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Russian professor predicts collapse of U.S within months



September 30, 2009 – Comments (19)

'Mr. Obama is similar to the last Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev. Gorbachev was also making great promises for the Soviet Union, but the situation was only getting worse,' he said. By next summer, according to Professor Panarin, the US will disintegrate into six blocs--and everyone will get their piece. 'The probability that the United States of America fall apart in July 2010 is more than 50 percent,' said Igor Panarin, Professor at Moscow's Diplomatic Academy within the Russian Federation's Ministry of Foreign Affairs."Panarin came up with his grim forecast while analyzing the parallels between the Soviet Union in its final days and the current situation in the United States.’American dream ballooned seven times in 11 years. During Gorbachev era, the Soviet dream ballooned five times.' Americans hope [President] Barack Obama 'can work miracles,' he wrote. 'But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles.'Professor Igor Panarin said in an interview with the respected daily IZVESTIA . . . 'The dollar is not secured by anything. The country's foreign debt has grown like an avalanche, even though in the early 1980s there was no debt. By 1998, when I first made my prediction, it had exceeded $2 trillion. Now it is more than 11 trillion. This is a pyramid that can only collapse.' "When asked when the U.S. economy would collapse, Panarin said: 'It is already collapsing. Due to the financial crisis, three of the largest and oldest five banks on Wall Street have already ceased to exist, and two are barely surviving. Their losses are the biggest in history. Now what we will see is a change in the regulatory system on a global financial scale: America will no longer be the world's financial regulator. "the U.S. will break up into six parts-- the Pacific coast, with its growing Chinese population; the South, with its Hispanics; Texas, where independence movements are on the rise; the Atlantic coast, with its distinct and separate mentality; five of the poorer central states with their large Native American populations; and the northern states, where the influence from Canada is strong."  Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russian relations." "Until recently, no one took him very seriously. And then came the economic calamity that has rocked Americans and the rest of the world, too. Now, Panarin's predictions of an end of the United States, due to economic and moral collapse, is being taken seriously by many."[The breakup of the U.S., December 30, 2008

A historian and linguist from South Africa recently wrote me a fascinating letter, in which he chronicled the major world empires of history, dating the time of their rise and fall. Here is what his calculations look like:

Assyria (859-612 B.C.): a 247-year reign.

Persia (538-330 B.C.): a 208-year reign.

Greece (331-100 B.C.): a 231-year reign.

The Roman Republic (260-27 B.C.): a 233-year reign.

The Roman Empire (27 B.C.-180 A.D.): a 207-year reign.

The Arab Empire (634-880 A.D.): a 246-year reign.

The Mameluke Empire (1250-1517 A.D.): a 267-year reign.

The Ottoman Empire (1320-1570 A.D.): a 250-year reign.

Spain (1500-1750 A.D.): a 250-year reign.

Romanov Russia (1682-1916 A.D.): a 234-year reign.

Great Britain (1700-1950 A.D.): a 250-year reign.

The USA (1790-2009 A.D.): 219 years and counting        

My honorable historian-friend calculates America's reign using its post-Revolutionary War years. He notes that America's reign is currently at 219 years. He further notes that the average duration of every world superpower listed above is a little over 238 years.

One does not need to be a master mathematician or possess a Ph.D. to realize that America is fast approaching the mark in which every major world power in history has either collapsed or, at a minimum, lost its world leadership and power.


19 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 30, 2009 at 10:58 PM, russiangambit (28.67) wrote:

I think there was a post by abitare a couple of months ago about similarities between Gorbacheve and Obama. I didn't think about the situation that way until then but when I thought about it I saw quite a few similarities as well. I agree that  before USSR collapsed the things where getting progressively worse, there was a lot of talk from Gorbacheve and token support from Western leaders, but nothing was being done to address the situation. Just like right now.

I don't see a dissolution of the USA in the future though. I see "new normal" Pimco style.

As a side note, it is my personal opnion , of course, that even though Gorbachev was considered to be softy by russian standards, he was head and sholders above Obama in terms of personal courage. Obama hasn't attempted to do anything yet that could truly qualify as a singificant change, but Gorbachev put his life on the line when he attempted to reform communist party.

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#2) On September 30, 2009 at 11:13 PM, topsecret09 (87.88) wrote:

#1) On September 30, 2009 at 10:58 PM, russiangambit (97.29) wrote:   Gorbachev put his life on the line when he attempted to reform communist party. And Obama may be doing the same.....    Secret Service Investigates Facebook Obama PollSeptember 29, 2009

Sunnyvale, CA (RPRN) 09/29/09 — On Monday, September 28 2009, Facebook announced that it is working with the U.S. Secret Service in their investigation into the online poll that asked whether President Obama deserved to be killed. The Secret Service is looking to identify the individual behind the survey.

The Facebook poll, created over the weekend using a third-party application that lets users create and conduct their own surveys, asked users “Should Obama be killed?”, with the options of Yes, No, Maybe, and “If he cuts my health care”.

