TheBarnacle's Blog

Are we running out of value picks.

TheBarnacle — Tue, 02 Apr 2013 21:44:36 GMT

Just ran my deep value screen, and it appears that only three picks are available. As of this month, seem to be limited to BRLI, FRAN, and ZUMZ. As usual, I'm focused on clean debt sheets, cash flow, and a decent GARP.

Still Holding to Original Prediction

TheBarnacle — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 11:22:32 GMT

I have been holding the theory that Obama will win on November 6. Nothing has changed that position.

I find it interesting that the blog sit 538 gives Obama a 79% chance of winning.

Using data from 1920 to present, I see Obama with a 88.4% chance of winning, and a 98% chance of doing better than 1.7%

Using data from 1892 to present, it is...

Obama Has It Locked Up

TheBarnacle — Mon, 08 Oct 2012 12:18:26 GMT

There are debates, and then there are facts.

The recent unemployment report brought the 4 year Misery Index to 9.1. This is a full 1 point better than it was when Obama was re-elected. Additionally, we've seen the S&P improve an annulized 11.7% since the 2008 elections. This overwhelms the previous quadrennial average of -2.8%.

There are too many econom...

Obama Closing in On Re-election

TheBarnacle — Fri, 10 Aug 2012 20:41:24 GMT

With the new unemployment data, and the improved S&P 500, Obama now has a 77% to 86% chance of winning this November. There is not much Romney can do. Even the recent CNN poll has Obama in the lead by 7.

It is now just a matter of how much.

Obama's Chances in Four Months

TheBarnacle — Sat, 07 Jul 2012 08:13:36 GMT

Since my May post, the misery index has remained at 9.6%, and the annualized growth of the S&P 500 since November 1, 2008 has dropped to 9.53% (far better than the annualized decline of -6.8% during Bush's second term). With these factors taken into consideration, Obama has a 76%-85% probability of being re-elected.

We are in unchartered territory when it comes to some of the data. Only twice i...

It Will Always Be About The Economy!

TheBarnacle — Wed, 02 May 2012 19:14:09 GMT

Now that it seems to be Obama v. Romney 2012, it is worth pointing out some key economic measures that will be indicators of who will win.

At election time in 2008, the unemployment rate was 6.6% with an annualized inflation rate of 3.6%; giving us a misery index of 10.2%. Ironcially, that was above the brightline of 10% that my political scientist father noted as a key stat indicating that the cont...

GARP for the long haul

TheBarnacle — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 13:56:53 GMT

I am strictly a GARP trader, and tend to buy and hold for a long time, sometimes for five years. I first entered The Fool on Ocotber 30, 2006. On that day, I said the following stocks would outperform the market (S&P 500 average is -1.15% since then):

BVN (34.5%), CECO (1.28%), CEO (28.26%), CHS (-12.32%), CRYP (-49.45%), EOG (11.71%), ERES (-3.97%), HWAY (-22.23%), MMSI (2.09%), NTE (-10.14%),...

FXEN. Seriously? Are you kidding?

TheBarnacle — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 19:50:01 GMT

Someone please explain this to me. It has a P/E of 70.57, The P/S is 17.53 and the P/B is 27.4, and the price has more than double in the past year. While the growth rate is decent, this stock has the potential to drop an additional 14% on top of the 12% drop it took today. This stock has too much debt and is too rich.

BVN Looks Golden

TheBarnacle — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 10:48:11 GMT

This stock has hit my screen off and on over the past seven or so years. Once again, it's beginning to look like a buy. The P/E of 18.14 with a historical growth rate of 19.95 makes it a buy. With a quick ratio of 3.51, net income of $662 million, cash flow of $734 million, sales of $1.1 billion, and with NO DEBT, it is a safe buy. It looks like owning a gold company is a better investment than owning gold.

A Christmas List for GARP Investors

TheBarnacle — Mon, 06 Dec 2010 10:41:31 GMT

These stocks should be on the buy list for the investor that looks for growth at a reasonable price. All have great balance sheets, low debt, and heavy cash flows.

EZPW (P/E = 13.9, Growth = 22.5%)

FSLR (P/E = 17.46, Growth = 55.5%)

GES (P/E = 16.29, Growth = 24.3%)

GRMN (P/E = 9.21, Growth = 24.9%...

Mr. Market is a little too fat from Thanksgiving turkey

TheBarnacle — Fri, 03 Dec 2010 09:36:15 GMT

I just ran my parameters, and it appears that there are no new stocks on my horizon. Yet BEXP, NFLX, FXEN, CRM, and TZOO are a little to fat from the holiday bird. When this dynamic occurs, it is a personal indicator that the market is too frothy and will hit a downward trend.

In the meantime, have a great holiday season.

This one must fall.

TheBarnacle — Thu, 02 Dec 2010 06:51:37 GMT

My jaw dropped with I saw CRM with a P/E of 261.89. The earnings would have to improve over 500% to get the P/E down to a reasonable level of 40 or below. I'm not sure how that is going to come from sales, because the P/S is over 11 and the P/B is over 15. With this stock up 128%, it has to go down.

TZOO cannot keep it up.

TheBarnacle — Mon, 29 Nov 2010 16:56:52 GMT

I just don't understand why this stock continues to sell well with such ridiculous ratios. P/E is 59, P/S is 6 and P/B is 15.5. After a run up of 180%, this has got to slow down.

Where is Mr. Market taking us?

TheBarnacle — Thu, 21 Oct 2010 22:12:43 GMT

I am not sure whether to bid up or down on this market. BLUD, RIMM, and GES look interesting, but nothing new is hitting my screens. Yet, there seems to be nothing to short either. I am just not sure where things are going.

Metals Play

TheBarnacle — Fri, 23 Jul 2010 19:22:53 GMT

Add these to your metals portfolio. They are best in industry plays, and are diversified with the metals sector. All of these have strong margins and they are flushed with cash.

BVN

SCCO (I actually own this one)

GNI

Final GARP picks for July 2010

TheBarnacle — Fri, 23 Jul 2010 18:07:21 GMT

Finally, also added crmt and apsg to my list for upside potential. All three have bulletproof balance sheets and growth rates that exceed the price to value. We will see a year from now.

More GARP picks for July 2010

TheBarnacle — Fri, 23 Jul 2010 18:06:03 GMT

Also added matk, gymb, and fds to my list for upside potential. All three have bulletproof balance sheets and growth rates that exceed the price to value. We will see a year from now.

GARP Picks for July 2010

TheBarnacle — Fri, 23 Jul 2010 18:04:24 GMT

Just added www, ravn, and nke to my list for upside potential. All three have bulletproof balance sheets and growth rates that exceed the price to value. We will see a year from now.

Can't find anything to recommend

TheBarnacle — Wed, 02 Jun 2010 21:17:15 GMT

Did my monthly run of my GARP screen. I can honestly say that there is not much out there. SYNT, NTES, JCOM, and HANS, pop up, but I recommended those some time back. There is nothing new on the horizon. This is usually a good indicator, for me, to slow down.

It's still the economy, stupid.

TheBarnacle — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 14:33:25 GMT

With this new two year low in the stock market, I will be interested in seeing how it will affect the upcoming election.

One thing I will be looking at is the "misery index". If the four-year annualized inflation rate and the unemployment rate add to more than 9.5%, then McCain is in serious trouble. Not his fault, but history shows that a "throw the bums out" mentality will occur for the Republicans if this nonsen...