TLStockPicks's Blog

AAPL cash

TLStockPicks — Mon, 11 Feb 2013 10:59:43 GMT

Apparently, the best way to make people believe that something exists is to talk about it incessantly. Maybe write some books, make a movie or two, sing a few songs... and soon you'll have more and more people finding themselves unable to deny the existence of God, Bigfoot, male-friendly lesbians, or Apple's $137+billion cash pile. Oh wait, AAPL's cash pile DOES exist. Duh. Well, I guess...

Apple DCF

TLStockPicks — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 17:32:12 GMT

Do you believe that Apple's earnings this year will be flat vs. last year?

Do you believe that Apple will experience less-than-inflationary net income growth the next 4 years?

Do you believe that Apple is lying about its cash and actually has 0 book value?

Do you believe that Apple's market cap (value) will b...

Tiger's NEW Endorsements

TLStockPicks — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 18:08:32 GMT

The gaping hole created by Tiger's enormous absence has left golf fans yearning for his reinsertion. Their prayers to watch him penetrate the fairway with his meaty driver once again were answered with the news about the Masters, where Tiger announced he was (some say, prematurely) coming.

Ok enough of the forced innue...

Get 'em while they're young!

TLStockPicks — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 17:35:16 GMT

Pepsi announced today that it would continue its campaign against kiddie-fatness by pulling soft drinks from schools in over 200 countries. http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j9yETrgC-O9l18PFLBkjhfjYfSOgD9EFPNV03

I'm not a fan of this move. There's no better time and place to get societies addicte...

The marriage penalty on itemized deductions

TLStockPicks — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 18:33:54 GMT

Good lord, Uncle Sam sure loves married people's money! I was talking to my brother who realized that this year he has to send in over $1,000 to the IRS, even though he claims a 0 withholding while his wife only used a 2.

We've all heard about the marriage penalty... you know, same woman for the rest of your life (ha ha just kidding). It's something that happens due to the progressive structure of taxes that makes some...

Those Crazy Analysts...

TLStockPicks — Tue, 26 Jan 2010 10:24:14 GMT

If an analyst told you that a stock was going to go up 40% in a year, you'd think that was good news right?

Well, not according to Scott Gleason at Stephens, Inc. Although he gave Genoptix (GXDX) a price target of $45 (highest of all the anaylsts covering GXDX), he still downgraded the stock to Equal-Weight (from Overweight) last night after it closed at a 4 month low at $32.60, briefly knocking GXDX down below ...

Buy an Airport on eBay!

TLStockPicks — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 13:13:16 GMT

I've been rediscovering the fun of browsing eBay and came across this listing:

http://cgi.ebay.com/Sussex-Airport_W0QQitemZ130360088762QQcmdZViewItemQQptZCommercial?hash=item1e5a1118ba

Sure, basically all of those fat cat wall street CEOs have their own airplanes....

Drive a 1 year old Audi A4 for less than a Nissan Sentra!

TLStockPicks — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 17:15:32 GMT

About 10 months ago, I managed to snag a 1 year old mint-condition 2008 Audi A4 with 12,000 miles for just under $19,000 (plus 7% tax... total financed was $20,262, with about $500 down for title etc). After looking around the internet, I've determined that the trade in value for a 3 year old Audi will land at approximately $17,000. So next year, when the car hits 3, i'm looking to trade it in and get my next 1 year old.

My p...

PRAA: Heavy short manipulation? Or is the joke on me?

TLStockPicks — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 11:29:07 GMT

PRAA is the biggest holding in my portfolio. So when it drops almost 15% in a week off of no direct news, I get jittery.

The debt collector posted its earnings back in October, so a large move this past week was highly unexpected. There's a few things that makes me think this is just a wild short manipulation: 1) AACC, its closest competitor trading on the exchange, has been gaining, meaning that the sell pressure is dir...

So long, 3Com. You taught me well.

TLStockPicks — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 18:21:07 GMT

I consider 3Com to be my mentor in my foray into stock analysis. Back in 2006, COMS was one of the first stocks I ever bought with real money... not because I knew anything about 3Com, or even stocks in general, but because of the allure that came with being $4 bucks/share, when it used to be so much more expensive. I can't believe how much I didn't know back then.

3Com is a company with a history of reinventing the...

PRAA delivers best valuation news one can hope for. Gets destroyed.