More than 750 Facebook users cast votes before the company disabled the application. As an outside developer controls the software, Facebook was forced to disable the entire program, saying that it will remain so until the developer can assure Facebook that the survey has been removed and policies and procedures have been put in place to handle such situations in the future.

“Of course we are offended by the content of the poll but objectionable ideas are in the world and, unfortunately, manifest on Facebook," Barry Schnitt, Facebook spokesperson, told AFP.

The poll was created sometime over the weekend, although when has not been disclosed. Facebook disabled the application as soon as users made the company aware of the survey. Soon thereafter the Secret Service opened their investigation.

Some, in response to the poll, are yelling racism; others as an example of the heightened emotions incited by the health care debate. Whichever it may be, the incident serves to highlight the fine balance many companies are forced to strike when involved with user-generated content.

Ironically, in its latest blog posting, dated September 22 2009 and titled “The Role of Technology in Promoting Tolerance”, guest blogger Rabbi Abraham Cooper, the Associate Dean of the Los Angeles Simon Wiesenthal Center for and Museum of Tolerance, discusses the power of social networking sites and modern technology in fostering and promoting understanding and tolerance.

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#3) On September 30, 2009 at 11:15 PM, Starfirenv (< 20) wrote:

Tops-  excellent post. Certainly food for thought. True, all "Empires" rise and fall. "Moral collapse" caught my eye. Unbridled, rampant greed can only work for so long, since "pillage by conquest" has been delegitimized. On the other hand, could this have been "engineered"?  +1 rec

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#4) On September 30, 2009 at 11:26 PM, 100ozRound (28.51) wrote:

I don't think that America's "reign" started in 1790.  I would bump it up from post-Revolutionary war to post-Industrial Revolution...

Maybe WW2...Right around Hiroshima and Nagasaki is when America became an "empire"? I'm no history buff but that seems about right to me...


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#5) On September 30, 2009 at 11:27 PM, starbucks4ever (79.83) wrote:

A KGB analyst is a separate nationality! It is characterized by a walnut-sized brain and by thinking patterns reminiscent of Inspector Clouseau. We should have a continuation of the Schtirlitz series of jokes, grouped together under the title "Panarin is thinking" :)

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#6) On September 30, 2009 at 11:38 PM, russiangambit (28.67) wrote:

Zloj, I don't really think KGB agents and bosses were stupid. They didn't recruit stupid. Of questionable character, no doubt. The system corrupted everybody.

I do miss Schtirlitz series, though, may be you should introduce them here.

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#7) On September 30, 2009 at 11:40 PM, chiragpatnaik (< 20) wrote:

Nope won't happen. US has a kind of homogeneity that has not been seen in any of the past empires built on conquest. The US has no significant land holdings outside continental North America. Combined with the gift of geography. America is an almost unassaiable fortress.

 It is also blessed with huge untapped natural resources, which are no way close to being exhausted.

 A collapse in the next few years and decades is well nigh impossible.


BTW, that list of empires is not complete. There have been empires which have lasted longer. Some over a 1000 year. HAve a look.

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#8) On September 30, 2009 at 11:45 PM, booyahh (< 20) wrote:

America is not Japan. And America is certainly not the Soviet Union.

Russians see collapse everywhere, because they recently lived through the collapse of their own nation.

The world abandoned Russia because nobody  economically needed Russia. But the world needs the US, especially the US consumer. However weakened we are, we are still 11% of global consumption. In addition to this, while we do not make dollar store toys and can-openers anymore, we do make the most hi-tech goods in the world, in all fields, from health care to aeronautics to agriculture.

So while the world never cared about Russia collapsing, they still need the US.

Otherwise international trade shuts down and everyone collapses with it.

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#9) On September 30, 2009 at 11:55 PM, starbucks4ever (79.83) wrote:


they were so intelligent that they couln't even save their own beloved socialist system from falling apart.

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#10) On October 01, 2009 at 12:04 AM, bigcat1969 (81.12) wrote:

I would also agree with 100ozround that the US 'reign' didn't start until after WW1 at the earliest and likely ont until WW2.  We were busy trying to spread through our own country for most of the first hundred years plus that we were around and had almost no international standing.  Even getting us into WW2 took a lot of doing, as our Prez was basically trying to tempt Germany or Japan to attack us as he didn't have the clout to just decalre war.  We were very much against overseas involvements up to that point.

Also when you look at that list most of those nations built their empires on warfare and conquest.  After claiming (possibly quite bloodily) our own nation, who have we ever conquered and occupied?  For the most modern example, the USSR, they controlled East Germany, we sort of helped West Germany and then generally let the people run the country.

America has never been a traditional empire and it might be tough to compare us to traditional empires (except for Rome of course ((see former posts for yours truly getting ripped apart for that))).

