Melaschasm's Blog

2012 Predictions Mostly Accurate

Melaschasm — Thu, 03 Jan 2013 00:25:03 GMT

1. The S&P ends the year around 1400. I was wrong.

2. My CAPS score ends the year above 500. No surprise that I was wrong, there is a reason I use an asset allocation model for my real portfolio.

3. Real Estate prices bottom in 2012. I was right

4. Real Estate prices finish the year with at lea...

2013 Predictions

Melaschasm — Wed, 26 Dec 2012 23:00:44 GMT

1. Real Estate goes up in price by 5% or more.

2. S&P 500 ends 2013 above 1700.

3. The Federal government will spend more in 2013 than was spent in 2012.

4. Official Core CPI inflation will be less than 4%

Five Myths of Ryan’s Budget

Melaschasm — Mon, 27 Aug 2012 15:38:10 GMT

This blog post is a critique of Peter Orszag’s column.

1. Ryan’s budget does not reduce the debt

The CBO analysis says that Ryan’s budget will reduce the deficit, which puts a big hole in Peter’s claims. Using spending caps, can be a problem, and many politicians like to backload such caps, know that they will never occur. ...

Real Estate Booming?

Melaschasm — Sat, 30 Jun 2012 17:37:19 GMT

In the USA a growing number of local real estate markets are showing year over year price increases. While volatility can be expected, it appears likely that we will see consistant yoy price increases for the US market as a whole this winter. Furthermore, it is probable that we are at the begining of a new bull market in real estate that will last 4+ years.

What do y'all think?

Windows 8 a failed OS?

Melaschasm — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 13:27:59 GMT

I have some early reports from friends in the IT industry who are indicating that Windows 8 will be a failure for the desktop and laptop markets. These same friends correctly predicted that Windows ME would be a collossal failure, and that Windows Vista would be a big failure.

Unfortunately I do not have information about Windows 8 as a cell phone and tablet operating system. If Windows 8 becomes a...

2012 Predictions

Melaschasm — Sun, 01 Jan 2012 23:20:47 GMT

1. The S&P ends the year around 1400.

2. My CAPS score ends the year above 500

3. Real Estate prices bottom in 2012.

4. Real Estate prices finish the year with at least three consecutive monthly YoY increases.

5. The unemployment rate stays above 7% all year.

Obama decares that tomatoes are niether a fruit, nor a vegetable.

Republicans in Congress declare tomatos are a vegetable.

The media spends a week bashing republicans for declaring pizza a vegetable.

[siiiiiiiiiiiiigh]

[sigh]

Tax Cuts Should be Temporary – Supply Side Economics

Melaschasm — Thu, 16 Jun 2011 16:33:52 GMT

Supply Side economics is Keynesian economics!

That may be shocking to people who have not studied economics, but it is true. Long ago when Keynes developed what we now refer to as Keynesian economics, he talked about both spending increases and tax cuts as effective fiscal stimulus during a recession.

Supply Siders believe ...

Keynesian economists, where art thou?

Melaschasm — Thu, 09 Jun 2011 13:53:46 GMT

During the recession many people declared their support for Keynesian economic policy, and demanded a big spending stimulus. After trillions of dollars of extra spending, the recession is over.

Now Keynesian economics requires spending cuts. That Obama, democrats and many republican politicians have abandoned their recently held economic principles is not surpri...

Green Thumb the S&P?

Melaschasm — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 15:02:28 GMT

Crazy idea right?

From a CAPS points perspective there is no reason to directly green thumb an S&P ETF, even though investing in such an ETF can be a very good idea.

If you are reasonably good at macro economics, and feel confident that the S&P will be significantly higher at some point during the next 5 years, how can you turn that knowledge into CAPS points ...

T-Bills and Interest Rates

Melaschasm — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 15:31:53 GMT

Currently interest rates in the USA are near historic lows. It seems very likely that rates will be higher at some point in the next five years. I have already mentioned this and the reasons in my red thumbing long term T-Bill funds. In this blog I will attempt to make a more detailed prediction about the future rate changes.

2011 Fed policy. QE 2 will end soon, but it is likely to take...

Time to buy EWJ?

Melaschasm — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 14:23:17 GMT

The disaster in Japan is horrible and my prayers go out to the people, particularly my colleagues and friends.

But this is CAPS and we are supposed to be thinking about and discussing investment opportunities. Disasters like this often present an investment opportunity as the markets tend to overreact to the economic harm. Some others have already mentioned the idea of investing in construct...

Has GNI bottomed, or does it have further to fall?

Melaschasm — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 11:24:45 GMT

A week ago I read an interesting article about GNI, which led to my short position on GNI. http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/01/05/a-massive-dividend-youd-be-crazy-to-buy.aspx?source=itxsitmot0000001&lidx=4

Now...

Keynesian economics sounds good to me.

Melaschasm — Tue, 03 Aug 2010 16:20:19 GMT

According to keynesian economics, the US government should cut spending, run a surplus, and pay off the debt during times of GDP growth. That sounds great to me. Since I have now converted to keynesian economics, let this be the first of many demands that the US government cut spending by 10% per year for the years 2012 - 2015.

My beloved fellow keynesian, President Obama, has released a budget that assumes we will have a blistering GDP growth r...

Bottom for National Bank of Greece?

Melaschasm — Wed, 14 Apr 2010 16:28:03 GMT

During the US banking mess we saw a collapse of stock prices because of fear, panic, and lack of transparency. We mostly know the banks were cooking the books in 2009, but we did not know how much fraud was occurring.

In my opinion, NBG is facing a similar situation right now. While it is possible that they will be allowed to fail, it seems more likely that they will be bailed out.

Where are we in the process?&...

By the Numbers: NVO

Melaschasm — Thu, 18 Mar 2010 14:21:30 GMT

NVO - Novo Nordisk A/S - Engaged in discovery, development, manufacturing and marketing of pharmaceutical products and has two business segments - diabetes care and biopharmaceuticals.

Some CAPS Information

5 Star Rating

Total Debt-to-Equity Ratio = 0.03

Return on Equity (TTM) = 29.40

Price-to-E...

By the Numbers: BDX

Melaschasm — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 17:14:19 GMT

BDX - Becton, Dickinson and Co. - A medical technology company engaged in the manufacture and sale of medical supplies, devices, laboratory equipment and diagnostic products used by healthcare institutions, life science researchers, clinical laboratories, industry and the general public.

Some CAPS Information

5 Star Rating

Total Debt-to...

By the Numbers: ADY

Melaschasm — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 14:52:11 GMT

I have noticed that my global gains contest picks are doing much better than my regular profile picks. ADY showed up on a CAPS screen I created based upon those I used to make my contest picks. This screen considers both domestic and foriegn companies.

ADY - American Dairy, Inc. - through its subsidiaries, produces and distributes milk powder, soybean milk powder, and...