TLStockPicks — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 16:52:14 GMT

When was the last time you heard an earnings release from a finance/investment firm end with, "We are budgeting internally for substantial revenue and earnings growth next year"? That is the equivalent of saying "throw your stupid models in the trash, analysts. We'll be blowing it out the water!" And how often does management follow up by boasting on the earnings call that the word "substantial&q...

Copper: Why I hate it.

TLStockPicks — Mon, 18 May 2009 11:55:54 GMT

The more I think about copper, the more I hate it. No, it never kicked my dog nor made fun of my mom, but it did lose me a bit of money through my investment in FCX, the copper mining giant of the world, a year ago. And I can't see the upside anymore.

My portfolio is still thumbs up on FCX, but that's just a hangover from last year and I'm waiting for it to turn positive so I can close out. When I bought into the c...

Could I have done better?

TLStockPicks — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 18:38:35 GMT

It was only a little more than a week ago that I both made a CAPS outperform call and took a real money position in Brandywine Realty Trust (BDN) at $2.60. As of today's close, this REIT, which focuses on A-class office properties in the Philadelphia area, is up about 40%, closing at $3.68.

I'm not bragging here. (Ok, maybe a little.) But I think I screwed up. I found an opportun...

Technical Stock Analysis: An Exercise in Creative Writing and Fuzzy Logic?

TLStockPicks — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 16:19:00 GMT

Technical analysis annoys me to no end. I don't doubt that it is effective for short-term trading... actually, I think if used right, it can be a very profitable tool for trading (though you better have a vomit bag next to you). So, unlike most other critics, I do not criticize the practice as being unfounded or stupid. Rather, the thing that annoys me is how the analyses are written... and then how little 90% of practitioners see...

What on earth was Jim Cramer doing last night?

TLStockPicks — Fri, 13 Mar 2009 11:32:58 GMT

I like Stewart. I don't like Cramer. But in this whole debate about responsibility and how stock touts are evil, Stewart is dead wrong. And Cramer sat there, took it in the rear, and failed to remind the world that this stock "investment" world is indeed one giant clusterkuf of a game, and you knew damn well before getting into it that it was risky.

How many times have people told you that the stock market is risky? If...

The recession is OVER!

TLStockPicks — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 15:23:17 GMT

Yesterday I posted a short blog proclaiming the end of the recession. It somehow got modded and deleted, though Hypnotoad still manages to get his post in every day without hassle. Maybe someone at CAPS wants the economy to fail and is trying to censor the good news? Who knows.

Anyways, I don't know if you all have seen, but the economy has been fixed. The wheels of acquisitions and mergers are churning again, credit downgrades ...

I'm trying to fix the real estate market, but the banks won't let me!

TLStockPicks — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 18:21:59 GMT

I rent my apartment. I want to own a house. I found a vacant foreclosure that I want to buy. By purchasing this house, I can reduce the supply overhang in this country from 14.5415516 months to 14.5415516 months.

The seller's broker says, "No offers with contingencies. If you want a mortgage, we want a mortgage commitment. No approval, no pre-qual, no doctor's note." My lending bank says, &...

Ethanol is EVIL!

TLStockPicks — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 12:16:42 GMT

Say no to ethanol! Everytime you fill your gas tank up with that 10% corn-based ethanol gas they have at BP, you kill a starving child. Using ethanol takes food right out of their mouths and puts it into some self-righteous bastard's gas tank. Think you're doing the world a favor because you're not using up fossil fuel? Guess what? Somebody ELSE is going to use it up! Better for us to all stick with fos...

Portfolio Recovery Associates... and something...

TLStockPicks — Thu, 12 Feb 2009 15:52:23 GMT

This is my favorite stock of all time and I just realized i have no clue what the second A is for.

Anyways, I wanted to get this entry in before the bell so I can be laughed at come 4:00. PRAA, the debt collection agency that collect... debt... is announcing today, which of course invites crystal ball predictions of whether it will beat the street. My crystal balls say yes, and I doubled my stock position to put my money where my ...

Inflation? Deflation? Both?

TLStockPicks — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 13:17:57 GMT

The credit crunch affecting this country is superficial. Banks have hoardes of cash, but they can't lend because the other assets on their books (namely MBSs and CDSs) are being marked down to market during a time when there is currently no fluid market to provide accurate pricing feedback. With these assets being marked at dimes on the dollar, and the government requiring a certain amount of assets for every dollar that the bank lends, these banks mu...