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#11) On October 01, 2009 at 12:28 AM, DarthMaul09 (29.16) wrote:

Interesting, but unlikely to be right.  There is safety in numbers and although California may be a world away from Utah, crisis and fear will bring them closer together, not farther apart.  That professor probably missed the US response to 9/11.

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#12) On October 01, 2009 at 12:43 AM, AvianFlu (< 20) wrote:

I'm going to put America's high point at around 1890. This was when free trade capitalism was at it's most unfettered. I wish I had a time machine.

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#13) On October 01, 2009 at 1:34 AM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

"Russian professor predicts collapse of U.S within months"

OH FER CRYIN' OUT LOUD!!!!  Alstry is a russian professor?!?!?!?

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#14) On October 01, 2009 at 4:11 PM, topsecret09 (87.88) wrote:

2009 at 1:34 AM, jddubya (94.11OH FER CRYIN' OUT LOUD!!!!  Alstry is a russian professor?!?!?!?     LOL !!!!!!!!!       

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#15) On October 02, 2009 at 1:18 PM, Schmacko (91.08) wrote:

I guess the big question for the 200-250ish year reign thing is does that take into account the period of time the nation was on the way up, or is it 200+ years at the "peak" of their power?  The US wasn't really a world super power until post WW2... I think the Suez Canal Crisis is really seen as when Britain kind of lost it's status of big bully on the block and the US took over.  However you could definitely make the argument that the US was at it's most "imperalistic" earlier in history during the 1800s and the whole manifest destiny time, mexican-american war, and spanish-american war.

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#16) On October 02, 2009 at 1:25 PM, catoismymotor (< 20) wrote:

I understand the math and have heard this position taken before. It has never impressed me. In my opinion the professor in question is suffering from a serious case of sour grapes. This is like a Boston fan claiming to see the inevitable collapse of the Yankees franchise.

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#17) On October 02, 2009 at 1:32 PM, starbucks4ever (79.83) wrote:

Most likely he is just an attention-seeking type. Get publicity, no matter what kind of publicity, and monetize it by selling interviews - that seems to be the current game plan. And this should work, somewhat, in his native country, where he will find a receptive audience among nostalgic apparatchiks who haven't forgotten anything but haven't learned anything either.

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#18) On October 02, 2009 at 1:50 PM, matthewbanis (54.72) wrote:

topsecret09 ...

are you kidding me in regards to the poll???  It was setup by a kid...and frankly, the only real racism is reverse racism. 

Barack says we need to have a conversation about race in America . Fair enough. But this time, it has to be a two-way conversation. White America needs to be heard from, not just lectured to... This time, the Silent Majority needs to have its convictions, grievances and demands heard. And among them are these:

First, America has been the best country on earth for black folks. It was here that 600,000 black people, brought from Africa in slave ships, grew into a community of 40 million, were introduced to Christian salvation, and reached the greatest levels of freedom and prosperity blacks have ever known. Wright ought to go down on his knees and thank God he is an American.

Second, no people anywhere has done more to lift up blacks than white Americans.  Untold trillions have been spent since the ' 60s on welfare, food stamps, rent supplements, Section 8 housing, Pell grants, student loans, legal services, Medicaid, Earned Income Tax Credits and poverty programs designed to bring the African-American community into the mainstream . Governments, businesses and colleges have engaged in discrimination against white folks -- with affirmative action, contract set-asides and quotas -- to advance black applicants over white applicants. Churches, foundations, civic groups, schools and individuals all over America have donated their time and money to support soup kitchens, adult education,  day care, retirement and nursing homes for  blacks.

We hear the grievances. Where is the gratitude???

Barack talks about new 'ladders of opportunity' for blacks. Let him go to Altoona ? And Johnstown , and ask the white kids in Catholic schools how many were visited lately by Ivy League recruiters handing out scholarships  for 'deserving' white kids.? Is white America really responsible for the fact that the crime and incarceration rates for African-Americans are seven times those of white America ?  Is it really white America 's fault that illegitimacy in the African-American community has hit 70 percent and the black dropout rate from high schools in some cities has reached 50 percent?

Is that the fault of white America or, first and foremost, a failure of the black community itself?

As for racism, its ugliest manifestation is in interracial crime, and especially interracial crimes of violence. Is Barack Obama aware that while white criminals choose black victims 3 percent of the time, black criminals choose white victims 45 percent of the time?

Is Barack aware that black-on-white rapes are 100 times more common than the reverse, that black-on-white robberies were 139 times as common in the first three years of this decade as the reverse?

We have all heard ad nauseam from the Rev. Al about Tawana Brawley, the Duke rape case and Jena . And all turned out to be hoaxes. But about the epidemic of black assaults on whites that are real, we hear nothing.

Sorry, Barack, some of us have heard it all before, about 40 years and 40 trillion tax dollars ago.

We are a Christian Nation even if Mr.Obama says we are not.

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#19) On October 02, 2009 at 1:56 PM, matthewbanis (54.72) wrote:

oh yeah, that was written by Patrick Bucanon.

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