Get Out of the Market

walt373 — Sun, 15 Jan 2012 16:42:32 GMT

Greece will probably default and exit the Euro in the next few months. Other periphery countries like Portugal and Ireland will probably follow them. The Eurozone could break up later this year or next. Europe is entering a recession and if austerity is enforced, they will face a depression. The main problem of trade imbalances is not being addressed - Germany needs to run a trade deficit.

China will see their...

Steep Dropoff in Netflix Metric

walt373 — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 17:14:20 GMT

Netflix metrics on Alexa.com are mostly flat or slightly down over the past few months, but one stands out, search %, because it has seen such a striking dropoff.

A Bank Run in Europe

walt373 — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 01:04:10 GMT

This article is a must-read for anyone following Europe. Michael Pettis outlines why periphery countries could experience a bank run. I really wonder who still has their money in Greek banks.

CME Margin Hike

walt373 — Sat, 05 Nov 2011 05:06:04 GMT

CME raises maintenance margin on all products. ZH link here. I don't know much about futures but this sounds like a pretty big deal. Could see some fireworks on Monday... any thoughts?

China: Smells Like 2008

walt373 — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 00:15:03 GMT

Anecdotal evidence

Harbin Electric (HRBN)

walt373 — Thu, 27 Oct 2011 11:53:28 GMT

Just a quick idea for a high-risk/high-reward speculation: short HRBN.

HRBN is a potential Chinese RTO fraud that's supposedly getting bought out by management. Lots of controvery surrounding this stock. Shareholders are voting this week and the deal can be terminated if not done by March 8, 2012. If the deal goes through, the stock could be acquired as early as next week.

Financial Engineering for Social Good

walt373 — Sat, 22 Oct 2011 21:26:10 GMT

Here is a very interesting speech by Andrew Lo at MIT on financial engineering: how it caused the financial crisis, what purpose it serves in society (managing incentives), and how we can use it to cure cancer and solve other major challenges.

MMT Response to Ron Paul

walt373 — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 22:27:40 GMT

For all you Austrians out there, I know you will just love this post from pragcap.

I am curious, what is the Austrian view of sectoral balances?

Y = C...

Chanos on Value Traps

walt373 — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 02:00:53 GMT

Great points by Jim Chanos on oil majors, for-profit education, commodities, and China.

A Massive Untapped Resource

walt373 — Sat, 08 Oct 2011 21:08:13 GMT

There is a huge untapped resource in the US today and that is human productivity. Everyone knows that the unemployment rate sits at 9.1%, but that is just a statistic. You need to think of what that represents. The number of people this comes out to is about 16-17 million people if you include "discouraged" workers, and the number is even higher if you include underemployed people.

17 million people...

The Problem With Cigar Butts

walt373 — Fri, 07 Oct 2011 20:55:06 GMT

I think whoever said "think about a stock like you own all of it" did a lot of damage to investors, especially small investors who cannot possibly have any say in the business. Because in reality, a lot of value destruction happens between the time when a firm gets the cash and when the cash gets sent out to shareholders. This happens in stocks of all types, but many stocks go from the cradle to the grave without paying a single...

What Causes Depressions?

walt373 — Thu, 06 Oct 2011 02:52:34 GMT

“With one brief exception, the federal government has been in debt every year since 1776.... Since 1776 there have been exactly seven periods of substantial budget surpluses and significant reduction of the debt. From 1817 to 1821 the national debt fell by 29 percent; from 1823 to 1836 it was eliminated (Jackson’s efforts); from 1852 to 1857 it fell by 59 percent, from 1867 to 1873 by 27 percent, from 1880 to 1893 by more than 50 percent, and fr...

Economy on the Edge of a Nervous Breakdown

walt373 — Thu, 06 Oct 2011 02:21:46 GMT

Here is a very interesting article with stories from the Chinese bubble.

The Honest Mind of a Chinese Crook

walt373 — Tue, 04 Oct 2011 00:39:56 GMT

CEO of a Chinese fraud takes you behind the scenes. If you own a Chinese stock or have gotten burned by one...

Why Netflix is Still a Sell

walt373 — Sun, 02 Oct 2011 17:10:20 GMT

Netflix's recent debacle with the price hike and splitting of their DVD and streaming businesses has gotten a lot of attention lately, and on the face of it, it looks like they were what caused the stock's decline. But I believe these problems are only symptoms of much more serious issues. At worse, they have only accelerated an already ugly situation.

Netflix's main problem in a nutshell is that its strea...

Greece Flowchart

walt373 — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 18:21:59 GMT

Here's a nice little flowchart that sums up the situation.

Troubling Signs on Netflix Financial Statements

walt373 — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 03:49:01 GMT

I read most of this stuff in another blog here so I want to give credit where it's due. The guy kind of rambles though, so I will summarize it a little here. Also, feel free to correct me if you see any mistakes. I will be the first to admit that I am a novice when it comes to financial statements.

...

Looks Like All Downside From Here

walt373 — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 23:07:13 GMT

In the past, I did not pay much attention to macro, as I believed there were always many bullish and bearish forces working against each other, and it would be near impossible to accurately predict their aggregate effects. Also, I will be the first to admit that I am not an expert on macro economics. But right now I feel the macro picture is unusually clear and it looks like all the uncertainty is to the downside. So I'd like to share my thought...

Great Video of the Problem in the Economy - Balance Sheet Recession

walt373 — Sat, 20 Aug 2011 20:34:21 GMT

Some of you, like me, might have heard the term "balance sheet recession" being used in the past few years but never fully understood it. I watched this video by Richard Koo recently and it made a lot of sense to me. It happened to Japan and I think it's exactly what we are going through right now. The difference is that it's the consumers who are overleveraged this time instead of the corporations. How many homeowners are underwater s...

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Europe Fighting the Wrong Battles Again with Dangerous Consequences