended it and purchased it earlier this week. It soon had a great earnings release and increased in price. However, these new financial statements indicated a new negative trend in the mar...

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