Run on Greek Banks - black swan?
May 16, 2012
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Well, well, well - it looks like we have a good, old-fashioned bank run on our hands. According to http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-15/greek-president-told-banks-anxious-as-deposits-pulled.html, fearful depositors have yanked out '700 million euros ($891 million)'.
According to http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/05/16/euro-drops-after-report-regarding-greek-bank-operations/, it started when the ECB cut off funds to 4 Greek banks, and the bank run was on. These banks are running on negative equity (insolvent?) and need 'emergency liquidity assistance (ELA)' from the Greek central bank. I saw one editorial saying that the gov't must insure these funds right away (like the Fed did with US money market funds) before the Greek banking system collapses, unless it already has; if so, will this reassure depositors? We shall see (the government might simply be out of cash).
Depending on what happens the next couple of days, the Greek banking system might simply flatline, like the US did. Regardless of the impact on EU membership, this is sure to cause a deep, persistent recession (even worse than their current one), just like the US.
Is this an emerging 'black swan'? We will find out when the entire Greek banking system freezes solid; thanks to the Euro, they are intertwined with rest of the European Union. This would be a good time to make sure that you have good supply of Dramamine.
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