March 02, 2009
– Comments (23)
Target reached, time to start researching, not necessarily time to start buying...
May I ask which sectors you'll be looking at on the long side?
I'm trying to develop a buy list to use if and when a day comes when stocks are real freefall mode.
Sweet! That's one small step for a bear, one large step for bear-kind. :)
I'll definitely be interested to sweet when (and what) dwot longs...
Semis, oils, and discount retail is what I'm looking into fwiw.
To be honest, I am a little too busy to take a serious look right now and market history suggests that there is a good 1-2 year time frame to be making decisions so I am not in a rush.
Definitely want to look at energy, but I think it has some more hurting to do before it is time to get in.
Y'all be careful out there. Congress and the Federal Reserve still can't find their rears in the dark and there's still not a concrete strategy for how to resolve the defunct business model these investment banks are clinging to with clammy, dead hands. Until we fix the 'bad asset' problem I say Look out below! We may not be at the bottom yet, but one thing's for certain we only have 6800 points left in the Dow before we find one.
Hmm.... looking for longs while we have a foreclosure mortatorium at the four biggest lenders in the country? Not wise.
I agree with Dwot, it will take some time. I posted on Lessons from Benjamin Graham regarding buying securities in a Depression environment that provides some guidance for the next few years.
Dwot wrote; "Market history suggests that there is a good 1-2 year time frame to be making decisions so I am not in a rush."
You see if I know only one thing for sure, it's in 1-2 year time frame, S&P will be no where near 700. So I guess you have to narrow your time frame a little bit if you want to have a real skin in the game or just expect a different number than 700. Best!
PS. How is the average Canadian thinks about the "buy America" thing?
I don't really think we'll be no where near 700. Maybe 550, or 500, but not much lower than that.
I know it's en vogue to be bearish, and I am still moderately bearish on the economy.
But I've got a sizeable low-ball limit order out there and will be adding another on Friday. The key is what you buy and your time horizon. Mine is around 15 years, so I can begin to average into solid companies.
"You see if I know only one thing for sure, it's in 1-2 year time frame, S&P will be no where near 700"
in a good or bad way?
I almost went long today, almost....I think we have not seen the lows,yet. But stuff that stayed green today is a good place to start.
I like energy, gun and ammo makers and rail roads long term.
I thought you had a proposal to add 200 stocks to the S&P 500. In retrospect, I wish that were the case.
I think once I was done warning people and the market crashed I have just kind of withdrawn to a certain extent. I have just been watching enough to make sure that I move quickly if I see something I don't like. I suppose I have my eye looking for something that would trigger massive inflation as I don't want to remain in cash if I see that happening. At this point although longer term there might be something to make that happen, I do not see it right now. Actually, longer term I do not see how this works out without devaluing assets and the dollar. But, there needs to be a way to increase wages before that can really happen and I don't see that happening.
i believe u can start to scale into the "best of breed" slowly in quarters.
Woohoo! Yay dwot! Been waiting for you to come out of hiding. It's all ponies and lolly pops from here!
Seriously, I agree completely with this: "Market history suggests that there is a good 1-2 year time frame to be making decisions so I am not in a rush."
And the answer to the question everyone wants to know:
Q. What are the first real longs to play?
A. Specific commodities, commodity stocks, and energy plays.
Q. Should I go long now?
A. No, see dwot's comment above. And there is an incredible amount of bad news still coming. It still might be years away. Japan at least had a growing world economy to work with. We've got squat.
Q. I don't care, I want to go long now.
A. Don't do it!
Two things that I keep at the back of my mind, in the 30s the market went to 11c on the dollar from the peak and in the Asian crisis one of the markets went to something like 13c on the dollar.
So, keeping that in mind, no rush at all....
"Target reached", hmm.. What's the next target?
I dunno, there is merit to the S&P 600 range. While I still maintain dividend paying longs, I am just reluctant to commit new funds. I do buy T every month, but otherwise I am on hold and weep mode.
It really is all my fualt. When I opened my Fidelity account last March, I warned my broker to sell everything because the market will now crash. They were waiting for me. And sure enough I get back into the worse market since the Great Depression. Sorry gang ;(
I set a similar target for myself in September that the sp500 would hit 700. However that target was at a time when I was forecasting the 2009 sp500 operating earnings to be at 58-62 while the official forecasts were north of 100. I seriously underestimated how far the E in P/E would drop. Its hard for me to call a market bottom w/o having a good handle on what the operating earnings will be for the overall market in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, etc. Thus thats where I'll be focusing my time/research for now. With the FFT at 25bp and all sorts of T*** acronyms throwing trillions of dollars around .... there will be plenty of companies/entities making plenty of money in the Bubble of 2010-2012.
Xucolat, you might say target reached to start investing time in looking around and assessing opportunities...
Good to see your posting more again...I am curious: What has kept you out of the market rather than short in RL?
Research yes. A green thumb in some sectors sure, because they won't sink as fast as the S&P so you'll get a decent caps score. Buy in real life? Hell no. Sorry, but still way too many stormclouds on the horizon in an already bad situation.
Anybody read what is going on in Europe? Countries are going to become insolvent, not companies. Austria, Sweden, Greece are in a lot of trouble due to banks making risky loans to eastern european countries that are now defaulting that are in the range of 2.2 trillion dollars.Those countries can't afford to bail out their banks without help from other EU countries.
Oh yea hear about the 500 billion emergency money that the FDIC is asking for? You know this is bad.My gut instict is telling me that Bofa and WF are going to be insolvent by year end and that was before I read about the 500 billion emergency. Wells is being way too quiet, their balance sheet is very disturbing and California is going down the tubes which is going to drag down WF even further.
And nothing is improving in the already bad situation with AIG, Citi, GM and now GE. This is not a normal recession, people, be very careful where you step..value traps are abound.
Looking for opportunities I certainly agree, though not sure if now is the right time to jump in, or otherwise sidelined while the carnage continues (if no bulls yet).